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Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.

Tennis · WTA · Round of 16Grand Slamhard courtProjected pairing

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica PegulaAustralian Open (Women's Singles) Round of 16: prediction, predicted score & key players

Aryna Sabalenka

Win probability

79%

vs

Jessica Pegula

Win probability

21%

Sabalenka 79%21% Pegula
Predicted score
6–3, 6–4

2–0

Start
Order of play TBC
Venue
Melbourne
Format
Best of 3

hard court

Jan 202622ThuRound of 16

Australian Open (Women's Singles) Round of 16 on 22 Jan 2026: our projection has Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula, with Aryna Sabalenka the 79% favourite and a predicted score of 6–3, 6–4.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Aryna Sabalenka is the projected favourite at 79% over Jessica Pegula (21%) in the Australian Open (Women's Singles) Round of 16. It is a strong lean, not a lock.

Lean: Aryna SabalenkaCourt: hard courtFormat: best of 3Tie-break: 29%

Australian Open (Women's Singles) moves into the Round of 16 on Thursday 22 January 2026, with play at Melbourne. The first Grand Slam of the year, played on hard courts in Melbourne with the roof over Rod Laver Arena for extreme heat or rain.

Our projection has Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula as the headline match of the Round of 16. It comes from a projected bracket built on our reference player pool, not from the official draw, so the confirmed pairing can differ. Sixteen players are left at this point, and the eight winners move into the quarter-finals.

Aryna Sabalenka is an ultra-aggressive power baseliner with a huge serve and forehand. Jessica Pegula is a compact baseliner who redirects pace and returns well. On medium-pace hard court, our model leans Aryna Sabalenka, mainly through serve.

Match ticket

Match details

Date
Thursday 22 January 2026
Tournament
Australian Open (Women's Singles)
Round
Round of 16
Category
Grand Slam
Venue
Melbourne, Australia
Main court
Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park
Surface
hard court (medium pace)
Format
Singles, best of three sets
Ranking points
2,000 ranking points
Tour
WTA tour
Projected pairing
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula (projection, not the official draw)

Pairings are projected. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Projected line-up

Australian Open (Women's Singles) Round of 16 predictions

Projected round of 16 pairings from our bracket model, with the headline match first. Percentages are for the first-named player.

  1. Aryna SabalenkaBLRUSAJessica Pegula
    79%21%
  2. Iga SwiatekPOLSUIBelinda Bencic
    73%27%
  3. Elena RybakinaKAZCANVictoria Mboko
    78%22%
  4. Coco GauffUSARUSDiana Shnaider
    81%19%
  5. Mirra AndreevaRUSRUSEkaterina Alexandrova
    60%40%
  6. Madison KeysUSACZEKarolina Muchova
    72%28%
  7. Amanda AnisimovaUSAESPPaula Badosa
    85%15%
  8. Qinwen ZhengCHNITAJasmine Paolini
    56%44%

Projected title favourite for this event: Aryna Sabalenka.

These pairings are projections from our reference player pool, not the official draw.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

We compare Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula on four factors: fit for hard court, serve, return and recent form. The combined lean is Aryna Sabalenka at 79%.

Model lean

Aryna Sabalenka

79% to win · 58-point gap

Sabalenka 79%21% Pegula

Aryna Sabalenka is the strong pick because of a clear edge in serve. Jessica Pegula keeps a 21% chance, mostly through match-day variance.

Projected pairing: this comes from our reference player pool, so treat it as the shape of the round, not a confirmed order of play. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Medium-pace hard court conditions sit between serve-led and baseline styles, which widens the gap between the two players' styles.

Aryna SabalenkaJessica Pegula
  • 64Surface fitRated on hard court36
  • 75ServeFirst-serve weapon and hold games25
  • 54ReturnBreak-point pressure46
  • 72Recent formLevel over recent events28

Impact names

Key players to watch

Four names our model expects to matter in this round on hard court: the two headline players and the next-best names from the projected bracket.

  • Belarus

    WTA

    Aryna Sabalenka

    Power · Big serve

    Impact82%

  • United States

    WTA

    Jessica Pegula

    Consistency · Return

    Impact73%

  • United States

    WTA

    Coco Gauff

    Defence · Athletic

    Impact77%

  • United States

    WTA

    Amanda Anisimova

    Ball-striker · Return

    Impact77%

Names, countries and playing styles are real. Impact scores are a model reference. They are not a confirmed draw or line-up, so check the official order of play close to the match.

Scoreboard model

Predicted score & set markets

Aryna Sabalenka is projected to beat Jessica Pegula 2–0, 6–3, 6–4. The next table shows how the set and games markets line up around that call.

Predicted score

6–3, 6–4

Aryna Sabalenka to beat Jessica Pegula in 2–0

Every figure is an indicative model, not a live price. Sets and games are derived from a best of three sets format on hard court.

Set score probability

  • Sabalenka 2–049.7%
  • Sabalenka 2–129.3%
  • Pegula 2–112.3%
  • Pegula 2–08.7%

  • Total games

    19–25

    Line 22.5. Average 22.4 games.

  • Tie-break

    29%

    About 13% per set.

  • Total aces

    11–16

    Sabalenka ~9, Pegula ~5.

  • Match length

    1h 37m–2h 03m

    About 2.4 sets expected.

Model lean for each tennis market
MarketModel leanWhy
Match winnerAryna Sabalenka 79%strong lean over Jessica Pegula (21%).
Set bettingAryna Sabalenka 2–02–0 for Sabalenka carries 50%. A deciding set is 42%.
Total gamesUnder 22.5Model average is 22.4 games, in a range of 19–25.
Games handicapSabalenka −5.5Sabalenka is projected to win by about 6 more games than Pegula.
Tie-break in matchNo 71%About 13% per set on hard court.
First set winnerSabalenka 68%Pegula takes at least one set 50% of the time.
Total aces11–16Sabalenka about 9, Pegula about 5.
Match length1h 37m–2h 03mBased on 2.4 sets at hard court pace.

Popular tennis betting markets

The markets followers look at most for this match, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.

  • Match winner

    Back the player or nation you expect to win the match, whatever the score.

    Model lean: Aryna Sabalenka at 79%.

    How this market works

  • Set betting

    Pick the exact set score of a best of three sets match, such as 2–0.

    Most likely: Sabalenka 2–0, then a deciding set at 42%.

    How this market works

  • Total games

    Bet over or under a games line. Close, serve-led matches push the total up.

    Under 22.5 at a 22.4-game average.

    How this market works

  • Games handicap

    Give or take games to level up a mismatch, so the favourite has to win by a margin.

    Sabalenka −5.5 sits near the model's margin.

    How this market works

  • Tie-break market

    Predict whether any set reaches 6–6 and needs a tie-break.

    29% for at least one tie-break in the match.

    How this market works

  • Live tennis markets

    Prices move point by point, so first-set and break-of-serve lines can swing quickly.

    Pegula steals a set 50% of the time, which is why live lines matter.

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet this match?

  • A clear storyline

    Aryna Sabalenka carry a strong lean, so the interest is in the score and games markets, where the favourite still has to convert.

  • The court shapes the markets

    Medium-pace hard court. It moves the total games line and the tie-break chance (29%), so surface reading is part of the edge.

  • Depth of markets

    Winner, set score, total games, handicap, tie-break, aces and first-set lines all exist for a Grand Slam round of 16, so you can pick the one that matches what you actually think.

  • Live pricing

    A best of three sets match has many turning points. Break points and set momentum move live prices, and our model shows a 50% chance the underdog takes a set.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Fixture guide

About Australian Open (Women's Singles) Round of 16

The Australian Open (Women's Singles) is a Grand Slam event, worth 2,000 ranking points to the champion. The first Grand Slam of the year, played on hard courts in Melbourne with the roof over Rod Laver Arena for extreme heat or rain.

The Round of 16 is played on hard court at Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park. Players start with the opening fixture listed, and the Quarter-finals follows on 25 Jan 2026.

Our schedule lists 4 rounds for this event: Round of 16 on 22 Jan 2026, Quarter-finals on 25 Jan 2026, Semi-finals on 28 Jan 2026, Final on 1 Feb 2026. Order of play is published by the tournament the day before and can change with weather.

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Answers

Questions about Sabalenka vs Pegula

  1. The Round of 16 is listed for Thursday 22 January 2026. Our schedule shows 4 rounds for this event: Round of 16 on 22 Jan 2026, Quarter-finals on 25 Jan 2026, Semi-finals on 28 Jan 2026, Final on 1 Feb 2026.

  2. Our model leans Aryna Sabalenka at 79%, with Jessica Pegula at 21%. This is a projection built on a reference player pool, not the official draw, and it is not a guarantee of the result.

  3. Aryna Sabalenka is projected to win 2–0, 6–3, 6–4. Straight sets carry 58% and a deciding set 42%.

  4. The Round of 16 is held in Melbourne, Australia, with the main court at Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park. The surface is hard court, which plays at a medium pace.

  5. Singles matches are best of three sets. Sixteen players are left at this point, and the eight winners move into the quarter-finals.

  6. No. Pairings are set by the official draw, which is not part of our schedule data. We show a projected pairing from our reference player pool so you can see the shape of the round. Check the tournament's order of play for the confirmed match.

  7. Aryna Sabalenka (BLR), Jessica Pegula (USA), Coco Gauff (USA), Amanda Anisimova (USA). These are reference names from our model and not confirmed line-ups.

  8. Common markets are match winner, set betting, total games, games handicap, tie-break, first-set winner and total aces. Prices move live, and our figures here are model references only.

  9. The champion earns 2,000 ranking points. The Round of 16 winner moves a step closer to that total.

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Pairings are a projection from our reference player pool and are not the official draw. Percentages, projected scores and impact figures are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the tournament. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

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