AI overview · What this page shows
Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.
USA
Projected
1:0
HT 0-0
Australia
USA vs Australia (Match 28, Group D) at Lumen Field on 25 Jun 2026: our model leans USA at 46% and projects 1-0 after 90 minutes.
Team details
USA are stronger in both attack (78/100) and defence (74/100), so the question is whether Australia can disrupt their rhythm.
Expected shape 4-3-3
USA are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 shape, with athletic runners, a pressing front line and full-backs who push high. Their best unit in this match is the attack.
Familiar surroundings help their planning. The key question is how they handle Australia's a compact, organised back line, while protecting against space behind the back line.
Expected shape 4-4-2
Australia are expected to line up in a 4-4-2 shape, with a physical, well-organised group that defends in a low block and attacks set pieces. Their best unit in this match is the defence.
The key question is how they handle USA's chance quality and finishing, while protecting against turning possession into clear chances.
Ratings are editorial estimates on a 0 to 100 scale and formations are expected shapes, not confirmed line-ups.
Prediction board
Full-time result, goals and handicap lines from our indicative model. Reference figures, not live prices.
USA win
46%
Model lean
Draw
27%
AUS win
27%
Both teams to score
54%
A clean sheet is a real possibility.
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Combined expected goals: 2.7.
Asian handicap
USA -0.5
USA carry the handicap on an expected goal gap of 0.4.
First-goal window
10–43'
Busiest goal spell: 31–45'. Chance of 0-0: 7%.
At a glance
AI overview
USA get the modest nod at 46%, with Australia at 27% and the draw at 27%. It is a lean, not a lock.
Lumen Field hosts USA against Australia in Match 28, Group D, number 28 of 36 in this part of the schedule. It is listed for Thursday 25 June 2026, with kick-off at 18:00 ET, which is 3:30 am IST (26 Jun) in India. USA are playing in their own country, which our model counts as a small edge.
USA are stronger in both attack (78/100) and defence (74/100), so the question is whether Australia can disrupt their rhythm. Two names that could tilt it are Christian Pulisic for USA and Ajdin Hrustic for Australia.
Lumen Field is a loud, open-air ground with a cooler, damper climate and a crowd that funnels noise onto the pitch. Our model projects 1-0 at full time on expected goals of 1.5 for USA and 1.1 for Australia, with the first goal typically arriving between minutes 10–43.
Win probability
USA 46%, draw 27%, Australia 27% over 90 minutes. That is a modest gap rather than a lock.
Model lean
USA
46% to win · 19-point gap
The split comes from attack, midfield and defence ratings for both teams, adjusted for Lumen Field and USA's home edge. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.
USA's strongest unit is chance quality and finishing, and Australia's weakest point is turning possession into clear chances. That is the pairing to watch as the game settles.
Confirmed line-ups are usually published about an hour before kick-off, so check the split again once the teams are named.
Impact names
Six names our model expects to shape USA vs Australia, with an impact score and a chance to score at any time.
USA
Winger
Christian Pulisic
Cuts inside to shoot
Anytime scorer26%
USA
Midfielder
Weston McKennie
Sets the tempo
Anytime scorer12%
USA
Centre-back
Tim Ream
Aerial threat at set pieces
Anytime scorer7%
Australia
Attacking Midfielder
Ajdin Hrustic
Set-piece and final-pass threat
Anytime scorer18%
Australia
Striker
Jamie Maclaren
Target for crosses and cut-backs
Anytime scorer32%
Australia
Centre-back
Harry Souttar
Sweeps up behind the press
Anytime scorer5%
These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed line-up. Check the official team announcement about an hour before kick-off.
Scoreboard model
Projected score, half-time position and the goal markets for USA vs Australia, built from expected goals of 1.5 for USA and 1.1 for Australia.
Projected scoreboard
Full time
1-0
Half time
0-0
Likeliest scorelines
Half-time result: USA 34%, draw 43%, Australia 23%.
| Team stat | USA | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Possession | 56% | 44% |
| Shots | 10–12 | 7–9 |
| Shots on target | 4–5 | 3–4 |
| Clean sheet | 22% | 32% |
Half-time result first, full-time result second.
Total expected goals: 2.7.
Probabilities come from a Poisson goals model with a small adjustment for low scores. They are indicative reference figures, not live prices, and one red card or early goal can move every line.
What each market means, with the reference figure from our model. These are not live prices.
A straight pick on a home win, a draw or an away win after 90 minutes.
Model split: USA 46%, draw 27%, Australia 27%.
How this market worksYes if each side scores at least once, whatever the final result.
Model: Yes 54%, No 46%. Clean sheet: USA 22%, Australia 32%.
How this market worksA line on total goals. Over needs three or more, Under needs two or fewer.
Model: Over 2.5 49%, Under 2.5 51%. Over 1.5 75%, Over 3.5 27%.
How this market worksBacks the result at half time and at full time together, so there are nine outcomes.
Likeliest: USA / USA 27%, then Draw / Draw 17%.
How this market worksGives one side a head start or a deficit in goals, which removes the draw from many lines.
Model line: USA -0.5.
How this market worksA player scores at any point in normal time. Own goals do not count in most books.
Jamie Maclaren leads our list at 32%, then Christian Pulisic (26%) and Ajdin Hrustic (18%).
How this market worksThe case for this match
Australia keep it interesting
USA are ahead at 46%, but Australia have enough in their a compact, organised back line to make the market move quickly.
Match 28 in the FIFA World Cup 2026
Group games shape the table, so points and goal difference matter as well as the result.
First goal around minutes 10–43
The model expects the opener between minutes 10–43, and the busiest spell for goals is 31–45. Live markets often move fastest around those moments.
Depth of markets
A World Cup fixture like this normally carries 1X2, both teams to score, over/under, HT/FT, handicap and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.
For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.
Match ticket
About this fixture: USA vs Australia at Lumen Field.
Lumen Field in Seattle is a loud, open-air ground with a cooler, damper climate and a crowd that funnels noise onto the pitch.
Conditions are controlled or cool, so the pace of the game should hold up for the full 90 minutes.
USA know the setting best, which our model reflects with a small lift in their expected goals.
Keep following
More football fixtures from the schedule, starting with games that involve these teams.
Brazil vs USA
Gillette Stadium, Boston
View matchGermany vs Japan
Gillette Stadium, Boston
View matchFrance vs Ecuador
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
View matchArgentina vs Netherlands
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
View matchRead before you follow
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Answers
Our model leans USA at 46% against Australia at 27%, with the draw at 27%. It is a modest lean based on team ratings and conditions at Lumen Field, and it is not a guarantee.
The model projects 1-0 at full time and 0-0 at half time. The next likeliest scorelines are 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9%).
The likeliest half-time/full-time combination is USA / USA at 27%. Both teams to score is 54%, Over 2.5 goals is 49% and combined expected goals are 2.7.
Our watchlist has Christian Pulisic (USA, winger), Weston McKennie (USA, midfielder), Tim Ream (USA, centre-back), Ajdin Hrustic (Australia, attacking midfielder), Jamie Maclaren (Australia, striker), Harry Souttar (Australia, centre-back). These are reference names, not confirmed line-ups. Starting XIs are announced about an hour before kick-off.
It is listed for Thursday 25 June 2026, with kick-off at 18:00 ET, which is 3:30 am IST (26 Jun) in India, at Lumen Field, Seattle.
USA are modelled in a 4-3-3 and Australia in a 4-4-2. Formations are editorial estimates and can change with team news.
The model expects the first goal between minutes 10–43, with 31–45 the busiest 15-minute spell for goals. The chance of a 0-0 draw is 7%.
USA are playing in their own country, which our model counts as a small lift in expected goals.
The 2026 World Cup has 48 teams in 12 groups of four. The top two in each group and the eight best third-placed teams reach the round of 32.
No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.
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Ask on WhatsAppPercentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.
