AI overview · What this page shows
Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.
USA
Projected
1:0
HT 0-0
Paraguay
USA vs Paraguay (Match 3, Group D) at SoFi Stadium on 12 Jun 2026: our model leans USA at 45% and projects 1-0 after 90 minutes.
Team details
USA are stronger in both attack (78/100) and defence (74/100), so the question is whether Paraguay can disrupt their rhythm.
Expected shape 4-3-3
USA are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 shape, with athletic runners, a pressing front line and full-backs who push high. Their best unit in this match is the attack.
Familiar surroundings help their planning. The key question is how they handle Paraguay's a compact, organised back line, while protecting against space behind the back line.
Expected shape 4-4-2
Paraguay are expected to line up in a 4-4-2 shape, with a resilient, hard-working block, a leader in central defence and a winger who carries the ball. Their best unit in this match is the defence.
The key question is how they handle USA's chance quality and finishing, while protecting against turning possession into clear chances.
Ratings are editorial estimates on a 0 to 100 scale and formations are expected shapes, not confirmed line-ups.
Prediction board
Full-time result, goals and handicap lines from our indicative model. Reference figures, not live prices.
USA win
45%
Model lean
Draw
28%
PAR win
27%
Both teams to score
52%
A clean sheet is a real possibility.
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Combined expected goals: 2.6.
Asian handicap
USA -0.5
USA carry the handicap on an expected goal gap of 0.4.
First-goal window
10–42'
Busiest goal spell: 31–45'. Chance of 0-0: 8%.
At a glance
AI overview
USA get the modest nod at 45%, with Paraguay at 27% and the draw at 28%. It is a lean, not a lock.
SoFi Stadium hosts USA against Paraguay in Match 3, Group D, number 3 of 36 in this part of the schedule. It is listed for Friday 12 June 2026, with kick-off at 18:00 ET, which is 3:30 am IST (13 Jun) in India. USA are playing in their own country, which our model counts as a small edge.
USA are stronger in both attack (78/100) and defence (74/100), so the question is whether Paraguay can disrupt their rhythm. Two names that could tilt it are Christian Pulisic for USA and Miguel Almirón for Paraguay.
SoFi Stadium is a covered, open-sided bowl with a fast, true surface and mild evening temperatures. Our model projects 1-0 at full time on expected goals of 1.5 for USA and 1.1 for Paraguay, with the first goal typically arriving between minutes 10–42.
Win probability
USA 45%, draw 28%, Paraguay 27% over 90 minutes. The modest gap leaves room for a surprise.
Model lean
USA
45% to win · 18-point gap
The split comes from attack, midfield and defence ratings for both teams, adjusted for SoFi Stadium and USA's home edge. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.
USA's strongest unit is chance quality and finishing, and Paraguay's weakest point is turning possession into clear chances. That is the pairing to watch as the game settles.
Confirmed line-ups are usually published about an hour before kick-off, so check the split again once the teams are named.
Impact names
Six names our model expects to shape USA vs Paraguay, with an impact score and a chance to score at any time.
USA
Winger
Christian Pulisic
Supplies the crosses
Anytime scorer26%
USA
Midfielder
Weston McKennie
Controls territory
Anytime scorer11%
USA
Centre-back
Tim Ream
Anchor of the back line
Anytime scorer7%
Paraguay
Winger
Miguel Almirón
Supplies the crosses
Anytime scorer20%
Paraguay
Striker
Antonio Sanabria
Target for crosses and cut-backs
Anytime scorer31%
Paraguay
Centre-back
Gustavo Gómez
Aerial threat at set pieces
Anytime scorer5%
These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed line-up. Check the official team announcement about an hour before kick-off.
Scoreboard model
Projected score, half-time position and the goal markets for USA vs Paraguay, built from expected goals of 1.5 for USA and 1.1 for Paraguay.
Projected scoreboard
Full time
1-0
Half time
0-0
Likeliest scorelines
Half-time result: USA 34%, draw 43%, Paraguay 23%.
| Team stat | USA | Paraguay |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Possession | 56% | 44% |
| Shots | 11–13 | 8–10 |
| Shots on target | 4–5 | 3–4 |
| Clean sheet | 23% | 33% |
Half-time result first, full-time result second.
Total expected goals: 2.6.
Probabilities come from a Poisson goals model with a small adjustment for low scores. They are indicative reference figures, not live prices, and one red card or early goal can move every line.
What each market means, with the reference figure from our model. These are not live prices.
A straight pick on a home win, a draw or an away win after 90 minutes.
Model split: USA 45%, draw 28%, Paraguay 27%.
How this market worksYes if each side scores at least once, whatever the final result.
Model: Yes 52%, No 48%. Clean sheet: USA 23%, Paraguay 33%.
How this market worksA line on total goals. Over needs three or more, Under needs two or fewer.
Model: Over 2.5 47%, Under 2.5 53%. Over 1.5 73%, Over 3.5 26%.
How this market worksBacks the result at half time and at full time together, so there are nine outcomes.
Likeliest: USA / USA 27%, then Draw / Draw 17%.
How this market worksGives one side a head start or a deficit in goals, which removes the draw from many lines.
Model line: USA -0.5.
How this market worksA player scores at any point in normal time. Own goals do not count in most books.
Antonio Sanabria leads our list at 31%, then Christian Pulisic (26%) and Miguel Almirón (20%).
How this market worksThe case for this match
Paraguay keep it interesting
USA are ahead at 45%, but Paraguay have enough in their a compact, organised back line to make the market move quickly.
Match 3 in the FIFA World Cup 2026
Group games shape the table, so points and goal difference matter as well as the result.
First goal around minutes 10–42
The model expects the opener between minutes 10–42, and the busiest spell for goals is 31–45. Live markets often move fastest around those moments.
Depth of markets
A World Cup fixture like this normally carries 1X2, both teams to score, over/under, HT/FT, handicap and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.
For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.
Match ticket
About this fixture: USA vs Paraguay at SoFi Stadium.
SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles is a covered, open-sided bowl with a fast, true surface and mild evening temperatures.
Conditions look reasonable, so tactics and quality should matter more than the weather.
USA know the setting best, which our model reflects with a small lift in their expected goals.
Keep following
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Guide
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Answers
Our model leans USA at 45% against Paraguay at 27%, with the draw at 28%. It is a modest lean based on team ratings and conditions at SoFi Stadium, and it is not a guarantee.
The model projects 1-0 at full time and 0-0 at half time. The next likeliest scorelines are 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9%).
The likeliest half-time/full-time combination is USA / USA at 27%. Both teams to score is 52%, Over 2.5 goals is 47% and combined expected goals are 2.6.
Our watchlist has Christian Pulisic (USA, winger), Weston McKennie (USA, midfielder), Tim Ream (USA, centre-back), Miguel Almirón (Paraguay, winger), Antonio Sanabria (Paraguay, striker), Gustavo Gómez (Paraguay, centre-back). These are reference names, not confirmed line-ups. Starting XIs are announced about an hour before kick-off.
It is listed for Friday 12 June 2026, with kick-off at 18:00 ET, which is 3:30 am IST (13 Jun) in India, at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles.
USA are modelled in a 4-3-3 and Paraguay in a 4-4-2. Formations are editorial estimates and can change with team news.
The model expects the first goal between minutes 10–42, with 31–45 the busiest 15-minute spell for goals. The chance of a 0-0 draw is 8%.
USA are playing in their own country, which our model counts as a small lift in expected goals.
The 2026 World Cup has 48 teams in 12 groups of four. The top two in each group and the eight best third-placed teams reach the round of 32.
No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.
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Ask on WhatsAppPercentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.
