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Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.

Tennis · WTA · Semi-finalsWTA 500clayProjected pairing

Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco GauffCharleston Open WTA Semi-finals: prediction, predicted score & key players

Aryna Sabalenka

Win probability

54%

vs

Coco Gauff

Win probability

46%

Sabalenka 54%46% Gauff
Predicted score
6–4, 7–5

2–0

Start
Order of play TBC
Venue
Charleston
Format
Best of 3

clay

Apr 202603FriSemi-finals

Charleston Open WTA Semi-finals on 3 Apr 2026: our projection has Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff, with Aryna Sabalenka the 54% favourite and a predicted score of 6–4, 7–5.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Aryna Sabalenka is the marginal projected favourite at 54% over Coco Gauff (46%) in the Charleston Open WTA Semi-finals. It is a coin-flip lean, not a lock.

Lean: Aryna SabalenkaCourt: clayFormat: best of 3Tie-break: 26%

Charleston Open WTA moves into the Semi-finals on Friday 3 April 2026, with play at Charleston. A WTA 500 on green clay, which plays a little quicker than the red clay of Europe.

Our projection has Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff as the headline match of the Semi-finals. It comes from a projected bracket built on our reference player pool, not from the official draw, so the confirmed pairing can differ. Four are left, and the two winners meet in the final.

Aryna Sabalenka is an ultra-aggressive power baseliner with a huge serve and forehand. Coco Gauff is an athletic defender with a big serve and a growing attacking game. On slow, high-bouncing clay, our model leans Aryna Sabalenka, mainly through serve.

Match ticket

Match details

Date
Friday 3 April 2026
Tournament
Charleston Open WTA
Round
Semi-finals
Category
WTA 500
Venue
Charleston, USA
Main court
Credit One Stadium, Daniel Island
Surface
clay (slow pace)
Format
Singles, best of three sets
Ranking points
500 ranking points
Tour
WTA tour
Projected pairing
Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff (projection, not the official draw)

Pairings are projected. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Projected line-up

Charleston Open WTA Semi-finals predictions

Projected semi-finals pairings from our bracket model, with the headline match first. Percentages are for the first-named player.

  1. Aryna SabalenkaBLRUSACoco Gauff
    54%46%
  2. Iga SwiatekPOLITAJasmine Paolini
    73%27%

Projected title favourite for this event: Iga Swiatek.

These pairings are projections from our reference player pool, not the official draw.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

We compare Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff on four factors: fit for clay, serve, return and recent form. The combined lean is Aryna Sabalenka at 54%.

Model lean

Aryna Sabalenka

54% to win · 8-point gap

Sabalenka 54%46% Gauff

Aryna Sabalenka is the coin-flip pick because of a clear edge in serve. Coco Gauff keeps a 46% chance, mostly through surface fit and match-day variance.

Projected pairing: this comes from our reference player pool, so treat it as the shape of the round, not a confirmed order of play. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Slow, high-bouncing clay conditions favour patient baseliners and return games, which widens the gap between the two players' styles.

Aryna SabalenkaCoco Gauff
  • 46Surface fitRated on clay54
  • 64ServeFirst-serve weapon and hold games36
  • 46ReturnBreak-point pressure54
  • 61Recent formLevel over recent events39

Impact names

Key players to watch

Four names our model expects to matter in this round on clay: the two headline players and the next-best names from the projected bracket.

  • Belarus

    WTA

    Aryna Sabalenka

    Power · Big serve

    Impact78%

  • United States

    WTA

    Coco Gauff

    Defence · Athletic

    Impact77%

  • Poland

    WTA

    Iga Swiatek

    Clay · Topspin

    Impact81%

  • Italy

    WTA

    Jasmine Paolini

    Clay · Movement

    Impact73%

Names, countries and playing styles are real. Impact scores are a model reference. They are not a confirmed draw or line-up, so check the official order of play close to the match.

Scoreboard model

Predicted score & set markets

Aryna Sabalenka is projected to beat Coco Gauff 2–0, 6–4, 7–5. The next table shows how the set and games markets line up around that call.

Predicted score

6–4, 7–5

Aryna Sabalenka to beat Coco Gauff in 2–0

Every figure is an indicative model, not a live price. Sets and games are derived from a best of three sets format on clay.

Set score probability

  • Sabalenka 2–027.7%
  • Sabalenka 2–126.3%
  • Gauff 2–123.6%
  • Gauff 2–022.4%

  • Total games

    21–27

    Line 23.5. Average 23.8 games.

  • Tie-break

    26%

    About 11% per set.

  • Total aces

    9–14

    Sabalenka ~7, Gauff ~5.

  • Match length

    1h 56m–2h 28m

    About 2.5 sets expected.

Model lean for each tennis market
MarketModel leanWhy
Match winnerAryna Sabalenka 54%coin-flip lean over Coco Gauff (46%).
Set bettingAryna Sabalenka 2–02–0 for Sabalenka carries 28%. A deciding set is 50%.
Total gamesOver 23.5Model average is 23.8 games, in a range of 21–27.
Games handicapSabalenka −1.5Sabalenka is projected to win by about 2 more games than Gauff.
Tie-break in matchNo 74%About 11% per set on clay.
First set winnerSabalenka 52%Gauff takes at least one set 72% of the time.
Total aces9–14Sabalenka about 7, Gauff about 5.
Match length1h 56m–2h 28mBased on 2.5 sets at clay pace.

Popular tennis betting markets

The markets followers look at most for this match, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.

  • Match winner

    Back the player or nation you expect to win the match, whatever the score.

    Model lean: Aryna Sabalenka at 54%.

    How this market works

  • Set betting

    Pick the exact set score of a best of three sets match, such as 2–0.

    Most likely: Sabalenka 2–0, then a deciding set at 50%.

    How this market works

  • Total games

    Bet over or under a games line. Close, serve-led matches push the total up.

    Over 23.5 at a 23.8-game average.

    How this market works

  • Games handicap

    Give or take games to level up a mismatch, so the favourite has to win by a margin.

    Sabalenka −1.5 sits near the model's margin.

    How this market works

  • Tie-break market

    Predict whether any set reaches 6–6 and needs a tie-break.

    26% for at least one tie-break in the match.

    How this market works

  • Live tennis markets

    Prices move point by point, so first-set and break-of-serve lines can swing quickly.

    Gauff steals a set 72% of the time, which is why live lines matter.

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet this match?

  • A live contest, not a formality

    Our lean is coin-flip, so the market has two credible outcomes and the price for Coco Gauff is worth watching.

  • The court shapes the markets

    Slow, high-bouncing clay. It moves the total games line and the tie-break chance (26%), so surface reading is part of the edge.

  • Depth of markets

    Winner, set score, total games, handicap, tie-break, aces and first-set lines all exist for a WTA 500 semi-finals, so you can pick the one that matches what you actually think.

  • Live pricing

    A best of three sets match has many turning points. Break points and set momentum move live prices, and our model shows a 72% chance the underdog takes a set.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Fixture guide

About Charleston Open WTA Semi-finals

The Charleston Open WTA is a WTA 500 event, worth 500 ranking points to the champion. A WTA 500 on green clay, which plays a little quicker than the red clay of Europe.

The Semi-finals is played on clay at Credit One Stadium, Daniel Island. Players arrive after the Quarter-finals on 1 Apr 2026, and the Final follows on 5 Apr 2026.

Our schedule lists 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 1 Apr 2026, Semi-finals on 3 Apr 2026, Final on 5 Apr 2026. Order of play is published by the tournament the day before and can change with weather.

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Answers

Questions about Sabalenka vs Gauff

  1. The Semi-finals is listed for Friday 3 April 2026. Our schedule shows 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 1 Apr 2026, Semi-finals on 3 Apr 2026, Final on 5 Apr 2026.

  2. Our model leans Aryna Sabalenka at 54%, with Coco Gauff at 46%. This is a projection built on a reference player pool, not the official draw, and it is not a guarantee of the result.

  3. Aryna Sabalenka is projected to win 2–0, 6–4, 7–5. Straight sets carry 50% and a deciding set 50%.

  4. The Semi-finals is held in Charleston, USA, with the main court at Credit One Stadium, Daniel Island. The surface is clay, which plays slow, so rallies run longer.

  5. Singles matches are best of three sets. Four are left, and the two winners meet in the final.

  6. No. Pairings are set by the official draw, which is not part of our schedule data. We show a projected pairing from our reference player pool so you can see the shape of the round. Check the tournament's order of play for the confirmed match.

  7. Aryna Sabalenka (BLR), Coco Gauff (USA), Iga Swiatek (POL), Jasmine Paolini (ITA). These are reference names from our model and not confirmed line-ups.

  8. Common markets are match winner, set betting, total games, games handicap, tie-break, first-set winner and total aces. Prices move live, and our figures here are model references only.

  9. The champion earns 500 ranking points. The Semi-finals winner moves a step closer to that total.

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Pairings are a projection from our reference player pool and are not the official draw. Percentages, projected scores and impact figures are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the tournament. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

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