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Tennis · WTA · Round of 16Grand SlamgrassProjected pairing

Elena Rybakina vs Jasmine PaoliniWimbledon (Women's Singles) Round of 16: prediction, predicted score & key players

Elena Rybakina

Win probability

68%

vs

Jasmine Paolini

Win probability

32%

Rybakina 68%32% Paolini
Predicted score
6–3, 6–4

2–0

Start
Order of play TBC
Venue
London
Format
Best of 3

grass

Jul 202602ThuRound of 16

Wimbledon (Women's Singles) Round of 16 on 2 Jul 2026: our projection has Elena Rybakina vs Jasmine Paolini, with Elena Rybakina the 68% favourite and a predicted score of 6–3, 6–4.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Elena Rybakina is the projected favourite at 68% over Jasmine Paolini (32%) in the Wimbledon (Women's Singles) Round of 16. It is a strong lean, not a lock.

Lean: Elena RybakinaCourt: grassFormat: best of 3Tie-break: 41%

The Wimbledon (Women's Singles) (Grand Slam) reaches the Round of 16 on Thursday 2 July 2026 at Centre Court. The grass-court Grand Slam at the All England Club, where fast surfaces reward serving and first-strike tennis.

Our projection has Elena Rybakina vs Jasmine Paolini as the headline match of the Round of 16. It comes from a projected bracket built on our reference player pool, not from the official draw, so the confirmed pairing can differ. Sixteen players are left at this point, and the eight winners move into the quarter-finals.

Elena Rybakina is a big flat server with clean ball-striking that suits faster courts. Jasmine Paolini is a fast, counter-punching all-courter who is strongest on clay. On fast, low-bouncing grass, our model leans Elena Rybakina, mainly through serve.

Match ticket

Match details

Date
Thursday 2 July 2026
Tournament
Wimbledon (Women's Singles)
Round
Round of 16
Category
Grand Slam
Venue
London, UK
Main court
Centre Court, All England Club
Surface
grass (fast pace)
Format
Singles, best of three sets
Ranking points
2,000 ranking points
Tour
WTA tour
Projected pairing
Elena Rybakina vs Jasmine Paolini (projection, not the official draw)

Pairings are projected. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Projected line-up

Wimbledon (Women's Singles) Round of 16 predictions

Projected round of 16 pairings from our bracket model, with the headline match first. Percentages are for the first-named player.

  1. Elena RybakinaKAZITAJasmine Paolini
    68%32%
  2. Aryna SabalenkaBLRCZEKarolina Muchova
    76%24%
  3. Coco GauffUSARUSEkaterina Alexandrova
    58%42%
  4. Madison KeysUSARUSMirra Andreeva
    53%47%
  5. Iga SwiatekPOLRUSLiudmila Samsonova
    81%19%
  6. Amanda AnisimovaUSAGERLaura Siegemund
    86%14%
  7. Jessica PegulaUSAUKRElina Svitolina
    50%50%
  8. Barbora KrejcikovaCZESUIBelinda Bencic
    64%36%

Projected title favourite for this event: Aryna Sabalenka.

These pairings are projections from our reference player pool, not the official draw.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

We compare Elena Rybakina and Jasmine Paolini on four factors: fit for grass, serve, return and recent form. The combined lean is Elena Rybakina at 68%.

Model lean

Elena Rybakina

68% to win · 36-point gap

Rybakina 68%32% Paolini

Elena Rybakina is the strong pick because of a clear edge in serve. Jasmine Paolini keeps a 32% chance, mostly through return and match-day variance.

Projected pairing: this comes from our reference player pool, so treat it as the shape of the round, not a confirmed order of play. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Fast, low-bouncing grass conditions reward big servers and short points, which narrows the gap between the two players' styles.

Elena RybakinaJasmine Paolini
  • 64Surface fitRated on grass36
  • 78ServeFirst-serve weapon and hold games22
  • 46ReturnBreak-point pressure54
  • 57Recent formLevel over recent events43

Impact names

Key players to watch

Four names our model expects to matter in this round on grass: the two headline players and the next-best names from the projected bracket.

  • Kazakhstan

    WTA

    Elena Rybakina

    Big serve · Grass

    Impact77%

  • Italy

    WTA

    Jasmine Paolini

    Clay · Movement

    Impact70%

  • Belarus

    WTA

    Aryna Sabalenka

    Power · Big serve

    Impact78%

  • United States

    WTA

    Amanda Anisimova

    Ball-striker · Return

    Impact77%

Names, countries and playing styles are real. Impact scores are a model reference. They are not a confirmed draw or line-up, so check the official order of play close to the match.

Scoreboard model

Predicted score & set markets

Elena Rybakina is projected to beat Jasmine Paolini 2–0, 6–3, 6–4. The next table shows how the set and games markets line up around that call.

Predicted score

6–3, 6–4

Elena Rybakina to beat Jasmine Paolini in 2–0

Every figure is an indicative model, not a live price. Sets and games are derived from a best of three sets format on grass.

Set score probability

  • Rybakina 2–038.7%
  • Rybakina 2–129.3%
  • Paolini 2–117.7%
  • Paolini 2–014.3%

  • Total games

    21–27

    Line 24.5. Average 24.2 games.

  • Tie-break

    41%

    About 19% per set.

  • Total aces

    15–23

    Rybakina ~13, Paolini ~6.

  • Match length

    1h 33m–1h 59m

    About 2.5 sets expected.

Model lean for each tennis market
MarketModel leanWhy
Match winnerElena Rybakina 68%strong lean over Jasmine Paolini (32%).
Set bettingElena Rybakina 2–02–0 for Rybakina carries 39%. A deciding set is 47%.
Total gamesUnder 24.5Model average is 24.2 games, in a range of 21–27.
Games handicapRybakina −3.5Rybakina is projected to win by about 4 more games than Paolini.
Tie-break in matchNo 59%About 19% per set on grass.
First set winnerRybakina 61%Paolini takes at least one set 61% of the time.
Total aces15–23Rybakina about 13, Paolini about 6.
Match length1h 33m–1h 59mBased on 2.5 sets at grass pace.

Popular tennis betting markets

The markets followers look at most for this match, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.

  • Match winner

    Back the player or nation you expect to win the match, whatever the score.

    Model lean: Elena Rybakina at 68%.

    How this market works

  • Set betting

    Pick the exact set score of a best of three sets match, such as 2–0.

    Most likely: Rybakina 2–0, then a deciding set at 47%.

    How this market works

  • Total games

    Bet over or under a games line. Close, serve-led matches push the total up.

    Under 24.5 at a 24.2-game average.

    How this market works

  • Games handicap

    Give or take games to level up a mismatch, so the favourite has to win by a margin.

    Rybakina −3.5 sits near the model's margin.

    How this market works

  • Tie-break market

    Predict whether any set reaches 6–6 and needs a tie-break.

    41% for at least one tie-break in the match.

    How this market works

  • Live tennis markets

    Prices move point by point, so first-set and break-of-serve lines can swing quickly.

    Paolini steals a set 61% of the time, which is why live lines matter.

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet this match?

  • A clear storyline

    Elena Rybakina carry a strong lean, so the interest is in the score and games markets, where the favourite still has to convert.

  • The court shapes the markets

    Fast, low-bouncing grass. It moves the total games line and the tie-break chance (41%), so surface reading is part of the edge.

  • Depth of markets

    Winner, set score, total games, handicap, tie-break, aces and first-set lines all exist for a Grand Slam round of 16, so you can pick the one that matches what you actually think.

  • Live pricing

    A best of three sets match has many turning points. Break points and set momentum move live prices, and our model shows a 61% chance the underdog takes a set.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Fixture guide

About Wimbledon (Women's Singles) Round of 16

The Wimbledon (Women's Singles) is a Grand Slam event, worth 2,000 ranking points to the champion. The grass-court Grand Slam at the All England Club, where fast surfaces reward serving and first-strike tennis.

The Round of 16 is played on grass at Centre Court, All England Club. Players start with the opening fixture listed, and the Quarter-finals follows on 5 Jul 2026.

Our schedule lists 4 rounds for this event: Round of 16 on 2 Jul 2026, Quarter-finals on 5 Jul 2026, Semi-finals on 8 Jul 2026, Final on 12 Jul 2026. Order of play is published by the tournament the day before and can change with weather.

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Answers

Questions about Rybakina vs Paolini

  1. The Round of 16 is listed for Thursday 2 July 2026. Our schedule shows 4 rounds for this event: Round of 16 on 2 Jul 2026, Quarter-finals on 5 Jul 2026, Semi-finals on 8 Jul 2026, Final on 12 Jul 2026.

  2. Our model leans Elena Rybakina at 68%, with Jasmine Paolini at 32%. This is a projection built on a reference player pool, not the official draw, and it is not a guarantee of the result.

  3. Elena Rybakina is projected to win 2–0, 6–3, 6–4. Straight sets carry 53% and a deciding set 47%.

  4. The Round of 16 is held in London, UK, with the main court at Centre Court, All England Club. The surface is grass, which plays fast, so servers get more free points.

  5. Singles matches are best of three sets. Sixteen players are left at this point, and the eight winners move into the quarter-finals.

  6. No. Pairings are set by the official draw, which is not part of our schedule data. We show a projected pairing from our reference player pool so you can see the shape of the round. Check the tournament's order of play for the confirmed match.

  7. Elena Rybakina (KAZ), Jasmine Paolini (ITA), Aryna Sabalenka (BLR), Amanda Anisimova (USA). These are reference names from our model and not confirmed line-ups.

  8. Common markets are match winner, set betting, total games, games handicap, tie-break, first-set winner and total aces. Prices move live, and our figures here are model references only.

  9. The champion earns 2,000 ranking points. The Round of 16 winner moves a step closer to that total.

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Pairings are a projection from our reference player pool and are not the official draw. Percentages, projected scores and impact figures are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the tournament. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

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