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Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.

Tennis · ATP · Quarter-finalsATP 250indoor hard courtProjected pairing

Daniil Medvedev vs Jack DraperOpen Sud de France ATP Quarter-finals: prediction, predicted score & key players

Daniil Medvedev

Win probability

65%

vs

Jack Draper

Win probability

35%

Medvedev 65%35% Draper
Predicted score
6–3, 6–4

2–0

Start
Order of play TBC
Venue
Montpellier
Format
Best of 3

indoor hard court

Feb 202604WedQuarter-finals

Open Sud de France ATP Quarter-finals on 4 Feb 2026: our projection has Daniil Medvedev vs Jack Draper, with Daniil Medvedev the 65% favourite and a predicted score of 6–3, 6–4.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Daniil Medvedev is the projected favourite at 65% over Jack Draper (35%) in the Open Sud de France ATP Quarter-finals. It is a clear lean, not a lock.

Lean: Daniil MedvedevCourt: indoor hard courtFormat: best of 3Tie-break: 41%

The Open Sud de France ATP (ATP 250) reaches the Quarter-finals on Wednesday 4 February 2026 at Arena Sud de France. An indoor hard-court event in the south of France that fills the early-February slot.

Our projection has Daniil Medvedev vs Jack Draper as the headline match of the Quarter-finals. It comes from a projected bracket built on our reference player pool, not from the official draw, so the confirmed pairing can differ. Eight are left in the event, and the four winners go through to the semi-finals.

Daniil Medvedev is a flat, deep-standing counter-puncher with unorthodox patterns. Jack Draper is a left-hander with a heavy forehand and a big serve. On fast indoor hard court, our model leans Daniil Medvedev, mainly through return.

Match ticket

Match details

Date
Wednesday 4 February 2026
Tournament
Open Sud de France ATP
Round
Quarter-finals
Category
ATP 250
Venue
Montpellier, France
Main court
Arena Sud de France, Montpellier
Surface
indoor hard court (fast pace)
Format
Singles, best of three sets
Ranking points
250 ranking points
Tour
ATP tour
Projected pairing
Daniil Medvedev vs Jack Draper (projection, not the official draw)

Pairings are projected. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Projected line-up

Open Sud de France ATP Quarter-finals predictions

Projected quarter-finals pairings from our bracket model, with the headline match first. Percentages are for the first-named player.

  1. Daniil MedvedevRUSGBRJack Draper
    65%35%
  2. Taylor FritzUSAGREStefanos Tsitsipas
    69%31%
  3. Alex de MinaurAUSCZEJiri Lehecka
    55%45%
  4. Ugo HumbertFRAITALorenzo Musetti
    51%49%

Projected title favourite for this event: Alex de Minaur.

These pairings are projections from our reference player pool, not the official draw.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

We compare Daniil Medvedev and Jack Draper on four factors: fit for indoor hard court, serve, return and recent form. The combined lean is Daniil Medvedev at 65%.

Model lean

Daniil Medvedev

65% to win · 30-point gap

Medvedev 65%35% Draper

Daniil Medvedev is the clear pick because of a clear edge in return. Jack Draper keeps a 35% chance, mostly through serve and match-day variance.

Projected pairing: this comes from our reference player pool, so treat it as the shape of the round, not a confirmed order of play. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Fast indoor hard court conditions reward big servers and short points, which narrows the gap between the two players' styles.

Daniil MedvedevJack Draper
  • 57Surface fitRated on indoor hard court43
  • 43ServeFirst-serve weapon and hold games57
  • 72ReturnBreak-point pressure28
  • 57Recent formLevel over recent events43

Impact names

Key players to watch

Four names our model expects to matter in this round on indoor hard court: the two headline players and the next-best names from the projected bracket.

  • Russia

    ATP

    Daniil Medvedev

    Counter-punch · Return

    Impact72%

  • Great Britain

    ATP

    Jack Draper

    Lefty · Forehand

    Impact68%

  • United States

    ATP

    Taylor Fritz

    Big serve · Forehand

    Impact71%

  • Australia

    ATP

    Alex de Minaur

    Speed · Counter-punch

    Impact67%

Names, countries and playing styles are real. Impact scores are a model reference. They are not a confirmed draw or line-up, so check the official order of play close to the match.

Scoreboard model

Predicted score & set markets

Daniil Medvedev is projected to beat Jack Draper 2–0, 6–3, 6–4. The next table shows how the set and games markets line up around that call.

Predicted score

6–3, 6–4

Daniil Medvedev to beat Jack Draper in 2–0

Every figure is an indicative model, not a live price. Sets and games are derived from a best of three sets format on indoor hard court.

Set score probability

  • Medvedev 2–036.2%
  • Medvedev 2–128.8%
  • Draper 2–119.1%
  • Draper 2–015.9%

  • Total games

    21–27

    Line 24.5. Average 24.3 games.

  • Tie-break

    41%

    About 19% per set.

  • Total aces

    15–23

    Medvedev ~9, Draper ~10.

  • Match length

    1h 36m–2h 02m

    About 2.5 sets expected.

Model lean for each tennis market
MarketModel leanWhy
Match winnerDaniil Medvedev 65%clear lean over Jack Draper (35%).
Set bettingDaniil Medvedev 2–02–0 for Medvedev carries 36%. A deciding set is 48%.
Total gamesUnder 24.5Model average is 24.3 games, in a range of 21–27.
Games handicapMedvedev −2.5Medvedev is projected to win by about 3 more games than Draper.
Tie-break in matchNo 59%About 19% per set on indoor hard court.
First set winnerMedvedev 59%Draper takes at least one set 64% of the time.
Total aces15–23Medvedev about 9, Draper about 10.
Match length1h 36m–2h 02mBased on 2.5 sets at indoor hard court pace.

Popular tennis betting markets

The markets followers look at most for this match, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.

  • Match winner

    Back the player or nation you expect to win the match, whatever the score.

    Model lean: Daniil Medvedev at 65%.

    How this market works

  • Set betting

    Pick the exact set score of a best of three sets match, such as 2–0.

    Most likely: Medvedev 2–0, then a deciding set at 48%.

    How this market works

  • Total games

    Bet over or under a games line. Close, serve-led matches push the total up.

    Under 24.5 at a 24.3-game average.

    How this market works

  • Games handicap

    Give or take games to level up a mismatch, so the favourite has to win by a margin.

    Medvedev −2.5 sits near the model's margin.

    How this market works

  • Tie-break market

    Predict whether any set reaches 6–6 and needs a tie-break.

    41% for at least one tie-break in the match.

    How this market works

  • Live tennis markets

    Prices move point by point, so first-set and break-of-serve lines can swing quickly.

    Draper steals a set 64% of the time, which is why live lines matter.

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet this match?

  • A clear storyline

    Daniil Medvedev carry a clear lean, so the interest is in the score and games markets, where the favourite still has to convert.

  • The court shapes the markets

    Fast indoor hard court. It moves the total games line and the tie-break chance (41%), so surface reading is part of the edge.

  • Depth of markets

    Winner, set score, total games, handicap, tie-break, aces and first-set lines all exist for a ATP 250 quarter-finals, so you can pick the one that matches what you actually think.

  • Live pricing

    A best of three sets match has many turning points. Break points and set momentum move live prices, and our model shows a 64% chance the underdog takes a set.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Fixture guide

About Open Sud de France ATP Quarter-finals

The Open Sud de France ATP is a ATP 250 event, worth 250 ranking points to the champion. An indoor hard-court event in the south of France that fills the early-February slot.

The Quarter-finals is played on indoor hard court at Arena Sud de France, Montpellier. Players start with the opening fixture listed, and the Semi-finals follows on 6 Feb 2026.

Our schedule lists 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 4 Feb 2026, Semi-finals on 6 Feb 2026, Final on 8 Feb 2026. Order of play is published by the tournament the day before and can change with weather.

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All tennis fixturesSee the full Open Sud de France (ATP) table

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Answers

Questions about Medvedev vs Draper

  1. The Quarter-finals is listed for Wednesday 4 February 2026. Our schedule shows 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 4 Feb 2026, Semi-finals on 6 Feb 2026, Final on 8 Feb 2026.

  2. Our model leans Daniil Medvedev at 65%, with Jack Draper at 35%. This is a projection built on a reference player pool, not the official draw, and it is not a guarantee of the result.

  3. Daniil Medvedev is projected to win 2–0, 6–3, 6–4. Straight sets carry 52% and a deciding set 48%.

  4. The Quarter-finals is held in Montpellier, France, with the main court at Arena Sud de France, Montpellier. The surface is indoor hard court, which plays fast, so servers get more free points.

  5. Singles matches are best of three sets. Eight are left in the event, and the four winners go through to the semi-finals.

  6. No. Pairings are set by the official draw, which is not part of our schedule data. We show a projected pairing from our reference player pool so you can see the shape of the round. Check the tournament's order of play for the confirmed match.

  7. Daniil Medvedev (RUS), Jack Draper (GBR), Taylor Fritz (USA), Alex de Minaur (AUS). These are reference names from our model and not confirmed line-ups.

  8. Common markets are match winner, set betting, total games, games handicap, tie-break, first-set winner and total aces. Prices move live, and our figures here are model references only.

  9. The champion earns 250 ranking points. The Quarter-finals winner moves a step closer to that total.

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Pairings are a projection from our reference player pool and are not the official draw. Percentages, projected scores and impact figures are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the tournament. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

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