AI overview · What this page shows
Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.
England
Projected
166–191
India
Projected
170–196
England vs India (5th T20I) at The Rose Bowl on 11 Jul 2026: our model leans India at 56% on a balanced surface, with a projected first-innings total of 170–196.
At a glance
AI overview
India get the nod at 56% in this 5th T20I, with England at 44%. It is a modest lean, not a lock.
England meet India for match 5 of 8 in the India tour of England, 2026, a T20I at The Rose Bowl, Southampton. It is listed for Saturday 11 July 2026, with the start at 19:30 IST. England have home conditions on their side, which our model counts as a small edge.
Both sides lean on their batting depth, so the contest is likely to be decided by whoever handles the big overs better. The Rose Bowl is a large bowl that holds true bounce and rewards patient, straight batting, so we expect a balanced surface with a first-innings score around 170–196 for India and 166–191 for England.
Summer cloud is common, and a damp start can bring seam and swing before the surface flattens. The toss lean is to bowl first. Most captains chase on a true surface because they can pace the innings to a target.
Match ticket
Cricket dates follow each series window, so confirm the exact day with the host board.
Win probability
England 44%, India 56%. That is a modest lean rather than a lock.
Model lean
India
56% to win · 12-point gap
The split comes from batting, pace and spin ratings for both teams, adjusted for The Rose Bowl and England's home conditions. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.
On a true surface, India's batting depth gets the extra weight in the model.
The toss can shift this by a few points either way, so check the split again once the captains have spoken.
Impact names
Four names our model expects to move this match on balanced conditions.
England
Batter
Harry Brook
Anchor of the innings
England
Fast bowler
Mark Wood
Death-overs specialist
India
All-rounder
Hardik Pandya
Finisher with the ball in hand
India
Batter
Shubman Gill
Anchor of the innings
These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed selection. Check the official team announcement close to the toss.
Scoreboard model
Projected runs for each phase of the 20-over innings, followed by the cumulative over-by-over curve.
| Phase | England | India |
|---|---|---|
| PowerplayOvers 1–6 | 49–56 | 50–57 |
| Middle oversOvers 7–15 | 65–74 | 67–76 |
| Death oversOvers 16–20 | 52–61 | 53–63 |
| First innings | 166–191 | 170–196 |
Overs bowled
After 6 overs
ENG 53IND 54
After 15 overs
ENG 122IND 125
After 20 overs
ENG 179IND 183
Ranges cover roughly a normal spread of outcomes for The Rose Bowl. A collapse or a big partnership can sit well outside them.
Team details
Both sides lean on their batting depth, so the contest is likely to be decided by whoever handles the big overs better.
England come in with an aggressive, front-foot batting group and a pace attack that likes helpful conditions. In this T20I, their batting depth is their strongest suit.
The Rose Bowl is a fair test rather than an obvious fit. Familiar home conditions help their planning. Their key question is how they handle India's batting depth.
India come in with a deep batting order, high-quality spin and a pace attack that peaks with the new ball. In this T20I, their batting depth is their strongest suit.
The Rose Bowl is a fair test rather than an obvious fit. Their key question is how they handle England's batting depth.
The Rose Bowl is a large bowl that holds true bounce and rewards patient, straight batting. Our surface tag for this match is balanced, with a scoring index of 3 out of 5.
Batting looks easier early, so the side that wins the powerplay tends to hold the edge.
Summer cloud is common, and a damp start can bring seam and swing before the surface flattens.
Venue: The Rose Bowl, Southampton. Surface tags are editorial estimates and can change on the day.
Market guide
The markets most followers look at for England vs India, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.
A straight pick on which team wins. In limited-overs cricket there are two outcomes, plus a tie or no result.
Model split: England 44%, India 56%.
How this market worksA market on the coin toss that settles before play starts.
Toss lean is to bowl first on this surface.
How this market worksA session-style line on how many runs a side scores in the first 6 overs.
England 49–56, India 50–57.
How this market worksOver-or-under lines on a side's final first-innings score.
England 166–191, India 170–196.
How this market worksPicks the leading run-scorer or wicket-taker for a team or the match.
Harry Brook and Mark Wood are on our watchlist for England.
How this market worksPrices move ball by ball with wickets, run rate and required rate.
England usually see the biggest swing if they take early wickets.
How this market worksBetting tips
Practical points to check before you act. None of these is a guarantee.
Read the surface before the toss
The Rose Bowl is tagged balanced. Expect scores at or above the ground average once batters are set.
Wait for the toss
The lean is to bowl first. If a captain does the opposite, treat it as new information and check the split again before you act.
Trade the powerplay and the death overs separately
Our projection puts the powerplay at 49–56 for England and 50–57 for India, and the death overs at 52–61 and 53–63.
Check the team news
Playing XIs are announced close to the toss. A missing key player, such as Harry Brook or Hardik Pandya, moves this model by several points.
Set a limit first
Decide what you can afford before the match starts and stop when you reach it. No model, tip or past result guarantees an outcome.
The case for this match
England keep it interesting
India are ahead at 56%, but England have enough in their batting depth to make the market move quickly.
Match 5 of 8 in the India tour of England
Series context shapes selection and tactics. Results earlier in the series give a clearer read on form and combinations.
Balanced conditions add an edge
On a balanced surface the big overs tend to carry the most information, so live markets can move quickly.
Depth of markets
A T20I at The Rose Bowl normally carries match odds, toss, session runs and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.
For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.
Same series
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Answers
Our model leans India at 56% against England at 44%, a modest lean. It is based on team ratings and conditions at The Rose Bowl, and it is not a guarantee.
The Rose Bowl is a large bowl that holds true bounce and rewards patient, straight batting. We tag it balanced with a scoring index of 3 out of 5. Batting looks easier early, so the side that wins the powerplay tends to hold the edge.
Our model projects England at 166–191 and India at 170–196 for the first-innings total. Treat these as ranges, not promises.
The lean is to bowl first. Most captains chase on a true surface because they can pace the innings to a target.
It is listed for Saturday 11 July 2026, with a scheduled start of 19:30 IST, at The Rose Bowl, Southampton. Cricket schedules in our source list a date window for each series, so this day is a planning date. Confirm the exact day with the host board before you plan around it.
Our watchlist has Harry Brook (England, anchor of the innings), Mark Wood (England, death-overs specialist), Hardik Pandya (India, finisher with the ball in hand), Shubman Gill (India, anchor of the innings). These are reference names and not confirmed selections. The playing XI is announced close to the toss.
England play at home, which our model counts as a small edge because they know the surface and conditions.
A T20I gives each side 20 overs. The powerplay and death overs carry most of the swing.
No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.
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Ask on WhatsAppPercentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.
