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Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.
England
Projected
263–307
India
Projected
270–314
England vs India (2nd ODI) at Sophia Gardens on 16 Jul 2026: our model leans India at 63% on a green / seam surface, with a projected first-innings total of 270–314.
At a glance
AI overview
India get the nod at 63% in this 2nd ODI, with England at 37%. It is a clear lean, not a lock.
Sophia Gardens hosts England against India in the 2nd ODI, number 7 in an 8-match India tour of England, 2026. It is listed for Thursday 16 July 2026, with the start at 19:30 IST. England have home conditions on their side, which our model counts as a small edge.
England's edge is their pace attack, while India's is their batting depth. The side whose strength suits Sophia Gardens gets the first say. Sophia Gardens is a Welsh ground where cloud cover can bring the ball off the seam, so we expect a green / seam surface with a first-innings score around 270–314 for India and 263–307 for England.
Summer cloud is common, and a damp start can bring seam and swing before the surface flattens. The toss lean is to bowl first. Early movement makes bowling first attractive while the surface still has life.
Match ticket
Cricket dates follow each series window, so confirm the exact day with the host board.
Win probability
England 37%, India 63%. It is a clear lean, and the toss and the first powerplay can move it.
Model lean
India
63% to win · 26-point gap
The split comes from batting, pace and spin ratings for both teams, adjusted for Sophia Gardens and England's home conditions. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.
On a green / seam surface, India's pace group gets the extra weight in the model.
The toss can shift this by a few points either way, so check the split again once the captains have spoken.
Impact names
Four names our model expects to move this match on green / seam conditions.
England
All-rounder
Ben Stokes
Two-way match-winner
England
Fast bowler
Chris Woakes
Swing threat
India
Fast bowler
Jasprit Bumrah
Swing threat
India
All-rounder
Hardik Pandya
Balance of the XI
These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed selection. Check the official team announcement close to the toss.
Scoreboard model
Projected runs for each phase of the 50-over innings, followed by the cumulative over-by-over curve.
| Phase | England | India |
|---|---|---|
| PowerplayOvers 1–10 | 50–58 | 51–59 |
| Middle oversOvers 11–40 | 138–159 | 142–163 |
| Death oversOvers 41–50 | 75–90 | 77–92 |
| First innings | 263–307 | 270–314 |
Overs bowled
After 10 overs
ENG 54IND 55
After 40 overs
ENG 202IND 207
After 50 overs
ENG 285IND 292
Ranges cover roughly a normal spread of outcomes for Sophia Gardens. A collapse or a big partnership can sit well outside them.
Team details
England's edge is their pace attack, while India's is their batting depth. The side whose strength suits Sophia Gardens gets the first say.
England come in with an aggressive, front-foot batting group and a pace attack that likes helpful conditions. In this ODI, their pace attack is their strongest suit.
Sophia Gardens suits their pace group. Familiar home conditions help their planning. Their key question is how they handle India's batting depth.
India come in with a deep batting order, high-quality spin and a pace attack that peaks with the new ball. In this ODI, their batting depth is their strongest suit.
Sophia Gardens suits their pace group. Their key question is how they handle England's pace attack.
Sophia Gardens is a Welsh ground where cloud cover can bring the ball off the seam. Our surface tag for this match is green / seam, with a scoring index of 3 out of 5.
Bowling first is usually favoured while there is still moisture and movement on offer.
Summer cloud is common, and a damp start can bring seam and swing before the surface flattens.
Venue: Sophia Gardens, Cardiff. Surface tags are editorial estimates and can change on the day.
Market guide
The markets most followers look at for England vs India, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.
A straight pick on which team wins. In limited-overs cricket there are two outcomes, plus a tie or no result.
Model split: England 37%, India 63%.
How this market worksA market on the coin toss that settles before play starts.
Toss lean is to bowl first on this surface.
How this market worksA session-style line on how many runs a side scores in the first 10 overs.
England 50–58, India 51–59.
How this market worksOver-or-under lines on a side's final first-innings score.
England 263–307, India 270–314.
How this market worksPicks the leading run-scorer or wicket-taker for a team or the match.
Ben Stokes and Chris Woakes are on our watchlist for England.
How this market worksPrices move ball by ball with wickets, run rate and required rate.
England usually see the biggest swing if they take early wickets.
How this market worksBetting tips
Practical points to check before you act. None of these is a guarantee.
Read the surface before the toss
Sophia Gardens is tagged green / seam. Early movement usually favours the bowlers, so expect early wickets.
Wait for the toss
The lean is to bowl first. If a captain does the opposite, treat it as new information and check the split again before you act.
Trade the powerplay and the death overs separately
Our projection puts the powerplay at 50–58 for England and 51–59 for India, and the death overs at 75–90 and 77–92.
Check the team news
Playing XIs are announced close to the toss. A missing key player, such as Ben Stokes or Jasprit Bumrah, moves this model by several points.
Set a limit first
Decide what you can afford before the match starts and stop when you reach it. No model, tip or past result guarantees an outcome.
The case for this match
England keep it interesting
India are ahead at 63%, but England have enough in their pace attack to make the market move quickly.
Match 7 of 8 in the India tour of England
Series context shapes selection and tactics. Results earlier in the series give a clearer read on form and combinations.
Green / seam conditions add an edge
On a green / seam surface the early overs tend to carry the most information, so live markets can move quickly.
Depth of markets
A ODI at Sophia Gardens normally carries match odds, toss, session runs and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.
For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.
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Answers
Our model leans India at 63% against England at 37%, a clear lean. It is based on team ratings and conditions at Sophia Gardens, and it is not a guarantee.
Sophia Gardens is a Welsh ground where cloud cover can bring the ball off the seam. We tag it green / seam with a scoring index of 3 out of 5. Bowling first is usually favoured while there is still moisture and movement on offer.
Our model projects England at 263–307 and India at 270–314 for the first-innings total. Treat these as ranges, not promises.
The lean is to bowl first. Early movement makes bowling first attractive while the surface still has life.
It is listed for Thursday 16 July 2026, with a scheduled start of 19:30 IST, at Sophia Gardens, Cardiff. Cricket schedules in our source list a date window for each series, so this day is a planning date. Confirm the exact day with the host board before you plan around it.
Our watchlist has Ben Stokes (England, two-way match-winner), Chris Woakes (England, swing threat), Jasprit Bumrah (India, swing threat), Hardik Pandya (India, balance of the xi). These are reference names and not confirmed selections. The playing XI is announced close to the toss.
England play at home, which our model counts as a small edge because they know the surface and conditions.
An ODI gives each side 50 overs. The middle overs shape the platform and the final ten decide close games.
No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.
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Ask on WhatsAppPercentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.
