AI overview · What this page shows
Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.
West Indies
Projected
267–310
New Zealand
Projected
295–344
West Indies vs New Zealand (5th ODI) at Kensington Oval on 21 Jul 2026: our model leans New Zealand at 80% on a pace & bounce surface, with a projected first-innings total of 295–344.
At a glance
AI overview
New Zealand get the nod at 80% in this 5th ODI, with West Indies at 20%. It is a strong lean, not a lock.
The New Zealand tour of West Indies, 2026 reaches match 5 of 5 when West Indies face New Zealand in a ODI at Kensington Oval. It is listed for Tuesday 21 July 2026, with the start at 19:30 IST. West Indies have home conditions on their side, which our model counts as a small edge.
Both sides lean on their pace attack, so the contest is likely to be decided by whoever handles the new ball better. Kensington Oval is a quick, bouncy ground where the pace bowlers get carry and the batters get value, so we expect a pace & bounce surface with a first-innings score around 295–344 for New Zealand and 267–310 for West Indies.
Rain is a real risk at this time of year, so watch the forecast and the covers around the toss. The toss lean is to bowl first. Early movement makes bowling first attractive while the surface still has life.
Match ticket
Cricket dates follow each series window, so confirm the exact day with the host board.
Win probability
West Indies 20%, New Zealand 80%. It is a strong lean, and the toss and the first powerplay can move it.
Model lean
New Zealand
80% to win · 60-point gap
The split comes from batting, pace and spin ratings for both teams, adjusted for Kensington Oval and West Indies's home conditions. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.
On a pace & bounce surface, New Zealand's pace group gets the extra weight in the model.
The toss can shift this by a few points either way, so check the split again once the captains have spoken.
Impact names
Four names our model expects to move this match on pace & bounce conditions.
West Indies
Fast bowler
Alzarri Joseph
New-ball burst
West Indies
Wicketkeeper
Nicholas Pooran
Gloveman with power
New Zealand
Fast bowler
Trent Boult
Swing threat
New Zealand
All-rounder
Daryl Mitchell
Two-way match-winner
These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed selection. Check the official team announcement close to the toss.
Scoreboard model
Projected runs for each phase of the 50-over innings, followed by the cumulative over-by-over curve.
| Phase | West Indies | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| PowerplayOvers 1–10 | 51–58 | 56–65 |
| Middle oversOvers 11–40 | 140–161 | 155–178 |
| Death oversOvers 41–50 | 76–91 | 84–101 |
| First innings | 267–310 | 295–344 |
Overs bowled
After 10 overs
WI 55NZ 60
After 40 overs
WI 205NZ 227
After 50 overs
WI 289NZ 320
Ranges cover roughly a normal spread of outcomes for Kensington Oval. A collapse or a big partnership can sit well outside them.
Team details
Both sides lean on their pace attack, so the contest is likely to be decided by whoever handles the new ball better.
West Indies come in with big-hitting depth in white-ball cricket and raw pace that can win a session on its own. In this ODI, their pace attack is their strongest suit.
Kensington Oval is a fair test rather than an obvious fit. Familiar home conditions help their planning. Their key question is how they handle New Zealand's pace attack.
New Zealand come in with disciplined seam bowling, sharp fielding and a batting order that rarely panics. In this ODI, their pace attack is their strongest suit.
Kensington Oval suits their pace group. Their key question is how they handle West Indies's pace attack.
Kensington Oval is a quick, bouncy ground where the pace bowlers get carry and the batters get value. Our surface tag for this match is pace & bounce, with a scoring index of 4 out of 5.
Sides that bowl first tend to get the best of the conditions.
Rain is a real risk at this time of year, so watch the forecast and the covers around the toss.
Venue: Kensington Oval, Bridgetown. Surface tags are editorial estimates and can change on the day.
Market guide
The markets most followers look at for West Indies vs New Zealand, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.
A straight pick on which team wins. In limited-overs cricket there are two outcomes, plus a tie or no result.
Model split: West Indies 20%, New Zealand 80%.
How this market worksA market on the coin toss that settles before play starts.
Toss lean is to bowl first on this surface.
How this market worksA session-style line on how many runs a side scores in the first 10 overs.
West Indies 51–58, New Zealand 56–65.
How this market worksOver-or-under lines on a side's final first-innings score.
West Indies 267–310, New Zealand 295–344.
How this market worksPicks the leading run-scorer or wicket-taker for a team or the match.
Alzarri Joseph and Nicholas Pooran are on our watchlist for West Indies.
How this market worksPrices move ball by ball with wickets, run rate and required rate.
West Indies usually see the biggest swing if they take early wickets.
How this market worksBetting tips
Practical points to check before you act. None of these is a guarantee.
Read the surface before the toss
Kensington Oval is tagged pace & bounce. Early movement usually favours the bowlers, so expect early wickets.
Wait for the toss
The lean is to bowl first. If a captain does the opposite, treat it as new information and check the split again before you act.
Trade the powerplay and the death overs separately
Our projection puts the powerplay at 51–58 for West Indies and 56–65 for New Zealand, and the death overs at 76–91 and 84–101.
Check the team news
Playing XIs are announced close to the toss. A missing key player, such as Alzarri Joseph or Trent Boult, moves this model by several points.
Set a limit first
Decide what you can afford before the match starts and stop when you reach it. No model, tip or past result guarantees an outcome.
The case for this match
West Indies keep it interesting
New Zealand are ahead at 80%, but West Indies have enough in their pace attack to make the market move quickly.
Match 5 of 5 in the New Zealand tour of West Indies
Series context shapes selection and tactics. A series decider raises the stakes for both sides.
Pace & bounce conditions add an edge
On a pace & bounce surface the early overs tend to carry the most information, so live markets can move quickly.
Depth of markets
A ODI at Kensington Oval normally carries match odds, toss, session runs and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.
For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.
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Keep exploring
Answers
Our model leans New Zealand at 80% against West Indies at 20%, a strong lean. It is based on team ratings and conditions at Kensington Oval, and it is not a guarantee.
Kensington Oval is a quick, bouncy ground where the pace bowlers get carry and the batters get value. We tag it pace & bounce with a scoring index of 4 out of 5. Sides that bowl first tend to get the best of the conditions.
Our model projects West Indies at 267–310 and New Zealand at 295–344 for the first-innings total. Treat these as ranges, not promises.
The lean is to bowl first. Early movement makes bowling first attractive while the surface still has life.
It is listed for Tuesday 21 July 2026, with a scheduled start of 19:30 IST, at Kensington Oval, Bridgetown. Cricket schedules in our source list a date window for each series, so this day is a planning date. Confirm the exact day with the host board before you plan around it.
Our watchlist has Alzarri Joseph (West Indies, new-ball burst), Nicholas Pooran (West Indies, gloveman with power), Trent Boult (New Zealand, swing threat), Daryl Mitchell (New Zealand, two-way match-winner). These are reference names and not confirmed selections. The playing XI is announced close to the toss.
West Indies play at home, which our model counts as a small edge because they know the surface and conditions.
An ODI gives each side 50 overs. The middle overs shape the platform and the final ten decide close games.
No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.
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Ask on WhatsAppPercentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.
