AI overview · What this page shows
Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.
West Indies
Day-one score
269–328
Pakistan
Day-one score
291–354
West Indies vs Pakistan (1st Test) at Brian Lara Stadium on 28 Jul 2026: our model leans Pakistan at 54% on a dry / turning surface, with a projected day-one score after 90 overs of 291–354.
At a glance
AI overview
Pakistan start as the favourite in the 1st Test at Brian Lara Stadium, but 14% of our model's weight sits on a draw, so the first two sessions matter most.
Brian Lara Stadium hosts West Indies against Pakistan in the 1st Test, number 2 in a 3-match Pakistan tour of West Indies, 2026. It is listed for Tuesday 28 July 2026, with the start at 19:30 IST. West Indies have home conditions on their side, which our model counts as a small edge.
West Indies's edge is their batting depth, while Pakistan's is their pace attack. The side whose strength suits Brian Lara Stadium gets the first say. Brian Lara Stadium is a slow, low surface where spin and cutters are hard to get away, so we expect a dry / turning surface with a first-day score around 291–354 for Pakistan and 269–328 for West Indies.
Rain is a real risk at this time of year, so watch the forecast and the covers around the toss. Because a draw is a live result here (14%), watch how much time is lost before you read anything into a single session.
Match ticket
Cricket dates follow each series window, so confirm the exact day with the host board.
Win probability
West Indies 32%, draw 14%, Pakistan 54%. A draw carries real weight in a Test, so read the split as three outcomes rather than two.
Model lean
Pakistan
54% to win · 22-point gap
The split comes from batting, pace and spin ratings for both teams, adjusted for Brian Lara Stadium and West Indies's home conditions. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.
On a turning surface, Pakistan's spinners get the extra weight in the model.
Rain and bad light matter more in a longer match, so the draw figure moves first when the forecast changes.
Impact names
Four names our model expects to move this match on dry / turning conditions.
West Indies
Wicketkeeper
Nicholas Pooran
Top-order stability
West Indies
Batter
Rovman Powell
Top-order firepower
Pakistan
Fast bowler
Haris Rauf
Death-overs specialist
Pakistan
Spinner
Usama Mir
Turn on this surface
These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed selection. Check the official team announcement close to the toss.
Scoreboard model
Projected day-one score by session for each side, followed by the cumulative curve across 90 overs.
| Session | West Indies | Pakistan |
|---|---|---|
| Session 1Overs 1–30 | 85–102 | 92–110 |
| Session 2Overs 31–60 | 94–113 | 102–122 |
| Session 3Overs 61–90 | 90–113 | 97–122 |
| Day one, 90 overs | 269–328 | 291–354 |
Overs bowled
After 30 overs
WI 94PAK 101
After 60 overs
WI 198PAK 213
After 90 overs
WI 299PAK 322
Sessions are modelled at 30 overs each, and the totals are for the first 90 overs of a first innings.
Team details
West Indies's edge is their batting depth, while Pakistan's is their pace attack. The side whose strength suits Brian Lara Stadium gets the first say.
West Indies come in with big-hitting depth in white-ball cricket and raw pace that can win a session on its own. In this Test, their batting depth is their strongest suit.
Brian Lara Stadium is a fair test rather than an obvious fit. Familiar home conditions help their planning. Their key question is how they handle Pakistan's pace attack.
Pakistan come in with a pace-heavy bowling group and a batting order that swings between brilliant and brittle. In this Test, their pace attack is their strongest suit.
Brian Lara Stadium is a fair test rather than an obvious fit. Their key question is how they handle West Indies's batting depth.
Brian Lara Stadium is a slow, low surface where spin and cutters are hard to get away. Our surface tag for this match is dry / turning, with a scoring index of 3 out of 5.
Setting a target tends to pay, because the pitch is expected to get harder to bat on.
Rain is a real risk at this time of year, so watch the forecast and the covers around the toss.
Venue: Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba. Surface tags are editorial estimates and can change on the day.
Market guide
The markets most followers look at for West Indies vs Pakistan, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.
Backs a team to win, or the draw. Unlike limited-overs cricket the market has three outcomes.
Model split: West Indies 32%, draw 14%, Pakistan 54%.
How this market worksA separate market on who wins the coin toss. It settles before the first ball.
Toss lean is to bat first, so watch which captain has to choose.
How this market worksLines on how many runs a side scores in a session, or in a fixed number of overs.
Session 1: West Indies 85–102, Pakistan 92–110.
How this market worksBets on which side leads after both first innings, or by how many runs.
Day-one projection: West Indies 269–328, Pakistan 291–354.
How this market worksPicks the leading run-scorer for a team or for the match.
Nicholas Pooran and Haris Rauf lead our watchlist.
How this market worksPrices move ball by ball with wickets, weather and session results.
Rain delays reset the draw price first, so check the covers.
How this market worksBetting tips
Practical points to check before you act. None of these is a guarantee.
Read the surface before the toss
Brian Lara Stadium is tagged dry / turning. Expect the pitch to slow, so runs come harder later in the match.
Wait for the toss
The lean is to bat first. If a captain does the opposite, treat it as new information and check the split again before you act.
Watch each session, not just the result
Sessions move prices in a Test. Our projection puts West Indies at 85–102 in Session 1 against Pakistan's 92–110.
Check the team news
Playing XIs are announced close to the toss. A missing key player, such as Nicholas Pooran or Haris Rauf, moves this model by several points.
Set a limit first
Decide what you can afford before the match starts and stop when you reach it. No model, tip or past result guarantees an outcome.
The case for this match
West Indies keep it interesting
Pakistan are ahead at 54%, but West Indies have enough in their batting depth to make the market move quickly.
Match 2 of 3 in the Pakistan tour of West Indies
Series context shapes selection and tactics. Results earlier in the series give a clearer read on form and combinations.
Dry / turning conditions add an edge
On a dry / turning surface the middle overs tend to carry the most information, so live markets can move quickly.
Depth of markets
A Test at Brian Lara Stadium normally carries match odds, toss, session runs and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.
For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.
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Keep exploring
Answers
Our model gives West Indies 32%, Pakistan 54% and the draw 14%. Pakistan are the clear favourite, but this is a Test and results can change quickly with weather and sessions. It is an indicative estimate, not advice.
Brian Lara Stadium is a slow, low surface where spin and cutters are hard to get away. We tag it dry / turning with a scoring index of 3 out of 5. Setting a target tends to pay, because the pitch is expected to get harder to bat on.
Our model projects West Indies at 269–328 and Pakistan at 291–354 for the day-one score after 90 overs. Treat these as ranges, not promises.
The lean is to bat first. Batting first gets runs on the board before the surface wears and turns in the fourth innings.
It is listed for Tuesday 28 July 2026, with a scheduled start of 19:30 IST, at Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba. Cricket schedules in our source list a date window for each series, so this day is a planning date. Confirm the exact day with the host board before you plan around it.
Our watchlist has Nicholas Pooran (West Indies, top-order stability), Rovman Powell (West Indies, top-order firepower), Haris Rauf (Pakistan, death-overs specialist), Usama Mir (Pakistan, turn on this surface). These are reference names and not confirmed selections. The playing XI is announced close to the toss.
West Indies play at home, which our model counts as a small edge because they know the surface and conditions.
A Test can last up to five days with two innings each, so a draw is a real result and sessions matter.
No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.
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Ask on WhatsAppPercentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.
