AI overview · What this page shows
Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.
Mexico
Projected
0:1
HT 0-0
Spain
Mexico vs Spain (Round of 32) at SoFi Stadium on 28 Jun 2026: our model leans Spain at 52% and projects 0-1 after 90 minutes.
Team details
Spain are stronger in both attack (89/100) and defence (85/100), so the question is whether Mexico can disrupt their rhythm.
Expected shape 4-3-3
Mexico are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 shape, with quick, short passing on the ground, a lively front line and a loud home crowd behind them. Their best unit in this match is the midfield.
The key question is how they handle Spain's territory and control of the midfield, while protecting against space behind the back line.
Expected shape 4-3-3
Spain are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 shape, with possession-first football, short passing triangles and a midfield that decides where the game is played. Their best unit in this match is the midfield.
The key question is how they handle Mexico's territory and control of the midfield, while protecting against space behind the back line.
Ratings are editorial estimates on a 0 to 100 scale and formations are expected shapes, not confirmed line-ups.
Prediction board
Full-time result, goals and handicap lines from our indicative model. Reference figures, not live prices.
MEX win
22%
Draw
26%
ESP win
52%
Model lean
Both teams to score
51%
A clean sheet is a real possibility.
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Combined expected goals: 2.6.
Asian handicap
Spain -0.75
Spain carry the handicap on an expected goal gap of 0.7.
First-goal window
13–42'
Busiest goal spell: 31–45'. Chance of 0-0: 7%.
At a glance
AI overview
Spain get the clear nod at 52%, with Mexico at 22% and the draw at 26%. It is a lean, not a lock.
Mexico face Spain in the Round of 32 of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles. It is listed for Sunday 28 June 2026, with kick-off at 15:00 ET, which is 12:30 am IST (29 Jun) in India. It is a neutral venue for both sides, so the model gives neither a home edge.
Spain are stronger in both attack (89/100) and defence (85/100), so the question is whether Mexico can disrupt their rhythm. Two names that could tilt it are Raúl Jiménez for Mexico and Lamine Yamal for Spain.
SoFi Stadium is a covered, open-sided bowl with a fast, true surface and mild evening temperatures. Our model projects 0-1 at full time on expected goals of 1.0 for Mexico and 1.6 for Spain, with the first goal typically arriving between minutes 13–42. Because this is a knockout tie, a level score goes to extra time and penalties, and the model gives Spain a 68% chance to progress.
Win probability
Mexico 22%, draw 26%, Spain 52% over 90 minutes. That is a clear gap rather than a lock.
Model lean
Spain
52% to win · 30-point gap
The split comes from attack, midfield and defence ratings for both teams, adjusted for SoFi Stadium. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.
Spain's strongest unit is territory and control of the midfield, and Mexico's weakest point is space behind the back line. That is the pairing to watch as the game settles.
Because it is a knockout tie, the model also gives Spain a 68% chance to progress once extra time and penalties are counted.
Impact names
Six names our model expects to shape Mexico vs Spain, with an impact score and a chance to score at any time.
Mexico
Winger
Hirving Lozano
Beats his man one-on-one
Anytime scorer18%
Mexico
Striker
Raúl Jiménez
Main goal threat in the box
Anytime scorer28%
Mexico
Right-back
Jorge Sánchez
Supplies width and crosses
Anytime scorer4%
Spain
Midfielder
Pedri
Controls territory
Anytime scorer12%
Spain
Striker
Álvaro Morata
Target for crosses and cut-backs
Anytime scorer43%
Spain
Winger
Lamine Yamal
Cuts inside to shoot
Anytime scorer28%
These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed line-up. Check the official team announcement about an hour before kick-off.
Scoreboard model
Projected score, half-time position and the goal markets for Mexico vs Spain, built from expected goals of 1.0 for Mexico and 1.6 for Spain.
Projected scoreboard
Full time
0-1
Half time
0-0
Likeliest scorelines
Half-time result: Mexico 19%, draw 43%, Spain 38%.
| Team stat | Mexico | Spain |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Possession | 40% | 60% |
| Shots | 7–9 | 12–14 |
| Shots on target | 3–4 | 4–5 |
| Clean sheet | 37% | 20% |
Half-time result first, full-time result second.
Total expected goals: 2.6.
Probabilities come from a Poisson goals model with a small adjustment for low scores. They are indicative reference figures, not live prices, and one red card or early goal can move every line.
What each market means, with the reference figure from our model. These are not live prices.
A straight pick on a home win, a draw or an away win after 90 minutes.
Model split: Mexico 22%, draw 26%, Spain 52%.
How this market worksYes if each side scores at least once, whatever the final result.
Model: Yes 51%, No 49%. Clean sheet: Mexico 37%, Spain 20%.
How this market worksA line on total goals. Over needs three or more, Under needs two or fewer.
Model: Over 2.5 48%, Under 2.5 52%. Over 1.5 74%, Over 3.5 26%.
How this market worksBacks the result at half time and at full time together, so there are nine outcomes.
Likeliest: ESP / ESP 31%, then Draw / Draw 17%.
How this market worksGives one side a head start or a deficit in goals, which removes the draw from many lines.
Model line: Spain -0.75.
How this market worksA player scores at any point in normal time. Own goals do not count in most books.
Álvaro Morata leads our list at 43%, then Raúl Jiménez (28%) and Lamine Yamal (28%).
How this market worksThe case for this match
Mexico keep it interesting
Spain are ahead at 52%, but Mexico have enough in their territory and control of the midfield to make the market move quickly.
Round of 32 in the FIFA World Cup 2026
A knockout tie carries extra time and penalties, so the qualify market and the 90-minute market can point in different directions.
First goal around minutes 13–42
The model expects the opener between minutes 13–42, and the busiest spell for goals is 31–45. Live markets often move fastest around those moments.
Depth of markets
A World Cup fixture like this normally carries 1X2, both teams to score, over/under, HT/FT, handicap and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.
For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.
Match ticket
About this fixture: Mexico vs Spain at SoFi Stadium.
SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles is a covered, open-sided bowl with a fast, true surface and mild evening temperatures.
Conditions look reasonable, so tactics and quality should matter more than the weather.
Neither side has home advantage, so squad depth and tactical flexibility carry more weight.
Knockout pairings depend on earlier results. Treat this fixture as a provisional listing and check FIFA's official schedule for the confirmed match-up.
Keep following
More football fixtures from the schedule, starting with games that involve these teams.
Mexico vs Brazil
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
View matchSpain vs Italy
BC Place, Vancouver
View matchEngland vs Spain
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
View matchBelgium vs Croatia
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
View matchRead before you follow
Events
There's no Dream11 football XI for a World Cup final on Gold365 — just real 1X2 and totals markets on whichever final fixture is actually scheduled.
Guide
Football on Gold365 is the same OTP ID with the football list open: 1X2, totals, live markets where marked — no second ID, no weekly salary.
Events
Knockout football on Gold365: 90 minutes versus extra time versus to-qualify markets. Watch the stream before going live — no fake bracket predictions.
Keep exploring
Answers
Our model leans Spain at 52% against Mexico at 22%, with the draw at 26%. It is a clear lean based on team ratings and conditions at SoFi Stadium, and it is not a guarantee.
The model projects 0-1 at full time and 0-0 at half time. The next likeliest scorelines are 0-1 (11%) and 0-2 (10%).
The likeliest half-time/full-time combination is ESP / ESP at 31%. Both teams to score is 51%, Over 2.5 goals is 48% and combined expected goals are 2.6.
Our watchlist has Hirving Lozano (Mexico, winger), Raúl Jiménez (Mexico, striker), Jorge Sánchez (Mexico, right-back), Pedri (Spain, midfielder), Álvaro Morata (Spain, striker), Lamine Yamal (Spain, winger). These are reference names, not confirmed line-ups. Starting XIs are announced about an hour before kick-off.
It is listed for Sunday 28 June 2026, with kick-off at 15:00 ET, which is 12:30 am IST (29 Jun) in India, at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles. Knockout pairings depend on earlier results. Treat this fixture as a provisional listing and check FIFA's official schedule for the confirmed match-up.
Mexico are modelled in a 4-3-3 and Spain in a 4-3-3. Formations are editorial estimates and can change with team news.
The model expects the first goal between minutes 13–42, with 31–45 the busiest 15-minute spell for goals. The chance of a 0-0 draw is 7%.
Yes. Neither Mexico nor Spain is at home, so the model does not apply a venue adjustment.
Extra time is played, and a penalty shootout follows if it is still level. Our model gives Spain a 68% chance to progress.
No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.
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Ask on WhatsAppPercentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.
