AI overview · What this page shows
Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.
Italy
Projected
1:0
HT 0-0
Switzerland
Italy vs Switzerland (Match 35, Group K) at Levi's Stadium on 28 Jun 2026: our model leans Italy at 42% and projects 1-0 after 90 minutes.
Team details
Italy are stronger in both attack (80/100) and defence (85/100), so the question is whether Switzerland can disrupt their rhythm.
Expected shape 4-3-3
Italy are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 shape, with tactical discipline, a compact block and a midfield that recycles the ball patiently. Their best unit in this match is the defence.
The key question is how they handle Switzerland's territory and control of the midfield, while protecting against turning possession into clear chances.
Expected shape 3-4-2-1
Switzerland are expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 shape, with a compact back three, disciplined wing-backs and a side that rarely loses its structure. Their best unit in this match is the midfield.
The key question is how they handle Italy's a compact, organised back line, while protecting against turning possession into clear chances.
Ratings are editorial estimates on a 0 to 100 scale and formations are expected shapes, not confirmed line-ups.
Prediction board
Full-time result, goals and handicap lines from our indicative model. Reference figures, not live prices.
ITA win
42%
Model lean
Draw
29%
SUI win
29%
Both teams to score
49%
A clean sheet is a real possibility.
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Combined expected goals: 2.4.
Asian handicap
Italy -0.25
Italy carry the handicap on an expected goal gap of 0.3.
First-goal window
11–44'
Busiest goal spell: 76–90'. Chance of 0-0: 9%.
At a glance
AI overview
Italy get the modest nod at 42%, with Switzerland at 29% and the draw at 29%. It is a lean, not a lock.
Italy face Switzerland in Match 35, Group K of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Levi's Stadium, San Francisco. It is listed for Sunday 28 June 2026, with kick-off at 15:00 ET, which is 12:30 am IST (29 Jun) in India. It is a neutral venue for both sides, so the model gives neither a home edge.
Italy are stronger in both attack (80/100) and defence (85/100), so the question is whether Switzerland can disrupt their rhythm. Two names that could tilt it are Gianluca Scamacca for Italy and Breel Embolo for Switzerland.
Levi's Stadium is an open-air ground with dry, mild evenings and a fast surface. Our model projects 1-0 at full time on expected goals of 1.3 for Italy and 1.1 for Switzerland, with the first goal typically arriving between minutes 11–44.
Win probability
Italy 42%, draw 29%, Switzerland 29% over 90 minutes. That is a modest gap rather than a lock.
Model lean
Italy
42% to win · 13-point gap
The split comes from attack, midfield and defence ratings for both teams, adjusted for Levi's Stadium. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.
Italy's strongest unit is a compact, organised back line, and Switzerland's weakest point is turning possession into clear chances. That is the pairing to watch as the game settles.
Confirmed line-ups are usually published about an hour before kick-off, so check the split again once the teams are named.
Impact names
Six names our model expects to shape Italy vs Switzerland, with an impact score and a chance to score at any time.
Italy
Midfielder
Nicolo Barella
Sets the tempo
Anytime scorer10%
Italy
Striker
Gianluca Scamacca
Runs the channels and finishes
Anytime scorer37%
Italy
Centre-back
Alessandro Bastoni
Aerial threat at set pieces
Anytime scorer6%
Switzerland
Midfielder
Granit Xhaka
Sets the tempo
Anytime scorer8%
Switzerland
Striker
Breel Embolo
Runs the channels and finishes
Anytime scorer31%
Switzerland
Centre-back
Manuel Akanji
Aerial threat at set pieces
Anytime scorer5%
These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed line-up. Check the official team announcement about an hour before kick-off.
Scoreboard model
Projected score, half-time position and the goal markets for Italy vs Switzerland, built from expected goals of 1.3 for Italy and 1.1 for Switzerland.
Projected scoreboard
Full time
1-0
Half time
0-0
Likeliest scorelines
Half-time result: Italy 31%, draw 45%, Switzerland 24%.
| Team stat | Italy | Switzerland |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Possession | 54% | 46% |
| Shots | 9–11 | 8–10 |
| Shots on target | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Clean sheet | 26% | 34% |
Half-time result first, full-time result second.
Total expected goals: 2.4.
Probabilities come from a Poisson goals model with a small adjustment for low scores. They are indicative reference figures, not live prices, and one red card or early goal can move every line.
What each market means, with the reference figure from our model. These are not live prices.
A straight pick on a home win, a draw or an away win after 90 minutes.
Model split: Italy 42%, draw 29%, Switzerland 29%.
How this market worksYes if each side scores at least once, whatever the final result.
Model: Yes 49%, No 51%. Clean sheet: Italy 26%, Switzerland 34%.
How this market worksA line on total goals. Over needs three or more, Under needs two or fewer.
Model: Over 2.5 43%, Under 2.5 57%. Over 1.5 70%, Over 3.5 22%.
How this market worksBacks the result at half time and at full time together, so there are nine outcomes.
Likeliest: ITA / ITA 25%, then Draw / Draw 19%.
How this market worksGives one side a head start or a deficit in goals, which removes the draw from many lines.
Model line: Italy -0.25.
How this market worksA player scores at any point in normal time. Own goals do not count in most books.
Gianluca Scamacca leads our list at 37%, then Breel Embolo (31%) and Nicolo Barella (10%).
How this market worksThe case for this match
Switzerland keep it interesting
Italy are ahead at 42%, but Switzerland have enough in their territory and control of the midfield to make the market move quickly.
Match 35 in the FIFA World Cup 2026
Group games shape the table, so points and goal difference matter as well as the result.
First goal around minutes 11–44
The model expects the opener between minutes 11–44, and the busiest spell for goals is 76–90. Live markets often move fastest around those moments.
Depth of markets
A World Cup fixture like this normally carries 1X2, both teams to score, over/under, HT/FT, handicap and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.
For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.
Match ticket
About this fixture: Italy vs Switzerland at Levi's Stadium.
Levi's Stadium in San Francisco Bay Area is an open-air ground with dry, mild evenings and a fast surface.
Conditions look reasonable, so tactics and quality should matter more than the weather.
Neither side has home advantage, so squad depth and tactical flexibility carry more weight.
Keep following
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View matchMexico vs Spain
SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
View matchRead before you follow
Events
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Guide
Football on Gold365 is the same OTP ID with the football list open: 1X2, totals, live markets where marked — no second ID, no weekly salary.
Events
Knockout football on Gold365: 90 minutes versus extra time versus to-qualify markets. Watch the stream before going live — no fake bracket predictions.
Keep exploring
Answers
Our model leans Italy at 42% against Switzerland at 29%, with the draw at 29%. It is a modest lean based on team ratings and conditions at Levi's Stadium, and it is not a guarantee.
The model projects 1-0 at full time and 0-0 at half time. The next likeliest scorelines are 1-0 (11%) and 0-0 (10%).
The likeliest half-time/full-time combination is ITA / ITA at 25%. Both teams to score is 49%, Over 2.5 goals is 43% and combined expected goals are 2.4.
Our watchlist has Nicolo Barella (Italy, midfielder), Gianluca Scamacca (Italy, striker), Alessandro Bastoni (Italy, centre-back), Granit Xhaka (Switzerland, midfielder), Breel Embolo (Switzerland, striker), Manuel Akanji (Switzerland, centre-back). These are reference names, not confirmed line-ups. Starting XIs are announced about an hour before kick-off.
It is listed for Sunday 28 June 2026, with kick-off at 15:00 ET, which is 12:30 am IST (29 Jun) in India, at Levi's Stadium, San Francisco.
Italy are modelled in a 4-3-3 and Switzerland in a 3-4-2-1. Formations are editorial estimates and can change with team news.
The model expects the first goal between minutes 11–44, with 76–90 the busiest 15-minute spell for goals. The chance of a 0-0 draw is 9%.
Yes. Neither Italy nor Switzerland is at home, so the model does not apply a venue adjustment.
The 2026 World Cup has 48 teams in 12 groups of four. The top two in each group and the eight best third-placed teams reach the round of 32.
No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.
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Ask on WhatsAppPercentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.
