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Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.

Tennis · WTA · Round of 16Grand SlamclayProjected pairing

Iga Swiatek vs Marta KostyukRoland Garros (Women's Singles) Round of 16: prediction, predicted score & key players

Iga Swiatek

Win probability

86%

vs

Marta Kostyuk

Win probability

14%

Swiatek 86%14% Kostyuk
Predicted score
6–2, 6–3

2–0

Start
Order of play TBC
Venue
Paris
Format
Best of 3

clay

May 202627WedRound of 16

Roland Garros (Women's Singles) Round of 16 on 27 May 2026: our projection has Iga Swiatek vs Marta Kostyuk, with Iga Swiatek the 86% favourite and a predicted score of 6–2, 6–3.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Iga Swiatek is the projected favourite at 86% over Marta Kostyuk (14%) in the Roland Garros (Women's Singles) Round of 16. It is a strong lean, not a lock.

Lean: Iga SwiatekCourt: clayFormat: best of 3Tie-break: 11%

The Roland Garros (Women's Singles) (Grand Slam) reaches the Round of 16 on Wednesday 27 May 2026 at Court Philippe-Chatrier. The clay-court Grand Slam in Paris, where long rallies and physical endurance count for the most.

Our projection has Iga Swiatek vs Marta Kostyuk as the headline match of the Round of 16. It comes from a projected bracket built on our reference player pool, not from the official draw, so the confirmed pairing can differ. Sixteen players are left at this point, and the eight winners move into the quarter-finals.

Iga Swiatek is a heavy-topspin forehand player with elite movement and the clay benchmark. Marta Kostyuk is an aggressive baseliner with a fierce competitive streak. On slow, high-bouncing clay, our model leans Iga Swiatek, mainly through surface fit.

Match ticket

Match details

Date
Wednesday 27 May 2026
Tournament
Roland Garros (Women's Singles)
Round
Round of 16
Category
Grand Slam
Venue
Paris, France
Main court
Court Philippe-Chatrier, Paris
Surface
clay (slow pace)
Format
Singles, best of three sets
Ranking points
2,000 ranking points
Tour
WTA tour
Projected pairing
Iga Swiatek vs Marta Kostyuk (projection, not the official draw)

Pairings are projected. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Projected line-up

Roland Garros (Women's Singles) Round of 16 predictions

Projected round of 16 pairings from our bracket model, with the headline match first. Percentages are for the first-named player.

  1. Iga SwiatekPOLUKRMarta Kostyuk
    86%14%
  2. Jasmine PaoliniITACZEBarbora Krejcikova
    68%32%
  3. Aryna SabalenkaBLRRUSLiudmila Samsonova
    86%14%
  4. Elena RybakinaKAZUSAJessica Pegula
    62%38%
  5. Coco GauffUSASUIBelinda Bencic
    86%14%
  6. Amanda AnisimovaUSAUKRElina Svitolina
    52%48%
  7. Mirra AndreevaRUSJPNNaomi Osaka
    75%25%
  8. Karolina MuchovaCZERUSEkaterina Alexandrova
    62%38%

Projected title favourite for this event: Iga Swiatek.

These pairings are projections from our reference player pool, not the official draw.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

We compare Iga Swiatek and Marta Kostyuk on four factors: fit for clay, serve, return and recent form. The combined lean is Iga Swiatek at 86%.

Model lean

Iga Swiatek

86% to win · 72-point gap

Swiatek 86%14% Kostyuk

Iga Swiatek is the strong pick because of a clear edge in surface fit. Marta Kostyuk keeps a 14% chance, mostly through match-day variance.

Projected pairing: this comes from our reference player pool, so treat it as the shape of the round, not a confirmed order of play. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Slow, high-bouncing clay conditions favour patient baseliners and return games, which widens the gap between the two players' styles.

Iga SwiatekMarta Kostyuk
  • 78Surface fitRated on clay22
  • 57ServeFirst-serve weapon and hold games43
  • 72ReturnBreak-point pressure28
  • 78Recent formLevel over recent events22

Impact names

Key players to watch

Four names our model expects to matter in this round on clay: the two headline players and the next-best names from the projected bracket.

  • Poland

    WTA

    Iga Swiatek

    Clay · Topspin

    Impact81%

  • Ukraine

    WTA

    Marta Kostyuk

    Aggressive · Fighter

    Impact63%

  • Belarus

    WTA

    Aryna Sabalenka

    Power · Big serve

    Impact78%

  • United States

    WTA

    Coco Gauff

    Defence · Athletic

    Impact77%

Names, countries and playing styles are real. Impact scores are a model reference. They are not a confirmed draw or line-up, so check the official order of play close to the match.

Scoreboard model

Predicted score & set markets

Iga Swiatek is projected to beat Marta Kostyuk 2–0, 6–2, 6–3. The next table shows how the set and games markets line up around that call.

Predicted score

6–2, 6–3

Iga Swiatek to beat Marta Kostyuk in 2–0

Every figure is an indicative model, not a live price. Sets and games are derived from a best of three sets format on clay.

Set score probability

  • Swiatek 2–058.5%
  • Swiatek 2–127.5%
  • Kostyuk 2–18.5%
  • Kostyuk 2–05.5%

  • Total games

    18–24

    Line 20.5. Average 20.8 games.

  • Tie-break

    11%

    About 5% per set.

  • Total aces

    7–10

    Swiatek ~4, Kostyuk ~4.

  • Match length

    1h 47m–2h 16m

    About 2.4 sets expected.

Model lean for each tennis market
MarketModel leanWhy
Match winnerIga Swiatek 86%strong lean over Marta Kostyuk (14%).
Set bettingIga Swiatek 2–02–0 for Swiatek carries 59%. A deciding set is 36%.
Total gamesOver 20.5Model average is 20.8 games, in a range of 18–24.
Games handicapSwiatek −6.5Swiatek is projected to win by about 7 more games than Kostyuk.
Tie-break in matchNo 89%About 5% per set on clay.
First set winnerSwiatek 74%Kostyuk takes at least one set 41% of the time.
Total aces7–10Swiatek about 4, Kostyuk about 4.
Match length1h 47m–2h 16mBased on 2.4 sets at clay pace.

Popular tennis betting markets

The markets followers look at most for this match, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.

  • Match winner

    Back the player or nation you expect to win the match, whatever the score.

    Model lean: Iga Swiatek at 86%.

    How this market works

  • Set betting

    Pick the exact set score of a best of three sets match, such as 2–0.

    Most likely: Swiatek 2–0, then a deciding set at 36%.

    How this market works

  • Total games

    Bet over or under a games line. Close, serve-led matches push the total up.

    Over 20.5 at a 20.8-game average.

    How this market works

  • Games handicap

    Give or take games to level up a mismatch, so the favourite has to win by a margin.

    Swiatek −6.5 sits near the model's margin.

    How this market works

  • Tie-break market

    Predict whether any set reaches 6–6 and needs a tie-break.

    11% for at least one tie-break in the match.

    How this market works

  • Live tennis markets

    Prices move point by point, so first-set and break-of-serve lines can swing quickly.

    Kostyuk steals a set 41% of the time, which is why live lines matter.

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet this match?

  • A clear storyline

    Iga Swiatek carry a strong lean, so the interest is in the score and games markets, where the favourite still has to convert.

  • The court shapes the markets

    Slow, high-bouncing clay. It moves the total games line and the tie-break chance (11%), so surface reading is part of the edge.

  • Depth of markets

    Winner, set score, total games, handicap, tie-break, aces and first-set lines all exist for a Grand Slam round of 16, so you can pick the one that matches what you actually think.

  • Live pricing

    A best of three sets match has many turning points. Break points and set momentum move live prices, and our model shows a 41% chance the underdog takes a set.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Fixture guide

About Roland Garros (Women's Singles) Round of 16

The Roland Garros (Women's Singles) is a Grand Slam event, worth 2,000 ranking points to the champion. The clay-court Grand Slam in Paris, where long rallies and physical endurance count for the most.

The Round of 16 is played on clay at Court Philippe-Chatrier, Paris. Players start with the opening fixture listed, and the Quarter-finals follows on 30 May 2026.

Our schedule lists 4 rounds for this event: Round of 16 on 27 May 2026, Quarter-finals on 30 May 2026, Semi-finals on 2 Jun 2026, Final on 7 Jun 2026. Order of play is published by the tournament the day before and can change with weather.

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Answers

Questions about Swiatek vs Kostyuk

  1. The Round of 16 is listed for Wednesday 27 May 2026. Our schedule shows 4 rounds for this event: Round of 16 on 27 May 2026, Quarter-finals on 30 May 2026, Semi-finals on 2 Jun 2026, Final on 7 Jun 2026.

  2. Our model leans Iga Swiatek at 86%, with Marta Kostyuk at 14%. This is a projection built on a reference player pool, not the official draw, and it is not a guarantee of the result.

  3. Iga Swiatek is projected to win 2–0, 6–2, 6–3. Straight sets carry 64% and a deciding set 36%.

  4. The Round of 16 is held in Paris, France, with the main court at Court Philippe-Chatrier, Paris. The surface is clay, which plays slow, so rallies run longer.

  5. Singles matches are best of three sets. Sixteen players are left at this point, and the eight winners move into the quarter-finals.

  6. No. Pairings are set by the official draw, which is not part of our schedule data. We show a projected pairing from our reference player pool so you can see the shape of the round. Check the tournament's order of play for the confirmed match.

  7. Iga Swiatek (POL), Marta Kostyuk (UKR), Aryna Sabalenka (BLR), Coco Gauff (USA). These are reference names from our model and not confirmed line-ups.

  8. Common markets are match winner, set betting, total games, games handicap, tie-break, first-set winner and total aces. Prices move live, and our figures here are model references only.

  9. The champion earns 2,000 ranking points. The Round of 16 winner moves a step closer to that total.

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Pairings are a projection from our reference player pool and are not the official draw. Percentages, projected scores and impact figures are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the tournament. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

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