AI overview · What this page shows
Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.
New Zealand
Projected
303–352
India
Projected
322–376
New Zealand vs India (5th ODI) at Bay Oval on 23 Nov 2026: our model leans India at 72% on a flat / batting surface, with a projected first-innings total of 322–376.
At a glance
AI overview
India get the nod at 72% in this 5th ODI, with New Zealand at 28%. It is a strong lean, not a lock.
New Zealand meet India for match 10 of 12 in the India tour of New Zealand, 2026, a ODI at Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui. It is listed for Monday 23 November 2026, with the start at 19:30 IST. New Zealand have home conditions on their side, which our model counts as a small edge.
Both sides lean on their batting depth, so the contest is likely to be decided by whoever handles the big overs better. Bay Oval is a true batting surface with quick scoring in the powerplay, so we expect a flat / batting surface with a first-innings score around 322–376 for India and 303–352 for New Zealand.
Changeable weather is normal, and a cool, overcast morning suits the seamers. The toss lean is to bowl first. Most captains chase on a true surface because they can pace the innings to a target.
Match ticket
Cricket dates follow each series window, so confirm the exact day with the host board.
Win probability
New Zealand 28%, India 72%. The strong gap leaves room for an upset.
Model lean
India
72% to win · 44-point gap
The split comes from batting, pace and spin ratings for both teams, adjusted for Bay Oval and New Zealand's home conditions. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.
On a true surface, India's batting depth gets the extra weight in the model.
The toss can shift this by a few points either way, so check the split again once the captains have spoken.
Impact names
Four names our model expects to move this match on flat / batting conditions.
New Zealand
Batter
Kane Williamson
Boundary-hitter on a true pitch
New Zealand
All-rounder
Daryl Mitchell
Balance of the XI
India
Batter
Rohit Sharma
Boundary-hitter on a true pitch
India
Wicketkeeper
KL Rahul
Gloveman with power
These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed selection. Check the official team announcement close to the toss.
Scoreboard model
Projected runs for each phase of the 50-over innings, followed by the cumulative over-by-over curve.
| Phase | New Zealand | India |
|---|---|---|
| PowerplayOvers 1–10 | 58–66 | 61–71 |
| Middle oversOvers 11–40 | 159–183 | 169–195 |
| Death oversOvers 41–50 | 86–103 | 92–110 |
| First innings | 303–352 | 322–376 |
Overs bowled
After 10 overs
NZ 62IND 66
After 40 overs
NZ 233IND 248
After 50 overs
NZ 327IND 349
Ranges cover roughly a normal spread of outcomes for Bay Oval. A collapse or a big partnership can sit well outside them.
Team details
Both sides lean on their batting depth, so the contest is likely to be decided by whoever handles the big overs better.
New Zealand come in with disciplined seam bowling, sharp fielding and a batting order that rarely panics. In this ODI, their batting depth is their strongest suit.
Bay Oval is a fair test rather than an obvious fit. Familiar home conditions help their planning. Their key question is how they handle India's batting depth.
India come in with a deep batting order, high-quality spin and a pace attack that peaks with the new ball. In this ODI, their batting depth is their strongest suit.
Bay Oval suits their batters. Their key question is how they handle New Zealand's batting depth.
Bay Oval is a true batting surface with quick scoring in the powerplay. Our surface tag for this match is flat / batting, with a scoring index of 4 out of 5.
A true surface lets either side control the game, so the toss matters less.
Changeable weather is normal, and a cool, overcast morning suits the seamers.
Venue: Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui. Surface tags are editorial estimates and can change on the day.
Market guide
The markets most followers look at for New Zealand vs India, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.
A straight pick on which team wins. In limited-overs cricket there are two outcomes, plus a tie or no result.
Model split: New Zealand 28%, India 72%.
How this market worksA market on the coin toss that settles before play starts.
Toss lean is to bowl first on this surface.
How this market worksA session-style line on how many runs a side scores in the first 10 overs.
New Zealand 58–66, India 61–71.
How this market worksOver-or-under lines on a side's final first-innings score.
New Zealand 303–352, India 322–376.
How this market worksPicks the leading run-scorer or wicket-taker for a team or the match.
Kane Williamson and Daryl Mitchell are on our watchlist for New Zealand.
How this market worksPrices move ball by ball with wickets, run rate and required rate.
New Zealand usually see the biggest swing if they take early wickets.
How this market worksBetting tips
Practical points to check before you act. None of these is a guarantee.
Read the surface before the toss
Bay Oval is tagged flat / batting. Expect scores at or above the ground average once batters are set.
Wait for the toss
The lean is to bowl first. If a captain does the opposite, treat it as new information and check the split again before you act.
Trade the powerplay and the death overs separately
Our projection puts the powerplay at 58–66 for New Zealand and 61–71 for India, and the death overs at 86–103 and 92–110.
Check the team news
Playing XIs are announced close to the toss. A missing key player, such as Kane Williamson or Rohit Sharma, moves this model by several points.
Set a limit first
Decide what you can afford before the match starts and stop when you reach it. No model, tip or past result guarantees an outcome.
The case for this match
New Zealand keep it interesting
India are ahead at 72%, but New Zealand have enough in their batting depth to make the market move quickly.
Match 10 of 12 in the India tour of New Zealand
Series context shapes selection and tactics. Results earlier in the series give a clearer read on form and combinations.
Flat / batting conditions add an edge
On a flat / batting surface the big overs tend to carry the most information, so live markets can move quickly.
Depth of markets
A ODI at Bay Oval normally carries match odds, toss, session runs and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.
For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.
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Keep exploring
Answers
Our model leans India at 72% against New Zealand at 28%, a strong lean. It is based on team ratings and conditions at Bay Oval, and it is not a guarantee.
Bay Oval is a true batting surface with quick scoring in the powerplay. We tag it flat / batting with a scoring index of 4 out of 5. A true surface lets either side control the game, so the toss matters less.
Our model projects New Zealand at 303–352 and India at 322–376 for the first-innings total. Treat these as ranges, not promises.
The lean is to bowl first. Most captains chase on a true surface because they can pace the innings to a target.
It is listed for Monday 23 November 2026, with a scheduled start of 19:30 IST, at Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui. Cricket schedules in our source list a date window for each series, so this day is a planning date. Confirm the exact day with the host board before you plan around it.
Our watchlist has Kane Williamson (New Zealand, boundary-hitter on a true pitch), Daryl Mitchell (New Zealand, balance of the xi), Rohit Sharma (India, boundary-hitter on a true pitch), KL Rahul (India, gloveman with power). These are reference names and not confirmed selections. The playing XI is announced close to the toss.
New Zealand play at home, which our model counts as a small edge because they know the surface and conditions.
An ODI gives each side 50 overs. The middle overs shape the platform and the final ten decide close games.
No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.
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Ask on WhatsAppPercentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.
