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Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.

Tennis · ATP · Quarter-finalsATP 500hard courtProjected pairing

Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil MedvedevDubai Tennis Championships ATP Quarter-finals: prediction, predicted score & key players

Carlos Alcaraz

Win probability

76%

vs

Daniil Medvedev

Win probability

24%

Alcaraz 76%24% Medvedev
Predicted score
6–3, 6–4

2–0

Start
Order of play TBC
Venue
Dubai
Format
Best of 3

hard court

Feb 202624TueQuarter-finals

Dubai Tennis Championships ATP Quarter-finals on 24 Feb 2026: our projection has Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev, with Carlos Alcaraz the 76% favourite and a predicted score of 6–3, 6–4.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Carlos Alcaraz is the projected favourite at 76% over Daniil Medvedev (24%) in the Dubai Tennis Championships ATP Quarter-finals. It is a strong lean, not a lock.

Lean: Carlos AlcarazCourt: hard courtFormat: best of 3Tie-break: 30%

On Tuesday 24 February 2026 the Dubai Tennis Championships ATP (ATP 500) plays its Quarter-finals in Dubai. An ATP 500 on outdoor hard courts, played after dark under floodlights.

Our projection has Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev as the headline match of the Quarter-finals. It comes from a projected bracket built on our reference player pool, not from the official draw, so the confirmed pairing can differ. Eight are left in the event, and the four winners go through to the semi-finals.

Carlos Alcaraz is an all-court shot-maker who mixes raw power with drop shots and net play. Daniil Medvedev is a flat, deep-standing counter-puncher with unorthodox patterns. On medium-pace hard court, our model leans Carlos Alcaraz, mainly through recent form.

Match ticket

Match details

Date
Tuesday 24 February 2026
Tournament
Dubai Tennis Championships ATP
Round
Quarter-finals
Category
ATP 500
Venue
Dubai, UAE
Main court
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Stadium
Surface
hard court (medium pace)
Format
Singles, best of three sets
Ranking points
500 ranking points
Tour
ATP tour
Projected pairing
Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev (projection, not the official draw)

Pairings are projected. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Projected line-up

Dubai Tennis Championships ATP Quarter-finals predictions

Projected quarter-finals pairings from our bracket model, with the headline match first. Percentages are for the first-named player.

  1. Carlos AlcarazESPRUSDaniil Medvedev
    76%24%
  2. Jannik SinnerITAGBRJack Draper
    85%15%
  3. Novak DjokovicSRBUSATommy Paul
    77%23%
  4. Ben SheltonUSAFRAArthur Fils
    63%37%

Projected title favourite for this event: Jannik Sinner.

These pairings are projections from our reference player pool, not the official draw.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

We compare Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev on four factors: fit for hard court, serve, return and recent form. The combined lean is Carlos Alcaraz at 76%.

Model lean

Carlos Alcaraz

76% to win · 52-point gap

Alcaraz 76%24% Medvedev

Carlos Alcaraz is the strong pick because of a clear edge in recent form. Daniil Medvedev keeps a 24% chance, mostly through match-day variance.

Projected pairing: this comes from our reference player pool, so treat it as the shape of the round, not a confirmed order of play. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Medium-pace hard court conditions sit between serve-led and baseline styles, which widens the gap between the two players' styles.

Carlos AlcarazDaniil Medvedev
  • 63Surface fitRated on hard court37
  • 54ServeFirst-serve weapon and hold games46
  • 54ReturnBreak-point pressure46
  • 78Recent formLevel over recent events22

Impact names

Key players to watch

Four names our model expects to matter in this round on hard court: the two headline players and the next-best names from the projected bracket.

  • Spain

    ATP

    Carlos Alcaraz

    All-court · Clay & grass

    Impact81%

  • Russia

    ATP

    Daniil Medvedev

    Counter-punch · Return

    Impact72%

  • Italy

    ATP

    Jannik Sinner

    Baseline power · Elite return

    Impact84%

  • Serbia

    ATP

    Novak Djokovic

    Best return · Big-match pedigree

    Impact77%

Names, countries and playing styles are real. Impact scores are a model reference. They are not a confirmed draw or line-up, so check the official order of play close to the match.

Scoreboard model

Predicted score & set markets

Carlos Alcaraz is projected to beat Daniil Medvedev 2–0, 6–3, 6–4. The next table shows how the set and games markets line up around that call.

Predicted score

6–3, 6–4

Carlos Alcaraz to beat Daniil Medvedev in 2–0

Every figure is an indicative model, not a live price. Sets and games are derived from a best of three sets format on hard court.

Set score probability

  • Alcaraz 2–046.4%
  • Alcaraz 2–129.6%
  • Medvedev 2–113.8%
  • Medvedev 2–010.2%

  • Total games

    20–26

    Line 22.5. Average 22.8 games.

  • Tie-break

    30%

    About 13% per set.

  • Total aces

    12–18

    Alcaraz ~8, Medvedev ~7.

  • Match length

    1h 38m–2h 05m

    About 2.4 sets expected.

Model lean for each tennis market
MarketModel leanWhy
Match winnerCarlos Alcaraz 76%strong lean over Daniil Medvedev (24%).
Set bettingCarlos Alcaraz 2–02–0 for Alcaraz carries 46%. A deciding set is 43%.
Total gamesOver 22.5Model average is 22.8 games, in a range of 20–26.
Games handicapAlcaraz −4.5Alcaraz is projected to win by about 5 more games than Medvedev.
Tie-break in matchNo 70%About 13% per set on hard court.
First set winnerAlcaraz 66%Medvedev takes at least one set 54% of the time.
Total aces12–18Alcaraz about 8, Medvedev about 7.
Match length1h 38m–2h 05mBased on 2.4 sets at hard court pace.

Popular tennis betting markets

The markets followers look at most for this match, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.

  • Match winner

    Back the player or nation you expect to win the match, whatever the score.

    Model lean: Carlos Alcaraz at 76%.

    How this market works

  • Set betting

    Pick the exact set score of a best of three sets match, such as 2–0.

    Most likely: Alcaraz 2–0, then a deciding set at 43%.

    How this market works

  • Total games

    Bet over or under a games line. Close, serve-led matches push the total up.

    Over 22.5 at a 22.8-game average.

    How this market works

  • Games handicap

    Give or take games to level up a mismatch, so the favourite has to win by a margin.

    Alcaraz −4.5 sits near the model's margin.

    How this market works

  • Tie-break market

    Predict whether any set reaches 6–6 and needs a tie-break.

    30% for at least one tie-break in the match.

    How this market works

  • Live tennis markets

    Prices move point by point, so first-set and break-of-serve lines can swing quickly.

    Medvedev steals a set 54% of the time, which is why live lines matter.

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet this match?

  • A clear storyline

    Carlos Alcaraz carry a strong lean, so the interest is in the score and games markets, where the favourite still has to convert.

  • The court shapes the markets

    Medium-pace hard court. It moves the total games line and the tie-break chance (30%), so surface reading is part of the edge.

  • Depth of markets

    Winner, set score, total games, handicap, tie-break, aces and first-set lines all exist for a ATP 500 quarter-finals, so you can pick the one that matches what you actually think.

  • Live pricing

    A best of three sets match has many turning points. Break points and set momentum move live prices, and our model shows a 54% chance the underdog takes a set.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Fixture guide

About Dubai Tennis Championships ATP Quarter-finals

The Dubai Tennis Championships ATP is a ATP 500 event, worth 500 ranking points to the champion. An ATP 500 on outdoor hard courts, played after dark under floodlights.

The Quarter-finals is played on hard court at Dubai Duty Free Tennis Stadium. Players start with the opening fixture listed, and the Semi-finals follows on 25 Feb 2026.

Our schedule lists 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 24 Feb 2026, Semi-finals on 25 Feb 2026, Final on 28 Feb 2026. Order of play is published by the tournament the day before and can change with weather.

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Answers

Questions about Alcaraz vs Medvedev

  1. The Quarter-finals is listed for Tuesday 24 February 2026. Our schedule shows 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 24 Feb 2026, Semi-finals on 25 Feb 2026, Final on 28 Feb 2026.

  2. Our model leans Carlos Alcaraz at 76%, with Daniil Medvedev at 24%. This is a projection built on a reference player pool, not the official draw, and it is not a guarantee of the result.

  3. Carlos Alcaraz is projected to win 2–0, 6–3, 6–4. Straight sets carry 57% and a deciding set 43%.

  4. The Quarter-finals is held in Dubai, UAE, with the main court at Dubai Duty Free Tennis Stadium. The surface is hard court, which plays at a medium pace.

  5. Singles matches are best of three sets. Eight are left in the event, and the four winners go through to the semi-finals.

  6. No. Pairings are set by the official draw, which is not part of our schedule data. We show a projected pairing from our reference player pool so you can see the shape of the round. Check the tournament's order of play for the confirmed match.

  7. Carlos Alcaraz (ESP), Daniil Medvedev (RUS), Jannik Sinner (ITA), Novak Djokovic (SRB). These are reference names from our model and not confirmed line-ups.

  8. Common markets are match winner, set betting, total games, games handicap, tie-break, first-set winner and total aces. Prices move live, and our figures here are model references only.

  9. The champion earns 500 ranking points. The Quarter-finals winner moves a step closer to that total.

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Pairings are a projection from our reference player pool and are not the official draw. Percentages, projected scores and impact figures are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the tournament. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

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