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Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.

Tennis · WTA · Quarter-finalsWTA 1000clayProjected pairing

Iga Swiatek vs Jessica PegulaItalian Open WTA Quarter-finals: prediction, predicted score & key players

Iga Swiatek

Win probability

83%

vs

Jessica Pegula

Win probability

17%

Swiatek 83%17% Pegula
Predicted score
6–2, 6–3

2–0

Start
Order of play TBC
Venue
Rome
Format
Best of 3

clay

May 202609SatQuarter-finals

Italian Open WTA Quarter-finals on 9 May 2026: our projection has Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula, with Iga Swiatek the 83% favourite and a predicted score of 6–2, 6–3.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Iga Swiatek is the projected favourite at 83% over Jessica Pegula (17%) in the Italian Open WTA Quarter-finals. It is a strong lean, not a lock.

Lean: Iga SwiatekCourt: clayFormat: best of 3Tie-break: 10%

The Italian Open WTA (WTA 1000) reaches the Quarter-finals on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Campo Centrale. The last big clay WTA 1000 before Roland Garros, played at the Foro Italico in Rome.

Our projection has Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula as the headline match of the Quarter-finals. It comes from a projected bracket built on our reference player pool, not from the official draw, so the confirmed pairing can differ. Eight are left in the event, and the four winners go through to the semi-finals.

Iga Swiatek is a heavy-topspin forehand player with elite movement and the clay benchmark. Jessica Pegula is a compact baseliner who redirects pace and returns well. On slow, high-bouncing clay, our model leans Iga Swiatek, mainly through surface fit.

Match ticket

Match details

Date
Saturday 9 May 2026
Tournament
Italian Open WTA
Round
Quarter-finals
Category
WTA 1000
Venue
Rome, Italy
Main court
Campo Centrale, Foro Italico, Rome
Surface
clay (slow pace)
Format
Singles, best of three sets
Ranking points
1,000 ranking points
Tour
WTA tour
Projected pairing
Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula (projection, not the official draw)

Pairings are projected. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Projected line-up

Italian Open WTA Quarter-finals predictions

Projected quarter-finals pairings from our bracket model, with the headline match first. Percentages are for the first-named player.

  1. Iga SwiatekPOLUSAJessica Pegula
    83%17%
  2. Coco GauffUSACHNQinwen Zheng
    84%16%
  3. Elena RybakinaKAZCZEKarolina Muchova
    59%41%
  4. Jasmine PaoliniITAUSAMadison Keys
    67%33%

Projected title favourite for this event: Iga Swiatek.

These pairings are projections from our reference player pool, not the official draw.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

We compare Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula on four factors: fit for clay, serve, return and recent form. The combined lean is Iga Swiatek at 83%.

Model lean

Iga Swiatek

83% to win · 66-point gap

Swiatek 83%17% Pegula

Iga Swiatek is the strong pick because of a clear edge in surface fit. Jessica Pegula keeps a 17% chance, mostly through match-day variance.

Projected pairing: this comes from our reference player pool, so treat it as the shape of the round, not a confirmed order of play. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Slow, high-bouncing clay conditions favour patient baseliners and return games, which widens the gap between the two players' styles.

Iga SwiatekJessica Pegula
  • 78Surface fitRated on clay22
  • 57ServeFirst-serve weapon and hold games43
  • 61ReturnBreak-point pressure39
  • 61Recent formLevel over recent events39

Impact names

Key players to watch

Four names our model expects to matter in this round on clay: the two headline players and the next-best names from the projected bracket.

  • Poland

    WTA

    Iga Swiatek

    Clay · Topspin

    Impact81%

  • United States

    WTA

    Jessica Pegula

    Consistency · Return

    Impact67%

  • United States

    WTA

    Coco Gauff

    Defence · Athletic

    Impact77%

  • Italy

    WTA

    Jasmine Paolini

    Clay · Movement

    Impact73%

Names, countries and playing styles are real. Impact scores are a model reference. They are not a confirmed draw or line-up, so check the official order of play close to the match.

Scoreboard model

Predicted score & set markets

Iga Swiatek is projected to beat Jessica Pegula 2–0, 6–2, 6–3. The next table shows how the set and games markets line up around that call.

Predicted score

6–2, 6–3

Iga Swiatek to beat Jessica Pegula in 2–0

Every figure is an indicative model, not a live price. Sets and games are derived from a best of three sets format on clay.

Set score probability

  • Swiatek 2–054.5%
  • Swiatek 2–128.5%
  • Pegula 2–110.1%
  • Pegula 2–06.9%

  • Total games

    18–24

    Line 21.5. Average 21.2 games.

  • Tie-break

    10%

    About 4% per set.

  • Total aces

    7–10

    Swiatek ~5, Pegula ~4.

  • Match length

    1h 48m–2h 18m

    About 2.4 sets expected.

Model lean for each tennis market
MarketModel leanWhy
Match winnerIga Swiatek 83%strong lean over Jessica Pegula (17%).
Set bettingIga Swiatek 2–02–0 for Swiatek carries 55%. A deciding set is 39%.
Total gamesUnder 21.5Model average is 21.2 games, in a range of 18–24.
Games handicapSwiatek −5.5Swiatek is projected to win by about 6 more games than Pegula.
Tie-break in matchNo 90%About 4% per set on clay.
First set winnerSwiatek 71%Pegula takes at least one set 45% of the time.
Total aces7–10Swiatek about 5, Pegula about 4.
Match length1h 48m–2h 18mBased on 2.4 sets at clay pace.

Popular tennis betting markets

The markets followers look at most for this match, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.

  • Match winner

    Back the player or nation you expect to win the match, whatever the score.

    Model lean: Iga Swiatek at 83%.

    How this market works

  • Set betting

    Pick the exact set score of a best of three sets match, such as 2–0.

    Most likely: Swiatek 2–0, then a deciding set at 39%.

    How this market works

  • Total games

    Bet over or under a games line. Close, serve-led matches push the total up.

    Under 21.5 at a 21.2-game average.

    How this market works

  • Games handicap

    Give or take games to level up a mismatch, so the favourite has to win by a margin.

    Swiatek −5.5 sits near the model's margin.

    How this market works

  • Tie-break market

    Predict whether any set reaches 6–6 and needs a tie-break.

    10% for at least one tie-break in the match.

    How this market works

  • Live tennis markets

    Prices move point by point, so first-set and break-of-serve lines can swing quickly.

    Pegula steals a set 45% of the time, which is why live lines matter.

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet this match?

  • A clear storyline

    Iga Swiatek carry a strong lean, so the interest is in the score and games markets, where the favourite still has to convert.

  • The court shapes the markets

    Slow, high-bouncing clay. It moves the total games line and the tie-break chance (10%), so surface reading is part of the edge.

  • Depth of markets

    Winner, set score, total games, handicap, tie-break, aces and first-set lines all exist for a WTA 1000 quarter-finals, so you can pick the one that matches what you actually think.

  • Live pricing

    A best of three sets match has many turning points. Break points and set momentum move live prices, and our model shows a 45% chance the underdog takes a set.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Fixture guide

About Italian Open WTA Quarter-finals

The Italian Open WTA is a WTA 1000 event, worth 1,000 ranking points to the champion. The last big clay WTA 1000 before Roland Garros, played at the Foro Italico in Rome.

The Quarter-finals is played on clay at Campo Centrale, Foro Italico, Rome. Players start with the opening fixture listed, and the Semi-finals follows on 12 May 2026.

Our schedule lists 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 9 May 2026, Semi-finals on 12 May 2026, Final on 17 May 2026. Order of play is published by the tournament the day before and can change with weather.

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Answers

Questions about Swiatek vs Pegula

  1. The Quarter-finals is listed for Saturday 9 May 2026. Our schedule shows 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 9 May 2026, Semi-finals on 12 May 2026, Final on 17 May 2026.

  2. Our model leans Iga Swiatek at 83%, with Jessica Pegula at 17%. This is a projection built on a reference player pool, not the official draw, and it is not a guarantee of the result.

  3. Iga Swiatek is projected to win 2–0, 6–2, 6–3. Straight sets carry 61% and a deciding set 39%.

  4. The Quarter-finals is held in Rome, Italy, with the main court at Campo Centrale, Foro Italico, Rome. The surface is clay, which plays slow, so rallies run longer.

  5. Singles matches are best of three sets. Eight are left in the event, and the four winners go through to the semi-finals.

  6. No. Pairings are set by the official draw, which is not part of our schedule data. We show a projected pairing from our reference player pool so you can see the shape of the round. Check the tournament's order of play for the confirmed match.

  7. Iga Swiatek (POL), Jessica Pegula (USA), Coco Gauff (USA), Jasmine Paolini (ITA). These are reference names from our model and not confirmed line-ups.

  8. Common markets are match winner, set betting, total games, games handicap, tie-break, first-set winner and total aces. Prices move live, and our figures here are model references only.

  9. The champion earns 1,000 ranking points. The Quarter-finals winner moves a step closer to that total.

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Pairings are a projection from our reference player pool and are not the official draw. Percentages, projected scores and impact figures are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the tournament. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

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