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Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.

Tennis · WTA · Semi-finalsWTA 500hard courtProjected pairing

Coco Gauff vs Elena RybakinaMubadala Citi DC Open WTA Semi-finals: prediction, predicted score & key players

Coco Gauff

Win probability

60%

vs

Elena Rybakina

Win probability

40%

Gauff 60%40% Rybakina
Predicted score
6–4, 7–5

2–0

Start
Order of play TBC
Venue
Washington
Format
Best of 3

hard court

Jul 202631FriSemi-finals

Mubadala Citi DC Open WTA Semi-finals on 31 Jul 2026: our projection has Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina, with Coco Gauff the 60% favourite and a predicted score of 6–4, 7–5.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Coco Gauff is the projected favourite at 60% over Elena Rybakina (40%) in the Mubadala Citi DC Open WTA Semi-finals. It is a modest lean, not a lock.

Lean: Coco GauffCourt: hard courtFormat: best of 3Tie-break: 39%

On Friday 31 July 2026 the Mubadala Citi DC Open WTA (WTA 500) plays its Semi-finals in Washington. A summer WTA 500 in Washington played on outdoor hard courts.

Our projection has Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina as the headline match of the Semi-finals. It comes from a projected bracket built on our reference player pool, not from the official draw, so the confirmed pairing can differ. Four are left, and the two winners meet in the final.

Coco Gauff is an athletic defender with a big serve and a growing attacking game. Elena Rybakina is a big flat server with clean ball-striking that suits faster courts. On medium-pace hard court, our model leans Coco Gauff, mainly through return.

Match ticket

Match details

Date
Friday 31 July 2026
Tournament
Mubadala Citi DC Open WTA
Round
Semi-finals
Category
WTA 500
Venue
Washington, USA
Main court
Rock Creek Park Tennis Center, Washington
Surface
hard court (medium pace)
Format
Singles, best of three sets
Ranking points
500 ranking points
Tour
WTA tour
Projected pairing
Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina (projection, not the official draw)

Pairings are projected. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Projected line-up

Mubadala Citi DC Open WTA Semi-finals predictions

Projected semi-finals pairings from our bracket model, with the headline match first. Percentages are for the first-named player.

  1. Coco GauffUSAKAZElena Rybakina
    60%40%
  2. Aryna SabalenkaBLRCHNQinwen Zheng
    83%17%

Projected title favourite for this event: Aryna Sabalenka.

These pairings are projections from our reference player pool, not the official draw.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

We compare Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina on four factors: fit for hard court, serve, return and recent form. The combined lean is Coco Gauff at 60%.

Model lean

Coco Gauff

60% to win · 20-point gap

Gauff 60%40% Rybakina

Coco Gauff is the modest pick because of a clear edge in return. Elena Rybakina keeps a 40% chance, mostly through serve and match-day variance.

Projected pairing: this comes from our reference player pool, so treat it as the shape of the round, not a confirmed order of play. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Medium-pace hard court conditions sit between serve-led and baseline styles, which widens the gap between the two players' styles.

Coco GauffElena Rybakina
  • 54Surface fitRated on hard court46
  • 27ServeFirst-serve weapon and hold games73
  • 64ReturnBreak-point pressure36
  • 57Recent formLevel over recent events43

Impact names

Key players to watch

Four names our model expects to matter in this round on hard court: the two headline players and the next-best names from the projected bracket.

  • United States

    WTA

    Coco Gauff

    Defence · Athletic

    Impact77%

  • Kazakhstan

    WTA

    Elena Rybakina

    Big serve · Grass

    Impact75%

  • Belarus

    WTA

    Aryna Sabalenka

    Power · Big serve

    Impact82%

  • United States

    WTA

    Amanda Anisimova

    Ball-striker · Return

    Impact77%

Names, countries and playing styles are real. Impact scores are a model reference. They are not a confirmed draw or line-up, so check the official order of play close to the match.

Scoreboard model

Predicted score & set markets

Coco Gauff is projected to beat Elena Rybakina 2–0, 6–4, 7–5. The next table shows how the set and games markets line up around that call.

Predicted score

6–4, 7–5

Coco Gauff to beat Elena Rybakina in 2–0

Every figure is an indicative model, not a live price. Sets and games are derived from a best of three sets format on hard court.

Set score probability

  • Gauff 2–032.2%
  • Gauff 2–127.8%
  • Rybakina 2–121.3%
  • Rybakina 2–018.7%

  • Total games

    21–27

    Line 24.5. Average 24.2 games.

  • Tie-break

    39%

    About 18% per set.

  • Total aces

    14–20

    Gauff ~7, Rybakina ~10.

  • Match length

    1h 41m–2h 09m

    About 2.5 sets expected.

Model lean for each tennis market
MarketModel leanWhy
Match winnerCoco Gauff 60%modest lean over Elena Rybakina (40%).
Set bettingCoco Gauff 2–02–0 for Gauff carries 32%. A deciding set is 49%.
Total gamesUnder 24.5Model average is 24.2 games, in a range of 21–27.
Games handicapGauff −1.5Gauff is projected to win by about 2 more games than Rybakina.
Tie-break in matchNo 61%About 18% per set on hard court.
First set winnerGauff 56%Rybakina takes at least one set 68% of the time.
Total aces14–20Gauff about 7, Rybakina about 10.
Match length1h 41m–2h 09mBased on 2.5 sets at hard court pace.

Popular tennis betting markets

The markets followers look at most for this match, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.

  • Match winner

    Back the player or nation you expect to win the match, whatever the score.

    Model lean: Coco Gauff at 60%.

    How this market works

  • Set betting

    Pick the exact set score of a best of three sets match, such as 2–0.

    Most likely: Gauff 2–0, then a deciding set at 49%.

    How this market works

  • Total games

    Bet over or under a games line. Close, serve-led matches push the total up.

    Under 24.5 at a 24.2-game average.

    How this market works

  • Games handicap

    Give or take games to level up a mismatch, so the favourite has to win by a margin.

    Gauff −1.5 sits near the model's margin.

    How this market works

  • Tie-break market

    Predict whether any set reaches 6–6 and needs a tie-break.

    39% for at least one tie-break in the match.

    How this market works

  • Live tennis markets

    Prices move point by point, so first-set and break-of-serve lines can swing quickly.

    Rybakina steals a set 68% of the time, which is why live lines matter.

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet this match?

  • A live contest, not a formality

    Our lean is modest, so the market has two credible outcomes and the price for Elena Rybakina is worth watching.

  • The court shapes the markets

    Medium-pace hard court. It moves the total games line and the tie-break chance (39%), so surface reading is part of the edge.

  • Depth of markets

    Winner, set score, total games, handicap, tie-break, aces and first-set lines all exist for a WTA 500 semi-finals, so you can pick the one that matches what you actually think.

  • Live pricing

    A best of three sets match has many turning points. Break points and set momentum move live prices, and our model shows a 68% chance the underdog takes a set.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Fixture guide

About Mubadala Citi DC Open WTA Semi-finals

The Mubadala Citi DC Open WTA is a WTA 500 event, worth 500 ranking points to the champion. A summer WTA 500 in Washington played on outdoor hard courts.

The Semi-finals is played on hard court at Rock Creek Park Tennis Center, Washington. Players arrive after the Quarter-finals on 29 Jul 2026, and the Final follows on 2 Aug 2026.

Our schedule lists 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 29 Jul 2026, Semi-finals on 31 Jul 2026, Final on 2 Aug 2026. Order of play is published by the tournament the day before and can change with weather.

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Answers

Questions about Gauff vs Rybakina

  1. The Semi-finals is listed for Friday 31 July 2026. Our schedule shows 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 29 Jul 2026, Semi-finals on 31 Jul 2026, Final on 2 Aug 2026.

  2. Our model leans Coco Gauff at 60%, with Elena Rybakina at 40%. This is a projection built on a reference player pool, not the official draw, and it is not a guarantee of the result.

  3. Coco Gauff is projected to win 2–0, 6–4, 7–5. Straight sets carry 51% and a deciding set 49%.

  4. The Semi-finals is held in Washington, USA, with the main court at Rock Creek Park Tennis Center, Washington. The surface is hard court, which plays at a medium pace.

  5. Singles matches are best of three sets. Four are left, and the two winners meet in the final.

  6. No. Pairings are set by the official draw, which is not part of our schedule data. We show a projected pairing from our reference player pool so you can see the shape of the round. Check the tournament's order of play for the confirmed match.

  7. Coco Gauff (USA), Elena Rybakina (KAZ), Aryna Sabalenka (BLR), Amanda Anisimova (USA). These are reference names from our model and not confirmed line-ups.

  8. Common markets are match winner, set betting, total games, games handicap, tie-break, first-set winner and total aces. Prices move live, and our figures here are model references only.

  9. The champion earns 500 ranking points. The Semi-finals winner moves a step closer to that total.

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Pairings are a projection from our reference player pool and are not the official draw. Percentages, projected scores and impact figures are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the tournament. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

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