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Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.

Tennis · ATP · Quarter-finalsATP Masters 1000clayProjected pairing

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey RublevItalian Open ATP Quarter-finals: prediction, predicted score & key players

Carlos Alcaraz

Win probability

86%

vs

Andrey Rublev

Win probability

14%

Alcaraz 86%14% Rublev
Predicted score
6–2, 6–3

2–0

Start
Order of play TBC
Venue
Rome
Format
Best of 3

clay

May 202609SatQuarter-finals

Italian Open ATP Quarter-finals on 9 May 2026: our projection has Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev, with Carlos Alcaraz the 86% favourite and a predicted score of 6–2, 6–3.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Carlos Alcaraz is the projected favourite at 86% over Andrey Rublev (14%) in the Italian Open ATP Quarter-finals. It is a strong lean, not a lock.

Lean: Carlos AlcarazCourt: clayFormat: best of 3Tie-break: 18%

Italian Open ATP moves into the Quarter-finals on Saturday 9 May 2026, with play at Rome. The last big clay Masters 1000 before Roland Garros, played at the Foro Italico in Rome.

Our projection has Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev as the headline match of the Quarter-finals. It comes from a projected bracket built on our reference player pool, not from the official draw, so the confirmed pairing can differ. Eight are left in the event, and the four winners go through to the semi-finals.

Carlos Alcaraz is an all-court shot-maker who mixes raw power with drop shots and net play. Andrey Rublev is an aggressive, forehand-led baseliner who hits big from the back. On slow, high-bouncing clay, our model leans Carlos Alcaraz, mainly through recent form.

Match ticket

Match details

Date
Saturday 9 May 2026
Tournament
Italian Open ATP
Round
Quarter-finals
Category
ATP Masters 1000
Venue
Rome, Italy
Main court
Campo Centrale, Foro Italico, Rome
Surface
clay (slow pace)
Format
Singles, best of three sets
Ranking points
1,000 ranking points
Tour
ATP tour
Projected pairing
Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev (projection, not the official draw)

Pairings are projected. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Projected line-up

Italian Open ATP Quarter-finals predictions

Projected quarter-finals pairings from our bracket model, with the headline match first. Percentages are for the first-named player.

  1. Carlos AlcarazESPRUSAndrey Rublev
    86%14%
  2. Novak DjokovicSRBITALorenzo Musetti
    54%46%
  3. Jannik SinnerITACANFelix Auger-Aliassime
    83%17%
  4. Holger RuneDENAUSAlex de Minaur
    57%43%

Projected title favourite for this event: Carlos Alcaraz.

These pairings are projections from our reference player pool, not the official draw.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

We compare Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev on four factors: fit for clay, serve, return and recent form. The combined lean is Carlos Alcaraz at 86%.

Model lean

Carlos Alcaraz

86% to win · 72-point gap

Alcaraz 86%14% Rublev

Carlos Alcaraz is the strong pick because of a clear edge in recent form. Andrey Rublev keeps a 14% chance, mostly through match-day variance.

Projected pairing: this comes from our reference player pool, so treat it as the shape of the round, not a confirmed order of play. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Slow, high-bouncing clay conditions favour patient baseliners and return games, which widens the gap between the two players' styles.

Carlos AlcarazAndrey Rublev
  • 77Surface fitRated on clay23
  • 57ServeFirst-serve weapon and hold games43
  • 68ReturnBreak-point pressure32
  • 78Recent formLevel over recent events22

Impact names

Key players to watch

Four names our model expects to matter in this round on clay: the two headline players and the next-best names from the projected bracket.

  • Spain

    ATP

    Carlos Alcaraz

    All-court · Clay & grass

    Impact83%

  • Russia

    ATP

    Andrey Rublev

    Forehand · Aggressive

    Impact67%

  • Italy

    ATP

    Jannik Sinner

    Baseline power · Elite return

    Impact80%

  • Serbia

    ATP

    Novak Djokovic

    Best return · Big-match pedigree

    Impact76%

Names, countries and playing styles are real. Impact scores are a model reference. They are not a confirmed draw or line-up, so check the official order of play close to the match.

Scoreboard model

Predicted score & set markets

Carlos Alcaraz is projected to beat Andrey Rublev 2–0, 6–2, 6–3. The next table shows how the set and games markets line up around that call.

Predicted score

6–2, 6–3

Carlos Alcaraz to beat Andrey Rublev in 2–0

Every figure is an indicative model, not a live price. Sets and games are derived from a best of three sets format on clay.

Set score probability

  • Alcaraz 2–058.5%
  • Alcaraz 2–127.5%
  • Rublev 2–18.5%
  • Rublev 2–05.5%

  • Total games

    18–24

    Line 20.5. Average 20.8 games.

  • Tie-break

    18%

    About 8% per set.

  • Total aces

    8–13

    Alcaraz ~6, Rublev ~5.

  • Match length

    1h 47m–2h 16m

    About 2.4 sets expected.

Model lean for each tennis market
MarketModel leanWhy
Match winnerCarlos Alcaraz 86%strong lean over Andrey Rublev (14%).
Set bettingCarlos Alcaraz 2–02–0 for Alcaraz carries 59%. A deciding set is 36%.
Total gamesOver 20.5Model average is 20.8 games, in a range of 18–24.
Games handicapAlcaraz −6.5Alcaraz is projected to win by about 7 more games than Rublev.
Tie-break in matchNo 82%About 8% per set on clay.
First set winnerAlcaraz 74%Rublev takes at least one set 41% of the time.
Total aces8–13Alcaraz about 6, Rublev about 5.
Match length1h 47m–2h 16mBased on 2.4 sets at clay pace.

Popular tennis betting markets

The markets followers look at most for this match, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.

  • Match winner

    Back the player or nation you expect to win the match, whatever the score.

    Model lean: Carlos Alcaraz at 86%.

    How this market works

  • Set betting

    Pick the exact set score of a best of three sets match, such as 2–0.

    Most likely: Alcaraz 2–0, then a deciding set at 36%.

    How this market works

  • Total games

    Bet over or under a games line. Close, serve-led matches push the total up.

    Over 20.5 at a 20.8-game average.

    How this market works

  • Games handicap

    Give or take games to level up a mismatch, so the favourite has to win by a margin.

    Alcaraz −6.5 sits near the model's margin.

    How this market works

  • Tie-break market

    Predict whether any set reaches 6–6 and needs a tie-break.

    18% for at least one tie-break in the match.

    How this market works

  • Live tennis markets

    Prices move point by point, so first-set and break-of-serve lines can swing quickly.

    Rublev steals a set 41% of the time, which is why live lines matter.

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet this match?

  • A clear storyline

    Carlos Alcaraz carry a strong lean, so the interest is in the score and games markets, where the favourite still has to convert.

  • The court shapes the markets

    Slow, high-bouncing clay. It moves the total games line and the tie-break chance (18%), so surface reading is part of the edge.

  • Depth of markets

    Winner, set score, total games, handicap, tie-break, aces and first-set lines all exist for a ATP Masters 1000 quarter-finals, so you can pick the one that matches what you actually think.

  • Live pricing

    A best of three sets match has many turning points. Break points and set momentum move live prices, and our model shows a 41% chance the underdog takes a set.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Fixture guide

About Italian Open ATP Quarter-finals

The Italian Open ATP is a ATP Masters 1000 event, worth 1,000 ranking points to the champion. The last big clay Masters 1000 before Roland Garros, played at the Foro Italico in Rome.

The Quarter-finals is played on clay at Campo Centrale, Foro Italico, Rome. Players start with the opening fixture listed, and the Semi-finals follows on 12 May 2026.

Our schedule lists 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 9 May 2026, Semi-finals on 12 May 2026, Final on 17 May 2026. Order of play is published by the tournament the day before and can change with weather.

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Answers

Questions about Alcaraz vs Rublev

  1. The Quarter-finals is listed for Saturday 9 May 2026. Our schedule shows 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 9 May 2026, Semi-finals on 12 May 2026, Final on 17 May 2026.

  2. Our model leans Carlos Alcaraz at 86%, with Andrey Rublev at 14%. This is a projection built on a reference player pool, not the official draw, and it is not a guarantee of the result.

  3. Carlos Alcaraz is projected to win 2–0, 6–2, 6–3. Straight sets carry 64% and a deciding set 36%.

  4. The Quarter-finals is held in Rome, Italy, with the main court at Campo Centrale, Foro Italico, Rome. The surface is clay, which plays slow, so rallies run longer.

  5. Singles matches are best of three sets. Eight are left in the event, and the four winners go through to the semi-finals.

  6. No. Pairings are set by the official draw, which is not part of our schedule data. We show a projected pairing from our reference player pool so you can see the shape of the round. Check the tournament's order of play for the confirmed match.

  7. Carlos Alcaraz (ESP), Andrey Rublev (RUS), Jannik Sinner (ITA), Novak Djokovic (SRB). These are reference names from our model and not confirmed line-ups.

  8. Common markets are match winner, set betting, total games, games handicap, tie-break, first-set winner and total aces. Prices move live, and our figures here are model references only.

  9. The champion earns 1,000 ranking points. The Quarter-finals winner moves a step closer to that total.

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Pairings are a projection from our reference player pool and are not the official draw. Percentages, projected scores and impact figures are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the tournament. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

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