AI overview · What this page shows
Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.
Australia
Day-one score
266–325
New Zealand
Day-one score
252–308
Australia vs New Zealand (1st Test) at Perth Stadium on 9 Dec 2026: our model leans Australia at 62% on a pace & bounce surface, with a projected day-one score after 90 overs of 266–325.
At a glance
AI overview
Australia start as the favourite in the 1st Test at Perth Stadium, but 22% of our model's weight sits on a draw, so the first two sessions matter most.
The New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 reaches match 1 of 4 when Australia face New Zealand in a Test at Perth Stadium. It is listed for Wednesday 9 December 2026, with the start at 19:30 IST. Australia have home conditions on their side, which our model counts as a small edge.
Both sides lean on their pace attack, so the contest is likely to be decided by whoever handles the new ball better. Perth Stadium is the quickest, bounciest surface in the country, where carry beats the bat, so we expect a pace & bounce surface with a first-day score around 266–325 for Australia and 252–308 for New Zealand.
Summer heat dries the surface, so bounce holds up and the outfield stays quick. Because a draw is a live result here (22%), watch how much time is lost before you read anything into a single session.
Match ticket
Cricket dates follow each series window, so confirm the exact day with the host board.
Win probability
Australia 62%, draw 22%, New Zealand 16%. A draw carries real weight in a Test, so read the split as three outcomes rather than two.
Model lean
Australia
62% to win · 46-point gap
The split comes from batting, pace and spin ratings for both teams, adjusted for Perth Stadium and Australia's home conditions. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.
On a pace & bounce surface, Australia's pace group gets the extra weight in the model.
Rain and bad light matter more in a longer match, so the draw figure moves first when the forecast changes.
Impact names
Four names our model expects to move this match on pace & bounce conditions.
Australia
Fast bowler
Mitchell Starc
New-ball burst
Australia
All-rounder
Glenn Maxwell
Balance of the XI
New Zealand
Fast bowler
Tim Southee
Powerplay wickets
New Zealand
All-rounder
Rachin Ravindra
Balance of the XI
These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed selection. Check the official team announcement close to the toss.
Scoreboard model
Projected day-one score by session for each side, followed by the cumulative curve across 90 overs.
| Session | Australia | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| Session 1Overs 1–30 | 84–101 | 80–96 |
| Session 2Overs 31–60 | 93–112 | 88–106 |
| Session 3Overs 61–90 | 89–112 | 84–106 |
| Day one, 90 overs | 266–325 | 252–308 |
Overs bowled
After 30 overs
AUS 93NZ 88
After 60 overs
AUS 196NZ 185
After 90 overs
AUS 296NZ 280
Sessions are modelled at 30 overs each, and the totals are for the first 90 overs of a first innings.
Team details
Both sides lean on their pace attack, so the contest is likely to be decided by whoever handles the new ball better.
Australia come in with a high-class pace unit and top-order batters who score quickly on bouncy surfaces. In this Test, their pace attack is their strongest suit.
Perth Stadium suits their pace group. Familiar home conditions help their planning. Their key question is how they handle New Zealand's pace attack.
New Zealand come in with disciplined seam bowling, sharp fielding and a batting order that rarely panics. In this Test, their pace attack is their strongest suit.
Perth Stadium suits their pace group. Their key question is how they handle Australia's pace attack.
Perth Stadium is the quickest, bounciest surface in the country, where carry beats the bat. Our surface tag for this match is pace & bounce, with a scoring index of 3 out of 5.
Bowling first is usually favoured while there is still moisture and movement on offer.
Summer heat dries the surface, so bounce holds up and the outfield stays quick.
Venue: Perth Stadium, Perth. Surface tags are editorial estimates and can change on the day.
Market guide
The markets most followers look at for Australia vs New Zealand, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.
Backs a team to win, or the draw. Unlike limited-overs cricket the market has three outcomes.
Model split: Australia 62%, draw 22%, New Zealand 16%.
How this market worksA separate market on who wins the coin toss. It settles before the first ball.
Toss lean is to bowl first, so watch which captain has to choose.
How this market worksLines on how many runs a side scores in a session, or in a fixed number of overs.
Session 1: Australia 84–101, New Zealand 80–96.
How this market worksBets on which side leads after both first innings, or by how many runs.
Day-one projection: Australia 266–325, New Zealand 252–308.
How this market worksPicks the leading run-scorer for a team or for the match.
Mitchell Starc and Tim Southee lead our watchlist.
How this market worksPrices move ball by ball with wickets, weather and session results.
Rain delays reset the draw price first, so check the covers.
How this market worksBetting tips
Practical points to check before you act. None of these is a guarantee.
Read the surface before the toss
Perth Stadium is tagged pace & bounce. Early movement usually favours the bowlers, so expect early wickets.
Wait for the toss
The lean is to bowl first. If a captain does the opposite, treat it as new information and check the split again before you act.
Watch each session, not just the result
Sessions move prices in a Test. Our projection puts Australia at 84–101 in Session 1 against New Zealand's 80–96.
Check the team news
Playing XIs are announced close to the toss. A missing key player, such as Mitchell Starc or Tim Southee, moves this model by several points.
Set a limit first
Decide what you can afford before the match starts and stop when you reach it. No model, tip or past result guarantees an outcome.
The case for this match
New Zealand keep it interesting
Australia are ahead at 62%, but New Zealand have enough in their pace attack to make the market move quickly.
Match 1 of 4 in the New Zealand tour of Australia
Series context shapes selection and tactics. Opening matches set the tone, and prices are often wider before form is clear.
Pace & bounce conditions add an edge
On a pace & bounce surface the early overs tend to carry the most information, so live markets can move quickly.
Depth of markets
A Test at Perth Stadium normally carries match odds, toss, session runs and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.
For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.
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Keep exploring
Answers
Our model gives Australia 62%, New Zealand 16% and the draw 22%. Australia are the strong favourite, but this is a Test and results can change quickly with weather and sessions. It is an indicative estimate, not advice.
Perth Stadium is the quickest, bounciest surface in the country, where carry beats the bat. We tag it pace & bounce with a scoring index of 3 out of 5. Bowling first is usually favoured while there is still moisture and movement on offer.
Our model projects Australia at 266–325 and New Zealand at 252–308 for the day-one score after 90 overs. Treat these as ranges, not promises.
The lean is to bowl first. Moisture and bounce on day one usually make the first session the best time to bowl.
It is listed for Wednesday 9 December 2026, with a scheduled start of 19:30 IST, at Perth Stadium, Perth. Cricket schedules in our source list a date window for each series, so this day is a planning date. Confirm the exact day with the host board before you plan around it.
Our watchlist has Mitchell Starc (Australia, new-ball burst), Glenn Maxwell (Australia, balance of the xi), Tim Southee (New Zealand, powerplay wickets), Rachin Ravindra (New Zealand, balance of the xi). These are reference names and not confirmed selections. The playing XI is announced close to the toss.
Australia play at home, which our model counts as a small edge because they know the surface and conditions.
A Test can last up to five days with two innings each, so a draw is a real result and sessions matter.
No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.
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Ask on WhatsAppPercentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.
