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Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.

Tennis · ATP · Semi-finalsATP 500indoor hard courtProjected pairing

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander ZverevRotterdam Open ATP Semi-finals: prediction, predicted score & key players

Carlos Alcaraz

Win probability

62%

vs

Alexander Zverev

Win probability

38%

Alcaraz 62%38% Zverev
Predicted score
6–4, 7–5

2–0

Start
Order of play TBC
Venue
Rotterdam
Format
Best of 3

indoor hard court

Feb 202613FriSemi-finals

Rotterdam Open ATP Semi-finals on 13 Feb 2026: our projection has Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev, with Carlos Alcaraz the 62% favourite and a predicted score of 6–4, 7–5.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Carlos Alcaraz is the projected favourite at 62% over Alexander Zverev (38%) in the Rotterdam Open ATP Semi-finals. It is a clear lean, not a lock.

Lean: Carlos AlcarazCourt: indoor hard courtFormat: best of 3Tie-break: 42%

The Rotterdam Open ATP (ATP 500) reaches the Semi-finals on Friday 13 February 2026 at Rotterdam Ahoy. An indoor ATP 500 at Rotterdam Ahoy, known for fast, low-bounce conditions.

Our projection has Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev as the headline match of the Semi-finals. It comes from a projected bracket built on our reference player pool, not from the official draw, so the confirmed pairing can differ. Four are left, and the two winners meet in the final.

Carlos Alcaraz is an all-court shot-maker who mixes raw power with drop shots and net play. Alexander Zverev is a tall baseliner with a big first serve and a heavy two-handed backhand. On fast indoor hard court, our model leans Carlos Alcaraz, mainly through recent form.

Match ticket

Match details

Date
Friday 13 February 2026
Tournament
Rotterdam Open ATP
Round
Semi-finals
Category
ATP 500
Venue
Rotterdam, Netherlands
Main court
Rotterdam Ahoy
Surface
indoor hard court (fast pace)
Format
Singles, best of three sets
Ranking points
500 ranking points
Tour
ATP tour
Projected pairing
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev (projection, not the official draw)

Pairings are projected. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Projected line-up

Rotterdam Open ATP Semi-finals predictions

Projected semi-finals pairings from our bracket model, with the headline match first. Percentages are for the first-named player.

  1. Carlos AlcarazESPGERAlexander Zverev
    62%38%
  2. Jannik SinnerITACZEJiri Lehecka
    86%14%

Projected title favourite for this event: Jannik Sinner.

These pairings are projections from our reference player pool, not the official draw.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

We compare Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev on four factors: fit for indoor hard court, serve, return and recent form. The combined lean is Carlos Alcaraz at 62%.

Model lean

Carlos Alcaraz

62% to win · 24-point gap

Alcaraz 62%38% Zverev

Carlos Alcaraz is the clear pick because of a clear edge in recent form. Alexander Zverev keeps a 38% chance, mostly through serve and match-day variance.

Projected pairing: this comes from our reference player pool, so treat it as the shape of the round, not a confirmed order of play. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Fast indoor hard court conditions reward big servers and short points, which narrows the gap between the two players' styles.

Carlos AlcarazAlexander Zverev
  • 57Surface fitRated on indoor hard court43
  • 41ServeFirst-serve weapon and hold games59
  • 64ReturnBreak-point pressure36
  • 70Recent formLevel over recent events30

Impact names

Key players to watch

Four names our model expects to matter in this round on indoor hard court: the two headline players and the next-best names from the projected bracket.

  • Spain

    ATP

    Carlos Alcaraz

    All-court · Clay & grass

    Impact80%

  • Germany

    ATP

    Alexander Zverev

    Big serve · Backhand

    Impact75%

  • Italy

    ATP

    Jannik Sinner

    Baseline power · Elite return

    Impact84%

  • Poland

    ATP

    Hubert Hurkacz

    Big serve · Fast courts

    Impact67%

Names, countries and playing styles are real. Impact scores are a model reference. They are not a confirmed draw or line-up, so check the official order of play close to the match.

Scoreboard model

Predicted score & set markets

Carlos Alcaraz is projected to beat Alexander Zverev 2–0, 6–4, 7–5. The next table shows how the set and games markets line up around that call.

Predicted score

6–4, 7–5

Carlos Alcaraz to beat Alexander Zverev in 2–0

Every figure is an indicative model, not a live price. Sets and games are derived from a best of three sets format on indoor hard court.

Set score probability

  • Alcaraz 2–033.7%
  • Alcaraz 2–128.3%
  • Zverev 2–120.4%
  • Zverev 2–017.6%

  • Total games

    22–28

    Line 24.5. Average 24.5 games.

  • Tie-break

    42%

    About 19% per set.

  • Total aces

    16–25

    Alcaraz ~9, Zverev ~11.

  • Match length

    1h 37m–2h 03m

    About 2.5 sets expected.

Model lean for each tennis market
MarketModel leanWhy
Match winnerCarlos Alcaraz 62%clear lean over Alexander Zverev (38%).
Set bettingCarlos Alcaraz 2–02–0 for Alcaraz carries 34%. A deciding set is 49%.
Total gamesUnder 24.5Model average is 24.5 games, in a range of 22–28.
Games handicapAlcaraz −2.5Alcaraz is projected to win by about 3 more games than Zverev.
Tie-break in matchNo 58%About 19% per set on indoor hard court.
First set winnerAlcaraz 57%Zverev takes at least one set 66% of the time.
Total aces16–25Alcaraz about 9, Zverev about 11.
Match length1h 37m–2h 03mBased on 2.5 sets at indoor hard court pace.

Popular tennis betting markets

The markets followers look at most for this match, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.

  • Match winner

    Back the player or nation you expect to win the match, whatever the score.

    Model lean: Carlos Alcaraz at 62%.

    How this market works

  • Set betting

    Pick the exact set score of a best of three sets match, such as 2–0.

    Most likely: Alcaraz 2–0, then a deciding set at 49%.

    How this market works

  • Total games

    Bet over or under a games line. Close, serve-led matches push the total up.

    Under 24.5 at a 24.5-game average.

    How this market works

  • Games handicap

    Give or take games to level up a mismatch, so the favourite has to win by a margin.

    Alcaraz −2.5 sits near the model's margin.

    How this market works

  • Tie-break market

    Predict whether any set reaches 6–6 and needs a tie-break.

    42% for at least one tie-break in the match.

    How this market works

  • Live tennis markets

    Prices move point by point, so first-set and break-of-serve lines can swing quickly.

    Zverev steals a set 66% of the time, which is why live lines matter.

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet this match?

  • A clear storyline

    Carlos Alcaraz carry a clear lean, so the interest is in the score and games markets, where the favourite still has to convert.

  • The court shapes the markets

    Fast indoor hard court. It moves the total games line and the tie-break chance (42%), so surface reading is part of the edge.

  • Depth of markets

    Winner, set score, total games, handicap, tie-break, aces and first-set lines all exist for a ATP 500 semi-finals, so you can pick the one that matches what you actually think.

  • Live pricing

    A best of three sets match has many turning points. Break points and set momentum move live prices, and our model shows a 66% chance the underdog takes a set.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Fixture guide

About Rotterdam Open ATP Semi-finals

The Rotterdam Open ATP is a ATP 500 event, worth 500 ranking points to the champion. An indoor ATP 500 at Rotterdam Ahoy, known for fast, low-bounce conditions.

The Semi-finals is played on indoor hard court at Rotterdam Ahoy. Players arrive after the Quarter-finals on 11 Feb 2026, and the Final follows on 15 Feb 2026.

Our schedule lists 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 11 Feb 2026, Semi-finals on 13 Feb 2026, Final on 15 Feb 2026. Order of play is published by the tournament the day before and can change with weather.

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Answers

Questions about Alcaraz vs Zverev

  1. The Semi-finals is listed for Friday 13 February 2026. Our schedule shows 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 11 Feb 2026, Semi-finals on 13 Feb 2026, Final on 15 Feb 2026.

  2. Our model leans Carlos Alcaraz at 62%, with Alexander Zverev at 38%. This is a projection built on a reference player pool, not the official draw, and it is not a guarantee of the result.

  3. Carlos Alcaraz is projected to win 2–0, 6–4, 7–5. Straight sets carry 51% and a deciding set 49%.

  4. The Semi-finals is held in Rotterdam, Netherlands, with the main court at Rotterdam Ahoy. The surface is indoor hard court, which plays fast, so servers get more free points.

  5. Singles matches are best of three sets. Four are left, and the two winners meet in the final.

  6. No. Pairings are set by the official draw, which is not part of our schedule data. We show a projected pairing from our reference player pool so you can see the shape of the round. Check the tournament's order of play for the confirmed match.

  7. Carlos Alcaraz (ESP), Alexander Zverev (GER), Jannik Sinner (ITA), Hubert Hurkacz (POL). These are reference names from our model and not confirmed line-ups.

  8. Common markets are match winner, set betting, total games, games handicap, tie-break, first-set winner and total aces. Prices move live, and our figures here are model references only.

  9. The champion earns 500 ranking points. The Semi-finals winner moves a step closer to that total.

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Pairings are a projection from our reference player pool and are not the official draw. Percentages, projected scores and impact figures are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the tournament. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

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