AI overview · What this page shows
Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.
Uruguay
Projected
1:0
HT 0-0
Iran
Uruguay vs Iran (Match 21, Group I) at AT&T Stadium on 21 Jun 2026: our model leans Uruguay at 52% and projects 1-0 after 90 minutes.
Team details
Uruguay are stronger in both attack (80/100) and defence (82/100), so the question is whether Iran can disrupt their rhythm.
Expected shape 4-3-3
Uruguay are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 shape, with a high-energy press, physical duels and quick transitions through the middle. Their best unit in this match is the midfield.
The key question is how they handle Iran's a compact, organised back line, while protecting against turning possession into clear chances.
Expected shape 4-1-4-1
Iran are expected to line up in a 4-1-4-1 shape, with a compact, defensive shape with two strikers who thrive on a half-chance. Their best unit in this match is the defence.
The key question is how they handle Uruguay's territory and control of the midfield, while protecting against holding the midfield against a press.
Ratings are editorial estimates on a 0 to 100 scale and formations are expected shapes, not confirmed line-ups.
Prediction board
Full-time result, goals and handicap lines from our indicative model. Reference figures, not live prices.
URU win
52%
Model lean
Draw
27%
IRN win
21%
Both teams to score
48%
A clean sheet is a real possibility.
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Combined expected goals: 2.5.
Asian handicap
Uruguay -0.75
Uruguay carry the handicap on an expected goal gap of 0.7.
First-goal window
14–44'
Busiest goal spell: 76–90'. Chance of 0-0: 8%.
At a glance
AI overview
Uruguay get the clear nod at 52%, with Iran at 21% and the draw at 27%. It is a lean, not a lock.
Uruguay face Iran in Match 21, Group I of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at AT&T Stadium, Dallas. It is listed for Sunday 21 June 2026, with kick-off at 12:00 ET, which is 9:30 pm IST in India. It is a neutral venue for both sides, so the model gives neither a home edge.
Uruguay are stronger in both attack (80/100) and defence (82/100), so the question is whether Iran can disrupt their rhythm. Two names that could tilt it are Darwin Núñez for Uruguay and Mehdi Taremi for Iran.
AT&T Stadium is an air-conditioned, roofed stadium with a huge pitch and a fast surface. Our model projects 1-0 at full time on expected goals of 1.6 for Uruguay and 0.9 for Iran, with the first goal typically arriving between minutes 14–44.
Win probability
Uruguay 52%, draw 27%, Iran 21% over 90 minutes. That is a clear gap rather than a lock.
Model lean
Uruguay
52% to win · 31-point gap
The split comes from attack, midfield and defence ratings for both teams, adjusted for AT&T Stadium. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.
Uruguay's strongest unit is territory and control of the midfield, and Iran's weakest point is holding the midfield against a press. That is the pairing to watch as the game settles.
Confirmed line-ups are usually published about an hour before kick-off, so check the split again once the teams are named.
Impact names
Six names our model expects to shape Uruguay vs Iran, with an impact score and a chance to score at any time.
Uruguay
Striker
Darwin Núñez
Target for crosses and cut-backs
Anytime scorer42%
Uruguay
Midfielder
Federico Valverde
Wins the second ball
Anytime scorer12%
Uruguay
Centre-back
José María Giménez
Aerial threat at set pieces
Anytime scorer8%
Iran
Striker
Mehdi Taremi
Runs the channels and finishes
Anytime scorer26%
Iran
Forward
Sardar Azmoun
Threat on the counter
Anytime scorer24%
Iran
Winger
Alireza Jahanbakhsh
Beats his man one-on-one
Anytime scorer16%
These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed line-up. Check the official team announcement about an hour before kick-off.
Scoreboard model
Projected score, half-time position and the goal markets for Uruguay vs Iran, built from expected goals of 1.6 for Uruguay and 0.9 for Iran.
Projected scoreboard
Full time
1-0
Half time
0-0
Likeliest scorelines
Half-time result: Uruguay 38%, draw 44%, Iran 18%.
| Team stat | Uruguay | Iran |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Possession | 60% | 40% |
| Shots | 11–13 | 6–8 |
| Shots on target | 4–5 | 2–3 |
| Clean sheet | 21% | 40% |
Half-time result first, full-time result second.
Total expected goals: 2.5.
Probabilities come from a Poisson goals model with a small adjustment for low scores. They are indicative reference figures, not live prices, and one red card or early goal can move every line.
What each market means, with the reference figure from our model. These are not live prices.
A straight pick on a home win, a draw or an away win after 90 minutes.
Model split: Uruguay 52%, draw 27%, Iran 21%.
How this market worksYes if each side scores at least once, whatever the final result.
Model: Yes 48%, No 52%. Clean sheet: Uruguay 21%, Iran 40%.
How this market worksA line on total goals. Over needs three or more, Under needs two or fewer.
Model: Over 2.5 45%, Under 2.5 55%. Over 1.5 72%, Over 3.5 24%.
How this market worksBacks the result at half time and at full time together, so there are nine outcomes.
Likeliest: URU / URU 32%, then Draw / URU 18%.
How this market worksGives one side a head start or a deficit in goals, which removes the draw from many lines.
Model line: Uruguay -0.75.
How this market worksA player scores at any point in normal time. Own goals do not count in most books.
Darwin Núñez leads our list at 42%, then Mehdi Taremi (26%) and Sardar Azmoun (24%).
How this market worksThe case for this match
Iran keep it interesting
Uruguay are ahead at 52%, but Iran have enough in their a compact, organised back line to make the market move quickly.
Match 21 in the FIFA World Cup 2026
Group games shape the table, so points and goal difference matter as well as the result.
First goal around minutes 14–44
The model expects the opener between minutes 14–44, and the busiest spell for goals is 76–90. Live markets often move fastest around those moments.
Depth of markets
A World Cup fixture like this normally carries 1X2, both teams to score, over/under, HT/FT, handicap and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.
For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.
Match ticket
About this fixture: Uruguay vs Iran at AT&T Stadium.
AT&T Stadium in Dallas is an air-conditioned, roofed stadium with a huge pitch and a fast surface.
Conditions are controlled or cool, so the pace of the game should hold up for the full 90 minutes.
Neither side has home advantage, so squad depth and tactical flexibility carry more weight.
Keep following
More football fixtures from the schedule, starting with games that involve these teams.
Portugal vs Uruguay
AT&T Stadium, Dallas
View matchNetherlands vs Uruguay
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
View matchColombia vs New Zealand
NRG Stadium, Houston
View matchCroatia vs Saudi Arabia
BMO Field, Toronto
View matchRead before you follow
Events
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Guide
Football on Gold365 is the same OTP ID with the football list open: 1X2, totals, live markets where marked — no second ID, no weekly salary.
Events
Knockout football on Gold365: 90 minutes versus extra time versus to-qualify markets. Watch the stream before going live — no fake bracket predictions.
Keep exploring
Answers
Our model leans Uruguay at 52% against Iran at 21%, with the draw at 27%. It is a clear lean based on team ratings and conditions at AT&T Stadium, and it is not a guarantee.
The model projects 1-0 at full time and 0-0 at half time. The next likeliest scorelines are 1-0 (12%) and 2-0 (10%).
The likeliest half-time/full-time combination is URU / URU at 32%. Both teams to score is 48%, Over 2.5 goals is 45% and combined expected goals are 2.5.
Our watchlist has Darwin Núñez (Uruguay, striker), Federico Valverde (Uruguay, midfielder), José María Giménez (Uruguay, centre-back), Mehdi Taremi (Iran, striker), Sardar Azmoun (Iran, forward), Alireza Jahanbakhsh (Iran, winger). These are reference names, not confirmed line-ups. Starting XIs are announced about an hour before kick-off.
It is listed for Sunday 21 June 2026, with kick-off at 12:00 ET, which is 9:30 pm IST in India, at AT&T Stadium, Dallas.
Uruguay are modelled in a 4-3-3 and Iran in a 4-1-4-1. Formations are editorial estimates and can change with team news.
The model expects the first goal between minutes 14–44, with 76–90 the busiest 15-minute spell for goals. The chance of a 0-0 draw is 8%.
Yes. Neither Uruguay nor Iran is at home, so the model does not apply a venue adjustment.
The 2026 World Cup has 48 teams in 12 groups of four. The top two in each group and the eight best third-placed teams reach the round of 32.
No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.
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Ask on WhatsAppPercentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.
