Adults only · Information, not wagering · Set limits and play responsibly
Gold365

AI overview · What this page shows

Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.

Tennis · ATP · Round of 16Grand Slamhard courtProjected pairing

Jannik Sinner vs Karen KhachanovUS Open (Men's Singles) Round of 16: prediction, predicted score & key players

Jannik Sinner

Win probability

86%

vs

Karen Khachanov

Win probability

14%

Sinner 86%14% Khachanov
Predicted score
6–3, 6–2, 6–4

3–0

Start
Order of play TBC
Venue
New York
Format
Best of 5

hard court

Aug 202629SatRound of 16

US Open (Men's Singles) Round of 16 on 29 Aug 2026: our projection has Jannik Sinner vs Karen Khachanov, with Jannik Sinner the 86% favourite and a predicted score of 6–3, 6–2, 6–4.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Jannik Sinner is the projected favourite at 86% over Karen Khachanov (14%) in the US Open (Men's Singles) Round of 16. It is a strong lean, not a lock.

Lean: Jannik SinnerCourt: hard courtFormat: best of 5Tie-break: 51%

On Saturday 29 August 2026 the US Open (Men's Singles) (Grand Slam) plays its Round of 16 in New York. The final Grand Slam of the year, played on hard courts in New York with matches that run late into the night.

Our projection has Jannik Sinner vs Karen Khachanov as the headline match of the Round of 16. It comes from a projected bracket built on our reference player pool, not from the official draw, so the confirmed pairing can differ. Sixteen players are left at this point, and the eight winners move into the quarter-finals.

Jannik Sinner is a flat, powerful baseliner who takes the ball early and returns with pace. Karen Khachanov is a big server with a flat two-handed backhand and heavy groundstrokes. On medium-pace hard court, our model leans Jannik Sinner, mainly through surface fit.

Match ticket

Match details

Date
Saturday 29 August 2026
Tournament
US Open (Men's Singles)
Round
Round of 16
Category
Grand Slam
Venue
New York, USA
Main court
Arthur Ashe Stadium, USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
Surface
hard court (medium pace)
Format
Singles, best of five sets
Ranking points
2,000 ranking points
Tour
ATP tour
Projected pairing
Jannik Sinner vs Karen Khachanov (projection, not the official draw)

Pairings are projected. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Projected line-up

US Open (Men's Singles) Round of 16 predictions

Projected round of 16 pairings from our bracket model, with the headline match first. Percentages are for the first-named player.

  1. Jannik SinnerITARUSKaren Khachanov
    86%14%
  2. Novak DjokovicSRBAUSAlex de Minaur
    64%36%
  3. Carlos AlcarazESPPOLHubert Hurkacz
    86%14%
  4. Felix Auger-AliassimeCANRUSAndrey Rublev
    61%39%
  5. Alexander ZverevGERFRAUgo Humbert
    83%17%
  6. Ben SheltonUSAUSAFrances Tiafoe
    70%30%
  7. Daniil MedvedevRUSDENHolger Rune
    69%31%
  8. Taylor FritzUSAKAZAlexander Bublik
    70%30%

Projected title favourite for this event: Jannik Sinner.

These pairings are projections from our reference player pool, not the official draw.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

We compare Jannik Sinner and Karen Khachanov on four factors: fit for hard court, serve, return and recent form. The combined lean is Jannik Sinner at 86%.

Model lean

Jannik Sinner

86% to win · 72-point gap

Sinner 86%14% Khachanov

Jannik Sinner is the strong pick because of a clear edge in surface fit. Karen Khachanov keeps a 14% chance, mostly through match-day variance.

Projected pairing: this comes from our reference player pool, so treat it as the shape of the round, not a confirmed order of play. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Medium-pace hard court conditions sit between serve-led and baseline styles, which widens the gap between the two players' styles.

Jannik SinnerKaren Khachanov
  • 78Surface fitRated on hard court22
  • 54ServeFirst-serve weapon and hold games46
  • 78ReturnBreak-point pressure22
  • 78Recent formLevel over recent events22

Impact names

Key players to watch

Four names our model expects to matter in this round on hard court: the two headline players and the next-best names from the projected bracket.

  • Italy

    ATP

    Jannik Sinner

    Baseline power · Elite return

    Impact84%

  • Russia

    ATP

    Karen Khachanov

    Big serve · Backhand

    Impact66%

  • Spain

    ATP

    Carlos Alcaraz

    All-court · Clay & grass

    Impact81%

  • Serbia

    ATP

    Novak Djokovic

    Best return · Big-match pedigree

    Impact77%

Names, countries and playing styles are real. Impact scores are a model reference. They are not a confirmed draw or line-up, so check the official order of play close to the match.

Scoreboard model

Predicted score & set markets

Jannik Sinner is projected to beat Karen Khachanov 3–0, 6–3, 6–2, 6–4. The next table shows how the set and games markets line up around that call.

Predicted score

6–3, 6–2, 6–4

Jannik Sinner to beat Karen Khachanov in 3–0

Every figure is an indicative model, not a live price. Sets and games are derived from a best of five sets format on hard court.

Set score probability

  • Sinner 3–037%
  • Sinner 3–131.3%
  • Sinner 3–217.7%
  • Khachanov 3–26.9%
  • Khachanov 3–14.8%
  • Khachanov 3–02.2%

  • Total games

    31–41

    Line 35.5. Average 35.6 games.

  • Tie-break

    51%

    About 17% per set.

  • Total aces

    21–32

    Sinner ~14, Khachanov ~13.

  • Match length

    2h 34m–3h 16m

    About 3.9 sets expected.

Model lean for each tennis market
MarketModel leanWhy
Match winnerJannik Sinner 86%strong lean over Karen Khachanov (14%).
Set bettingJannik Sinner 3–03–0 for Sinner carries 37%. A deciding set is 25%.
Total gamesOver 35.5Model average is 35.6 games, in a range of 31–41.
Games handicapSinner −8.5Sinner is projected to win by about 9 more games than Khachanov.
Tie-break in matchYes 51%About 17% per set on hard court.
First set winnerSinner 70%Khachanov takes at least one set 63% of the time.
Total aces21–32Sinner about 14, Khachanov about 13.
Match length2h 34m–3h 16mBased on 3.9 sets at hard court pace.

Popular tennis betting markets

The markets followers look at most for this match, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.

  • Match winner

    Back the player or nation you expect to win the match, whatever the score.

    Model lean: Jannik Sinner at 86%.

    How this market works

  • Set betting

    Pick the exact set score of a best of five sets match, such as 3–0.

    Most likely: Sinner 3–0, then a deciding set at 25%.

    How this market works

  • Total games

    Bet over or under a games line. Close, serve-led matches push the total up.

    Over 35.5 at a 35.6-game average.

    How this market works

  • Games handicap

    Give or take games to level up a mismatch, so the favourite has to win by a margin.

    Sinner −8.5 sits near the model's margin.

    How this market works

  • Tie-break market

    Predict whether any set reaches 6–6 and needs a tie-break.

    51% for at least one tie-break in the match.

    How this market works

  • Live tennis markets

    Prices move point by point, so first-set and break-of-serve lines can swing quickly.

    Khachanov steals a set 63% of the time, which is why live lines matter.

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet this match?

  • A clear storyline

    Jannik Sinner carry a strong lean, so the interest is in the score and games markets, where the favourite still has to convert.

  • The court shapes the markets

    Medium-pace hard court. It moves the total games line and the tie-break chance (51%), so surface reading is part of the edge.

  • Depth of markets

    Winner, set score, total games, handicap, tie-break, aces and first-set lines all exist for a Grand Slam round of 16, so you can pick the one that matches what you actually think.

  • Live pricing

    A best of five sets match has many turning points. Break points and set momentum move live prices, and our model shows a 63% chance the underdog takes a set.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Fixture guide

About US Open (Men's Singles) Round of 16

The US Open (Men's Singles) is a Grand Slam event, worth 2,000 ranking points to the champion. The final Grand Slam of the year, played on hard courts in New York with matches that run late into the night.

The Round of 16 is played on hard court at Arthur Ashe Stadium, USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Players start with the opening fixture listed, and the Quarter-finals follows on 2 Sept 2026.

Our schedule lists 4 rounds for this event: Round of 16 on 29 Aug 2026, Quarter-finals on 2 Sept 2026, Semi-finals on 6 Sept 2026, Final on 13 Sept 2026. Order of play is published by the tournament the day before and can change with weather.

Keep following

Other upcoming tennis matches

All tennis fixturesSee the full US Open (Men's Singles) (ATP) table

Read before you follow

Related guides & blogs

Keep exploring

More from Gold365

Answers

Questions about Sinner vs Khachanov

  1. The Round of 16 is listed for Saturday 29 August 2026. Our schedule shows 4 rounds for this event: Round of 16 on 29 Aug 2026, Quarter-finals on 2 Sept 2026, Semi-finals on 6 Sept 2026, Final on 13 Sept 2026.

  2. Our model leans Jannik Sinner at 86%, with Karen Khachanov at 14%. This is a projection built on a reference player pool, not the official draw, and it is not a guarantee of the result.

  3. Jannik Sinner is projected to win 3–0, 6–3, 6–2, 6–4. Straight sets carry 39% and a deciding set 25%.

  4. The Round of 16 is held in New York, USA, with the main court at Arthur Ashe Stadium, USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. The surface is hard court, which plays at a medium pace.

  5. Singles matches are best of five sets. Sixteen players are left at this point, and the eight winners move into the quarter-finals.

  6. No. Pairings are set by the official draw, which is not part of our schedule data. We show a projected pairing from our reference player pool so you can see the shape of the round. Check the tournament's order of play for the confirmed match.

  7. Jannik Sinner (ITA), Karen Khachanov (RUS), Carlos Alcaraz (ESP), Novak Djokovic (SRB). These are reference names from our model and not confirmed line-ups.

  8. Common markets are match winner, set betting, total games, games handicap, tie-break, first-set winner and total aces. Prices move live, and our figures here are model references only.

  9. The champion earns 2,000 ranking points. The Round of 16 winner moves a step closer to that total.

Cannot find what you need? Our official WhatsApp desk replies with your ID and a screenshot.

Ask on WhatsApp

Pairings are a projection from our reference player pool and are not the official draw. Percentages, projected scores and impact figures are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the tournament. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

Tennis scheduleResponsible gaming