Adults only · Information, not wagering · Set limits and play responsibly
Gold365

AI overview · What this page shows

Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.

Tennis · WTA · Semi-finalsWTA 500hard courtProjected pairing

Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda AnisimovaMérida Open WTA Semi-finals: prediction, predicted score & key players

Aryna Sabalenka

Win probability

71%

vs

Amanda Anisimova

Win probability

29%

Sabalenka 71%29% Anisimova
Predicted score
6–3, 6–4

2–0

Start
Order of play TBC
Venue
Mérida
Format
Best of 3

hard court

Feb 202627FriSemi-finals

Mérida Open WTA Semi-finals on 27 Feb 2026: our projection has Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova, with Aryna Sabalenka the 71% favourite and a predicted score of 6–3, 6–4.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Aryna Sabalenka is the projected favourite at 71% over Amanda Anisimova (29%) in the Mérida Open WTA Semi-finals. It is a strong lean, not a lock.

Lean: Aryna SabalenkaCourt: hard courtFormat: best of 3Tie-break: 35%

Mérida Open WTA moves into the Semi-finals on Friday 27 February 2026, with play at Mérida. A WTA 500 in Mexico played in warm, humid conditions on outdoor hard courts.

Our projection has Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova as the headline match of the Semi-finals. It comes from a projected bracket built on our reference player pool, not from the official draw, so the confirmed pairing can differ. Four are left, and the two winners meet in the final.

Aryna Sabalenka is an ultra-aggressive power baseliner with a huge serve and forehand. Amanda Anisimova is a flat, first-strike ball-striker who takes time away from opponents. On medium-pace hard court, our model leans Aryna Sabalenka, mainly through surface fit.

Match ticket

Match details

Date
Friday 27 February 2026
Tournament
Mérida Open WTA
Round
Semi-finals
Category
WTA 500
Venue
Mérida, Mexico
Main court
Yucatán Country Club, Mérida
Surface
hard court (medium pace)
Format
Singles, best of three sets
Ranking points
500 ranking points
Tour
WTA tour
Projected pairing
Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova (projection, not the official draw)

Pairings are projected. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Projected line-up

Mérida Open WTA Semi-finals predictions

Projected semi-finals pairings from our bracket model, with the headline match first. Percentages are for the first-named player.

  1. Aryna SabalenkaBLRUSAAmanda Anisimova
    71%29%
  2. Iga SwiatekPOLUSAMadison Keys
    60%40%

Projected title favourite for this event: Aryna Sabalenka.

These pairings are projections from our reference player pool, not the official draw.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

We compare Aryna Sabalenka and Amanda Anisimova on four factors: fit for hard court, serve, return and recent form. The combined lean is Aryna Sabalenka at 71%.

Model lean

Aryna Sabalenka

71% to win · 42-point gap

Sabalenka 71%29% Anisimova

Aryna Sabalenka is the strong pick because of a clear edge in surface fit. Amanda Anisimova keeps a 29% chance, mostly through match-day variance.

Projected pairing: this comes from our reference player pool, so treat it as the shape of the round, not a confirmed order of play. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Medium-pace hard court conditions sit between serve-led and baseline styles, which widens the gap between the two players' styles.

Aryna SabalenkaAmanda Anisimova
  • 61Surface fitRated on hard court39
  • 61ServeFirst-serve weapon and hold games39
  • 50ReturnBreak-point pressure50
  • 61Recent formLevel over recent events39

Impact names

Key players to watch

Four names our model expects to matter in this round on hard court: the two headline players and the next-best names from the projected bracket.

  • Belarus

    WTA

    Aryna Sabalenka

    Power · Big serve

    Impact82%

  • United States

    WTA

    Amanda Anisimova

    Ball-striker · Return

    Impact77%

  • Poland

    WTA

    Iga Swiatek

    Clay · Topspin

    Impact76%

  • Kazakhstan

    WTA

    Elena Rybakina

    Big serve · Grass

    Impact75%

Names, countries and playing styles are real. Impact scores are a model reference. They are not a confirmed draw or line-up, so check the official order of play close to the match.

Scoreboard model

Predicted score & set markets

Aryna Sabalenka is projected to beat Amanda Anisimova 2–0, 6–3, 6–4. The next table shows how the set and games markets line up around that call.

Predicted score

6–3, 6–4

Aryna Sabalenka to beat Amanda Anisimova in 2–0

Every figure is an indicative model, not a live price. Sets and games are derived from a best of three sets format on hard court.

Set score probability

  • Sabalenka 2–041.5%
  • Sabalenka 2–129.5%
  • Anisimova 2–116.3%
  • Anisimova 2–012.7%

  • Total games

    20–26

    Line 23.5. Average 23.3 games.

  • Tie-break

    35%

    About 16% per set.

  • Total aces

    13–19

    Sabalenka ~9, Anisimova ~7.

  • Match length

    1h 39m–2h 06m

    About 2.5 sets expected.

Model lean for each tennis market
MarketModel leanWhy
Match winnerAryna Sabalenka 71%strong lean over Amanda Anisimova (29%).
Set bettingAryna Sabalenka 2–02–0 for Sabalenka carries 42%. A deciding set is 46%.
Total gamesUnder 23.5Model average is 23.3 games, in a range of 20–26.
Games handicapSabalenka −3.5Sabalenka is projected to win by about 4 more games than Anisimova.
Tie-break in matchNo 65%About 16% per set on hard court.
First set winnerSabalenka 63%Anisimova takes at least one set 58% of the time.
Total aces13–19Sabalenka about 9, Anisimova about 7.
Match length1h 39m–2h 06mBased on 2.5 sets at hard court pace.

Popular tennis betting markets

The markets followers look at most for this match, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.

  • Match winner

    Back the player or nation you expect to win the match, whatever the score.

    Model lean: Aryna Sabalenka at 71%.

    How this market works

  • Set betting

    Pick the exact set score of a best of three sets match, such as 2–0.

    Most likely: Sabalenka 2–0, then a deciding set at 46%.

    How this market works

  • Total games

    Bet over or under a games line. Close, serve-led matches push the total up.

    Under 23.5 at a 23.3-game average.

    How this market works

  • Games handicap

    Give or take games to level up a mismatch, so the favourite has to win by a margin.

    Sabalenka −3.5 sits near the model's margin.

    How this market works

  • Tie-break market

    Predict whether any set reaches 6–6 and needs a tie-break.

    35% for at least one tie-break in the match.

    How this market works

  • Live tennis markets

    Prices move point by point, so first-set and break-of-serve lines can swing quickly.

    Anisimova steals a set 58% of the time, which is why live lines matter.

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet this match?

  • A clear storyline

    Aryna Sabalenka carry a strong lean, so the interest is in the score and games markets, where the favourite still has to convert.

  • The court shapes the markets

    Medium-pace hard court. It moves the total games line and the tie-break chance (35%), so surface reading is part of the edge.

  • Depth of markets

    Winner, set score, total games, handicap, tie-break, aces and first-set lines all exist for a WTA 500 semi-finals, so you can pick the one that matches what you actually think.

  • Live pricing

    A best of three sets match has many turning points. Break points and set momentum move live prices, and our model shows a 58% chance the underdog takes a set.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Fixture guide

About Mérida Open WTA Semi-finals

The Mérida Open WTA is a WTA 500 event, worth 500 ranking points to the champion. A WTA 500 in Mexico played in warm, humid conditions on outdoor hard courts.

The Semi-finals is played on hard court at Yucatán Country Club, Mérida. Players arrive after the Quarter-finals on 25 Feb 2026, and the Final follows on 1 Mar 2026.

Our schedule lists 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 25 Feb 2026, Semi-finals on 27 Feb 2026, Final on 1 Mar 2026. Order of play is published by the tournament the day before and can change with weather.

Keep following

Other upcoming tennis matches

All tennis fixturesSee the full Mérida Open (WTA) table

Read before you follow

Related guides & blogs

Keep exploring

More from Gold365

Answers

Questions about Sabalenka vs Anisimova

  1. The Semi-finals is listed for Friday 27 February 2026. Our schedule shows 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 25 Feb 2026, Semi-finals on 27 Feb 2026, Final on 1 Mar 2026.

  2. Our model leans Aryna Sabalenka at 71%, with Amanda Anisimova at 29%. This is a projection built on a reference player pool, not the official draw, and it is not a guarantee of the result.

  3. Aryna Sabalenka is projected to win 2–0, 6–3, 6–4. Straight sets carry 54% and a deciding set 46%.

  4. The Semi-finals is held in Mérida, Mexico, with the main court at Yucatán Country Club, Mérida. The surface is hard court, which plays at a medium pace.

  5. Singles matches are best of three sets. Four are left, and the two winners meet in the final.

  6. No. Pairings are set by the official draw, which is not part of our schedule data. We show a projected pairing from our reference player pool so you can see the shape of the round. Check the tournament's order of play for the confirmed match.

  7. Aryna Sabalenka (BLR), Amanda Anisimova (USA), Iga Swiatek (POL), Elena Rybakina (KAZ). These are reference names from our model and not confirmed line-ups.

  8. Common markets are match winner, set betting, total games, games handicap, tie-break, first-set winner and total aces. Prices move live, and our figures here are model references only.

  9. The champion earns 500 ranking points. The Semi-finals winner moves a step closer to that total.

Cannot find what you need? Our official WhatsApp desk replies with your ID and a screenshot.

Ask on WhatsApp

Pairings are a projection from our reference player pool and are not the official draw. Percentages, projected scores and impact figures are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the tournament. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

Tennis scheduleResponsible gaming