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Football · Match 22 · Group J18:00 ET

Croatia vs Saudi ArabiaCRO vs KSA Match 22 prediction, projected score & key players

Croatia

Projected

1:0

HT 0-0

Saudi Arabia

CRO 55%Draw 26%19% KSA
Kick-off
18:00 ET
3:30 am IST (23 Jun)
Venue
BMO Field, Toronto
Model lean
Croatia · 55%
Jun 202622Mon

Croatia vs Saudi Arabia (Match 22, Group J) at BMO Field on 22 Jun 2026: our model leans Croatia at 55% and projects 1-0 after 90 minutes.

Team details

Team details for Croatia vs Saudi Arabia

Croatia are stronger in both attack (76/100) and defence (78/100), so the question is whether Saudi Arabia can disrupt their rhythm.

Croatia

Expected shape 4-3-3

Attack76
Midfield88
Defence78
Strength
Territory and control of the midfield
Vulnerability
Turning possession into clear chances

Croatia are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 shape, with a veteran midfield that dictates tempo, calm on the ball and comfortable in long games. Their best unit in this match is the midfield.

The key question is how they handle Saudi Arabia's territory and control of the midfield, while protecting against turning possession into clear chances.

Saudi Arabia

Expected shape 4-1-4-1

Attack62
Midfield64
Defence62
Strength
Territory and control of the midfield
Vulnerability
Space behind the back line

Saudi Arabia are expected to line up in a 4-1-4-1 shape, with a high-tempo, aggressive side with a winger who creates chances from nothing. Their best unit in this match is the midfield.

The key question is how they handle Croatia's territory and control of the midfield, while protecting against space behind the back line.

Ratings are editorial estimates on a 0 to 100 scale and formations are expected shapes, not confirmed line-ups.

Prediction board

Croatia vs Saudi Arabia prediction

Full-time result, goals and handicap lines from our indicative model. Reference figures, not live prices.

CRO win

55%

Model lean

Draw

26%

KSA win

19%

Both teams to score

48%

A clean sheet is a real possibility.

Over 2.5 goals

47%

Combined expected goals: 2.6.

Asian handicap

Croatia -0.75

Croatia carry the handicap on an expected goal gap of 0.8.

First-goal window

13–41'

Busiest goal spell: 31–45'. Chance of 0-0: 8%.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Croatia get the heavy nod at 55%, with Saudi Arabia at 19% and the draw at 26%. It is a lean, not a lock.

Lean: CroatiaProjected score: 1-0HT/FT: CRO / CRONeutral venue

Croatia face Saudi Arabia in Match 22, Group J of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at BMO Field, Toronto. It is listed for Monday 22 June 2026, with kick-off at 18:00 ET, which is 3:30 am IST (23 Jun) in India. It is a neutral venue for both sides, so the model gives neither a home edge.

Croatia are stronger in both attack (76/100) and defence (78/100), so the question is whether Saudi Arabia can disrupt their rhythm. Two names that could tilt it are Andrej Kramarić for Croatia and Saleh Al-Shehri for Saudi Arabia.

BMO Field is a compact open-air ground where the crowd sits close to the pitch and the evening air is mild. Our model projects 1-0 at full time on expected goals of 1.7 for Croatia and 0.9 for Saudi Arabia, with the first goal typically arriving between minutes 13–41.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

Croatia 55%, draw 26%, Saudi Arabia 19% over 90 minutes. That is a heavy gap rather than a lock.

Model lean

Croatia

55% to win · 36-point gap

CRO 55%Draw 26%19% KSA

The split comes from attack, midfield and defence ratings for both teams, adjusted for BMO Field. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.

Croatia's strongest unit is territory and control of the midfield, and Saudi Arabia's weakest point is space behind the back line. That is the pairing to watch as the game settles.

Confirmed line-ups are usually published about an hour before kick-off, so check the split again once the teams are named.

CroatiaSaudi Arabia
  • 55AttackChance creation and finishing45
  • 58Midfield controlTerritory, tempo and duels42
  • 56DefenceShape, aerial strength and keeping shots out44
  • 57Form & momentumOverall rating with a match-day adjustment43

Impact names

Key players to watch

Six names our model expects to shape Croatia vs Saudi Arabia, with an impact score and a chance to score at any time.

Croatia

  • Croatia

    Midfielder

    Luka Modrić

    Sets the tempo

    Impact84%

    Anytime scorer13%

  • Croatia

    Forward

    Andrej Kramarić

    Runs in behind the back line

    Impact86%

    Anytime scorer39%

  • Croatia

    Centre-back

    Josko Gvardiol

    Sweeps up behind the press

    Impact84%

    Anytime scorer8%

Saudi Arabia

  • Saudi Arabia

    Winger

    Salem Al-Dawsari

    Supplies the crosses

    Impact77%

    Anytime scorer16%

  • Saudi Arabia

    Striker

    Saleh Al-Shehri

    Main goal threat in the box

    Impact81%

    Anytime scorer26%

  • Saudi Arabia

    Centre-back

    Ali Al-Bulaihi

    Aerial threat at set pieces

    Impact77%

    Anytime scorer4%

These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed line-up. Check the official team announcement about an hour before kick-off.

Scoreboard model

Projected score, HT/FT & goal markets

Projected score, half-time position and the goal markets for Croatia vs Saudi Arabia, built from expected goals of 1.7 for Croatia and 0.9 for Saudi Arabia.

Projected scoreboard

Full time

1-0

Half time

0-0

Likeliest scorelines

  • 1-113%
  • 1-012%
  • 2-011%

Half-time result: Croatia 40%, draw 43%, Saudi Arabia 17%.

Projected match stats for Croatia and Saudi Arabia
Team statCroatiaSaudi Arabia
Expected goals1.70.9
Possession65%35%
Shots12–146–8
Shots on target4–52–3
Clean sheet19%41%

HT/FT market

Half-time result first, full-time result second.

  • CRO / CRO34%
  • Draw / CRO18%
  • Draw / Draw17%
  • KSA / KSA10%
  • Draw / KSA8%
  • CRO / Draw5%
  • KSA / Draw5%
  • KSA / CRO2%
  • CRO / KSA1%

Goal markets

Total expected goals: 2.6.

  • Both teams to score48%
  • Over 1.5 goals73%
  • Over 2.5 goals47%
  • Over 3.5 goals25%
  • CRO clean sheet19%
  • KSA clean sheet41%
Goal timingChance of at least one goal in each 15-minute window. The opener typically lands between minutes 13–41, and the chance of no goal at all is 8%.
  • 27%
  • 37%
  • 42%
  • 34%
  • 32%
  • 35%
  • 1–15'
  • 16–30'
  • 31–45'
  • 46–60'
  • 61–75'
  • 76–90'

Probabilities come from a Poisson goals model with a small adjustment for low scores. They are indicative reference figures, not live prices, and one red card or early goal can move every line.

Popular football markets for this match

What each market means, with the reference figure from our model. These are not live prices.

  • Match result (1X2)

    A straight pick on a home win, a draw or an away win after 90 minutes.

    Model split: Croatia 55%, draw 26%, Saudi Arabia 19%.

    How this market works

  • Both teams to score

    Yes if each side scores at least once, whatever the final result.

    Model: Yes 48%, No 52%. Clean sheet: Croatia 19%, Saudi Arabia 41%.

    How this market works

  • Over / Under 2.5 goals

    A line on total goals. Over needs three or more, Under needs two or fewer.

    Model: Over 2.5 47%, Under 2.5 53%. Over 1.5 73%, Over 3.5 25%.

    How this market works

  • Half-time / full-time

    Backs the result at half time and at full time together, so there are nine outcomes.

    Likeliest: CRO / CRO 34%, then Draw / CRO 18%.

    How this market works

  • Asian handicap

    Gives one side a head start or a deficit in goals, which removes the draw from many lines.

    Model line: Croatia -0.75.

    How this market works

  • Anytime goalscorer

    A player scores at any point in normal time. Own goals do not count in most books.

    Andrej Kramarić leads our list at 39%, then Saleh Al-Shehri (26%) and Salem Al-Dawsari (16%).

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet Croatia vs Saudi Arabia?

  • Saudi Arabia keep it interesting

    Croatia are ahead at 55%, but Saudi Arabia have enough in their territory and control of the midfield to make the market move quickly.

  • Match 22 in the FIFA World Cup 2026

    Group games shape the table, so points and goal difference matter as well as the result.

  • First goal around minutes 13–41

    The model expects the opener between minutes 13–41, and the busiest spell for goals is 31–45. Live markets often move fastest around those moments.

  • Depth of markets

    A World Cup fixture like this normally carries 1X2, both teams to score, over/under, HT/FT, handicap and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Match ticket

Match details

About this fixture: Croatia vs Saudi Arabia at BMO Field.

Tournament
FIFA World Cup 2026
Stage
Match 22, Group J
Fixture
Croatia vs Saudi Arabia
Date
Monday 22 June 2026
Kick-off
18:00 ET
In India
3:30 am IST (23 Jun)
Venue
BMO Field, Toronto
Format
90 minutes
Projected score
1-0 (half-time 0-0)
Referee
To be announced

Venue & conditions

Toronto

BMO Field in Toronto is a compact open-air ground where the crowd sits close to the pitch and the evening air is mild.

Conditions look reasonable, so tactics and quality should matter more than the weather.

Neither side has home advantage, so squad depth and tactical flexibility carry more weight.

Keep following

Other upcoming football matches

More football fixtures from the schedule, starting with games that involve these teams.

All football fixtures in the scheduleSee the full FIFA World Cup 2026 - Group Stage table

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Answers

Questions about Croatia vs Saudi Arabia

  1. Our model leans Croatia at 55% against Saudi Arabia at 19%, with the draw at 26%. It is a heavy lean based on team ratings and conditions at BMO Field, and it is not a guarantee.

  2. The model projects 1-0 at full time and 0-0 at half time. The next likeliest scorelines are 1-0 (12%) and 2-0 (11%).

  3. The likeliest half-time/full-time combination is CRO / CRO at 34%. Both teams to score is 48%, Over 2.5 goals is 47% and combined expected goals are 2.6.

  4. Our watchlist has Luka Modrić (Croatia, midfielder), Andrej Kramarić (Croatia, forward), Josko Gvardiol (Croatia, centre-back), Salem Al-Dawsari (Saudi Arabia, winger), Saleh Al-Shehri (Saudi Arabia, striker), Ali Al-Bulaihi (Saudi Arabia, centre-back). These are reference names, not confirmed line-ups. Starting XIs are announced about an hour before kick-off.

  5. It is listed for Monday 22 June 2026, with kick-off at 18:00 ET, which is 3:30 am IST (23 Jun) in India, at BMO Field, Toronto.

  6. Croatia are modelled in a 4-3-3 and Saudi Arabia in a 4-1-4-1. Formations are editorial estimates and can change with team news.

  7. The model expects the first goal between minutes 13–41, with 31–45 the busiest 15-minute spell for goals. The chance of a 0-0 draw is 8%.

  8. Yes. Neither Croatia nor Saudi Arabia is at home, so the model does not apply a venue adjustment.

  9. The 2026 World Cup has 48 teams in 12 groups of four. The top two in each group and the eight best third-placed teams reach the round of 32.

  10. No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.

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Percentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

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