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Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.

Tennis · ATP · Quarter-finalsATP 500hard courtProjected pairing

Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-AliassimeQatar Open ATP Quarter-finals: prediction, predicted score & key players

Carlos Alcaraz

Win probability

80%

vs

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Win probability

20%

Alcaraz 80%20% Auger-Aliassime
Predicted score
6–3, 6–4

2–0

Start
Order of play TBC
Venue
Doha
Format
Best of 3

hard court

Feb 202617TueQuarter-finals

Qatar Open ATP Quarter-finals on 17 Feb 2026: our projection has Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime, with Carlos Alcaraz the 80% favourite and a predicted score of 6–3, 6–4.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Carlos Alcaraz is the projected favourite at 80% over Felix Auger-Aliassime (20%) in the Qatar Open ATP Quarter-finals. It is a strong lean, not a lock.

Lean: Carlos AlcarazCourt: hard courtFormat: best of 3Tie-break: 36%

On Tuesday 17 February 2026 the Qatar Open ATP (ATP 500) plays its Quarter-finals in Doha. An ATP 500 in Doha, played on outdoor hard courts in the Gulf.

Our projection has Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime as the headline match of the Quarter-finals. It comes from a projected bracket built on our reference player pool, not from the official draw, so the confirmed pairing can differ. Eight are left in the event, and the four winners go through to the semi-finals.

Carlos Alcaraz is an all-court shot-maker who mixes raw power with drop shots and net play. Felix Auger-Aliassime is a serve-first player with a heavy forehand and a strong indoor record. On medium-pace hard court, our model leans Carlos Alcaraz, mainly through return.

Match ticket

Match details

Date
Tuesday 17 February 2026
Tournament
Qatar Open ATP
Round
Quarter-finals
Category
ATP 500
Venue
Doha, Qatar
Main court
Khalifa International Tennis and Squash Complex, Doha
Surface
hard court (medium pace)
Format
Singles, best of three sets
Ranking points
500 ranking points
Tour
ATP tour
Projected pairing
Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (projection, not the official draw)

Pairings are projected. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Projected line-up

Qatar Open ATP Quarter-finals predictions

Projected quarter-finals pairings from our bracket model, with the headline match first. Percentages are for the first-named player.

  1. Carlos AlcarazESPCANFelix Auger-Aliassime
    80%20%
  2. Novak DjokovicSRBGERAlexander Zverev
    62%38%
  3. Jannik SinnerITARUSKaren Khachanov
    86%14%
  4. Ben SheltonUSAUSATaylor Fritz
    49%51%

Projected title favourite for this event: Jannik Sinner.

These pairings are projections from our reference player pool, not the official draw.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

We compare Carlos Alcaraz and Felix Auger-Aliassime on four factors: fit for hard court, serve, return and recent form. The combined lean is Carlos Alcaraz at 80%.

Model lean

Carlos Alcaraz

80% to win · 60-point gap

Alcaraz 80%20% Auger-Aliassime

Carlos Alcaraz is the strong pick because of a clear edge in return. Felix Auger-Aliassime keeps a 20% chance, mostly through serve and match-day variance.

Projected pairing: this comes from our reference player pool, so treat it as the shape of the round, not a confirmed order of play. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Medium-pace hard court conditions sit between serve-led and baseline styles, which widens the gap between the two players' styles.

Carlos AlcarazFelix Auger-Aliassime
  • 66Surface fitRated on hard court34
  • 41ServeFirst-serve weapon and hold games59
  • 75ReturnBreak-point pressure25
  • 73Recent formLevel over recent events27

Impact names

Key players to watch

Four names our model expects to matter in this round on hard court: the two headline players and the next-best names from the projected bracket.

  • Spain

    ATP

    Carlos Alcaraz

    All-court · Clay & grass

    Impact81%

  • Canada

    ATP

    Felix Auger-Aliassime

    Big serve · Forehand

    Impact71%

  • Italy

    ATP

    Jannik Sinner

    Baseline power · Elite return

    Impact84%

  • Serbia

    ATP

    Novak Djokovic

    Best return · Big-match pedigree

    Impact77%

Names, countries and playing styles are real. Impact scores are a model reference. They are not a confirmed draw or line-up, so check the official order of play close to the match.

Scoreboard model

Predicted score & set markets

Carlos Alcaraz is projected to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime 2–0, 6–3, 6–4. The next table shows how the set and games markets line up around that call.

Predicted score

6–3, 6–4

Carlos Alcaraz to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in 2–0

Every figure is an indicative model, not a live price. Sets and games are derived from a best of three sets format on hard court.

Set score probability

  • Alcaraz 2–050.8%
  • Alcaraz 2–129.2%
  • Auger-Aliassime 2–111.8%
  • Auger-Aliassime 2–08.2%

  • Total games

    19–25

    Line 22.5. Average 22.3 games.

  • Tie-break

    36%

    About 17% per set.

  • Total aces

    13–20

    Alcaraz ~8, Auger-Aliassime ~9.

  • Match length

    1h 37m–2h 03m

    About 2.4 sets expected.

Model lean for each tennis market
MarketModel leanWhy
Match winnerCarlos Alcaraz 80%strong lean over Felix Auger-Aliassime (20%).
Set bettingCarlos Alcaraz 2–02–0 for Alcaraz carries 51%. A deciding set is 41%.
Total gamesUnder 22.5Model average is 22.3 games, in a range of 19–25.
Games handicapAlcaraz −5.5Alcaraz is projected to win by about 6 more games than Auger-Aliassime.
Tie-break in matchNo 64%About 17% per set on hard court.
First set winnerAlcaraz 69%Auger-Aliassime takes at least one set 49% of the time.
Total aces13–20Alcaraz about 8, Auger-Aliassime about 9.
Match length1h 37m–2h 03mBased on 2.4 sets at hard court pace.

Popular tennis betting markets

The markets followers look at most for this match, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.

  • Match winner

    Back the player or nation you expect to win the match, whatever the score.

    Model lean: Carlos Alcaraz at 80%.

    How this market works

  • Set betting

    Pick the exact set score of a best of three sets match, such as 2–0.

    Most likely: Alcaraz 2–0, then a deciding set at 41%.

    How this market works

  • Total games

    Bet over or under a games line. Close, serve-led matches push the total up.

    Under 22.5 at a 22.3-game average.

    How this market works

  • Games handicap

    Give or take games to level up a mismatch, so the favourite has to win by a margin.

    Alcaraz −5.5 sits near the model's margin.

    How this market works

  • Tie-break market

    Predict whether any set reaches 6–6 and needs a tie-break.

    36% for at least one tie-break in the match.

    How this market works

  • Live tennis markets

    Prices move point by point, so first-set and break-of-serve lines can swing quickly.

    Auger-Aliassime steals a set 49% of the time, which is why live lines matter.

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet this match?

  • A clear storyline

    Carlos Alcaraz carry a strong lean, so the interest is in the score and games markets, where the favourite still has to convert.

  • The court shapes the markets

    Medium-pace hard court. It moves the total games line and the tie-break chance (36%), so surface reading is part of the edge.

  • Depth of markets

    Winner, set score, total games, handicap, tie-break, aces and first-set lines all exist for a ATP 500 quarter-finals, so you can pick the one that matches what you actually think.

  • Live pricing

    A best of three sets match has many turning points. Break points and set momentum move live prices, and our model shows a 49% chance the underdog takes a set.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Fixture guide

About Qatar Open ATP Quarter-finals

The Qatar Open ATP is a ATP 500 event, worth 500 ranking points to the champion. An ATP 500 in Doha, played on outdoor hard courts in the Gulf.

The Quarter-finals is played on hard court at Khalifa International Tennis and Squash Complex, Doha. Players start with the opening fixture listed, and the Semi-finals follows on 18 Feb 2026.

Our schedule lists 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 17 Feb 2026, Semi-finals on 18 Feb 2026, Final on 21 Feb 2026. Order of play is published by the tournament the day before and can change with weather.

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Answers

Questions about Alcaraz vs Auger-Aliassime

  1. The Quarter-finals is listed for Tuesday 17 February 2026. Our schedule shows 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 17 Feb 2026, Semi-finals on 18 Feb 2026, Final on 21 Feb 2026.

  2. Our model leans Carlos Alcaraz at 80%, with Felix Auger-Aliassime at 20%. This is a projection built on a reference player pool, not the official draw, and it is not a guarantee of the result.

  3. Carlos Alcaraz is projected to win 2–0, 6–3, 6–4. Straight sets carry 59% and a deciding set 41%.

  4. The Quarter-finals is held in Doha, Qatar, with the main court at Khalifa International Tennis and Squash Complex, Doha. The surface is hard court, which plays at a medium pace.

  5. Singles matches are best of three sets. Eight are left in the event, and the four winners go through to the semi-finals.

  6. No. Pairings are set by the official draw, which is not part of our schedule data. We show a projected pairing from our reference player pool so you can see the shape of the round. Check the tournament's order of play for the confirmed match.

  7. Carlos Alcaraz (ESP), Felix Auger-Aliassime (CAN), Jannik Sinner (ITA), Novak Djokovic (SRB). These are reference names from our model and not confirmed line-ups.

  8. Common markets are match winner, set betting, total games, games handicap, tie-break, first-set winner and total aces. Prices move live, and our figures here are model references only.

  9. The champion earns 500 ranking points. The Quarter-finals winner moves a step closer to that total.

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Pairings are a projection from our reference player pool and are not the official draw. Percentages, projected scores and impact figures are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the tournament. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

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