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Tennis · ATP · Round of 16Grand Slamhard courtProjected pairing

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil MedvedevAustralian Open (Men's Singles) Round of 16: prediction, predicted score & key players

Jannik Sinner

Win probability

82%

vs

Daniil Medvedev

Win probability

18%

Sinner 82%18% Medvedev
Predicted score
6–4, 6–4, 7–5

3–0

Start
Order of play TBC
Venue
Melbourne
Format
Best of 5

hard court

Jan 202622ThuRound of 16

Australian Open (Men's Singles) Round of 16 on 22 Jan 2026: our projection has Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev, with Jannik Sinner the 82% favourite and a predicted score of 6–4, 6–4, 7–5.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Jannik Sinner is the projected favourite at 82% over Daniil Medvedev (18%) in the Australian Open (Men's Singles) Round of 16. It is a strong lean, not a lock.

Lean: Jannik SinnerCourt: hard courtFormat: best of 5Tie-break: 45%

The Australian Open (Men's Singles) (Grand Slam) reaches the Round of 16 on Thursday 22 January 2026 at Rod Laver Arena. The first Grand Slam of the year, played on hard courts in Melbourne with the roof over Rod Laver Arena for extreme heat or rain.

Our projection has Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev as the headline match of the Round of 16. It comes from a projected bracket built on our reference player pool, not from the official draw, so the confirmed pairing can differ. Sixteen players are left at this point, and the eight winners move into the quarter-finals.

Jannik Sinner is a flat, powerful baseliner who takes the ball early and returns with pace. Daniil Medvedev is a flat, deep-standing counter-puncher with unorthodox patterns. On medium-pace hard court, our model leans Jannik Sinner, mainly through recent form.

Match ticket

Match details

Date
Thursday 22 January 2026
Tournament
Australian Open (Men's Singles)
Round
Round of 16
Category
Grand Slam
Venue
Melbourne, Australia
Main court
Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park
Surface
hard court (medium pace)
Format
Singles, best of five sets
Ranking points
2,000 ranking points
Tour
ATP tour
Projected pairing
Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev (projection, not the official draw)

Pairings are projected. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Projected line-up

Australian Open (Men's Singles) Round of 16 predictions

Projected round of 16 pairings from our bracket model, with the headline match first. Percentages are for the first-named player.

  1. Jannik SinnerITARUSDaniil Medvedev
    82%18%
  2. Carlos AlcarazESPKAZAlexander Bublik
    86%14%
  3. Novak DjokovicSRBUSAFrances Tiafoe
    83%17%
  4. Ben SheltonUSAITALorenzo Musetti
    67%33%
  5. Taylor FritzUSARUSAndrey Rublev
    73%27%
  6. Alexander ZverevGERITAFlavio Cobolli
    73%27%
  7. Alex de MinaurAUSUSATommy Paul
    63%37%
  8. Arthur FilsFRAGREStefanos Tsitsipas
    60%40%

Projected title favourite for this event: Jannik Sinner.

These pairings are projections from our reference player pool, not the official draw.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

We compare Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev on four factors: fit for hard court, serve, return and recent form. The combined lean is Jannik Sinner at 82%.

Model lean

Jannik Sinner

82% to win · 64-point gap

Sinner 82%18% Medvedev

Jannik Sinner is the strong pick because of a clear edge in recent form. Daniil Medvedev keeps a 18% chance, mostly through match-day variance.

Projected pairing: this comes from our reference player pool, so treat it as the shape of the round, not a confirmed order of play. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Medium-pace hard court conditions sit between serve-led and baseline styles, which widens the gap between the two players' styles.

Jannik SinnerDaniil Medvedev
  • 70Surface fitRated on hard court30
  • 61ServeFirst-serve weapon and hold games39
  • 59ReturnBreak-point pressure41
  • 78Recent formLevel over recent events22

Impact names

Key players to watch

Four names our model expects to matter in this round on hard court: the two headline players and the next-best names from the projected bracket.

  • Italy

    ATP

    Jannik Sinner

    Baseline power · Elite return

    Impact84%

  • Russia

    ATP

    Daniil Medvedev

    Counter-punch · Return

    Impact72%

  • Spain

    ATP

    Carlos Alcaraz

    All-court · Clay & grass

    Impact81%

  • Serbia

    ATP

    Novak Djokovic

    Best return · Big-match pedigree

    Impact77%

Names, countries and playing styles are real. Impact scores are a model reference. They are not a confirmed draw or line-up, so check the official order of play close to the match.

Scoreboard model

Predicted score & set markets

Jannik Sinner is projected to beat Daniil Medvedev 3–0, 6–4, 6–4, 7–5. The next table shows how the set and games markets line up around that call.

Predicted score

6–4, 6–4, 7–5

Jannik Sinner to beat Daniil Medvedev in 3–0

Every figure is an indicative model, not a live price. Sets and games are derived from a best of five sets format on hard court.

Set score probability

  • Sinner 3–032.5%
  • Sinner 3–130.5%
  • Sinner 3–219%
  • Medvedev 3–28.7%
  • Medvedev 3–16.3%
  • Medvedev 3–03.1%

  • Total games

    32–42

    Line 36.5. Average 36.6 games.

  • Tie-break

    45%

    About 14% per set.

  • Total aces

    20–31

    Sinner ~14, Medvedev ~12.

  • Match length

    2h 38m–3h 21m

    About 3.9 sets expected.

Model lean for each tennis market
MarketModel leanWhy
Match winnerJannik Sinner 82%strong lean over Daniil Medvedev (18%).
Set bettingJannik Sinner 3–03–0 for Sinner carries 33%. A deciding set is 28%.
Total gamesOver 36.5Model average is 36.6 games, in a range of 32–42.
Games handicapSinner −7.5Sinner is projected to win by about 8 more games than Medvedev.
Tie-break in matchNo 55%About 14% per set on hard court.
First set winnerSinner 67%Medvedev takes at least one set 67% of the time.
Total aces20–31Sinner about 14, Medvedev about 12.
Match length2h 38m–3h 21mBased on 3.9 sets at hard court pace.

Popular tennis betting markets

The markets followers look at most for this match, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.

  • Match winner

    Back the player or nation you expect to win the match, whatever the score.

    Model lean: Jannik Sinner at 82%.

    How this market works

  • Set betting

    Pick the exact set score of a best of five sets match, such as 3–0.

    Most likely: Sinner 3–0, then a deciding set at 28%.

    How this market works

  • Total games

    Bet over or under a games line. Close, serve-led matches push the total up.

    Over 36.5 at a 36.6-game average.

    How this market works

  • Games handicap

    Give or take games to level up a mismatch, so the favourite has to win by a margin.

    Sinner −7.5 sits near the model's margin.

    How this market works

  • Tie-break market

    Predict whether any set reaches 6–6 and needs a tie-break.

    45% for at least one tie-break in the match.

    How this market works

  • Live tennis markets

    Prices move point by point, so first-set and break-of-serve lines can swing quickly.

    Medvedev steals a set 67% of the time, which is why live lines matter.

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet this match?

  • A clear storyline

    Jannik Sinner carry a strong lean, so the interest is in the score and games markets, where the favourite still has to convert.

  • The court shapes the markets

    Medium-pace hard court. It moves the total games line and the tie-break chance (45%), so surface reading is part of the edge.

  • Depth of markets

    Winner, set score, total games, handicap, tie-break, aces and first-set lines all exist for a Grand Slam round of 16, so you can pick the one that matches what you actually think.

  • Live pricing

    A best of five sets match has many turning points. Break points and set momentum move live prices, and our model shows a 67% chance the underdog takes a set.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Fixture guide

About Australian Open (Men's Singles) Round of 16

The Australian Open (Men's Singles) is a Grand Slam event, worth 2,000 ranking points to the champion. The first Grand Slam of the year, played on hard courts in Melbourne with the roof over Rod Laver Arena for extreme heat or rain.

The Round of 16 is played on hard court at Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park. Players start with the opening fixture listed, and the Quarter-finals follows on 25 Jan 2026.

Our schedule lists 4 rounds for this event: Round of 16 on 22 Jan 2026, Quarter-finals on 25 Jan 2026, Semi-finals on 28 Jan 2026, Final on 1 Feb 2026. Order of play is published by the tournament the day before and can change with weather.

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Answers

Questions about Sinner vs Medvedev

  1. The Round of 16 is listed for Thursday 22 January 2026. Our schedule shows 4 rounds for this event: Round of 16 on 22 Jan 2026, Quarter-finals on 25 Jan 2026, Semi-finals on 28 Jan 2026, Final on 1 Feb 2026.

  2. Our model leans Jannik Sinner at 82%, with Daniil Medvedev at 18%. This is a projection built on a reference player pool, not the official draw, and it is not a guarantee of the result.

  3. Jannik Sinner is projected to win 3–0, 6–4, 6–4, 7–5. Straight sets carry 36% and a deciding set 28%.

  4. The Round of 16 is held in Melbourne, Australia, with the main court at Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park. The surface is hard court, which plays at a medium pace.

  5. Singles matches are best of five sets. Sixteen players are left at this point, and the eight winners move into the quarter-finals.

  6. No. Pairings are set by the official draw, which is not part of our schedule data. We show a projected pairing from our reference player pool so you can see the shape of the round. Check the tournament's order of play for the confirmed match.

  7. Jannik Sinner (ITA), Daniil Medvedev (RUS), Carlos Alcaraz (ESP), Novak Djokovic (SRB). These are reference names from our model and not confirmed line-ups.

  8. Common markets are match winner, set betting, total games, games handicap, tie-break, first-set winner and total aces. Prices move live, and our figures here are model references only.

  9. The champion earns 2,000 ranking points. The Round of 16 winner moves a step closer to that total.

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Pairings are a projection from our reference player pool and are not the official draw. Percentages, projected scores and impact figures are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the tournament. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

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