AI overview · What this page shows
Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.
New Zealand
Day-one score
263–319
India
Day-one score
272–331
New Zealand vs India (1st Test) at Basin Reserve on 26 Nov 2026: our model leans India at 54% on a green / seam surface, with a projected day-one score after 90 overs of 272–331.
At a glance
AI overview
India start as the favourite in the 1st Test at Basin Reserve, but 17% of our model's weight sits on a draw, so the first two sessions matter most.
New Zealand meet India for match 11 of 12 in the India tour of New Zealand, 2026, a Test at Basin Reserve, Wellington. It is listed for Thursday 26 November 2026, with the start at 19:30 IST. New Zealand have home conditions on their side, which our model counts as a small edge.
New Zealand's edge is their pace attack, while India's is their batting depth. The side whose strength suits Basin Reserve gets the first say. Basin Reserve is a famously windy ground with movement through the air for the seamers, so we expect a green / seam surface with a first-day score around 272–331 for India and 263–319 for New Zealand.
Changeable weather is normal, and a cool, overcast morning suits the seamers. Because a draw is a live result here (17%), watch how much time is lost before you read anything into a single session.
Match ticket
Cricket dates follow each series window, so confirm the exact day with the host board.
Win probability
New Zealand 29%, draw 17%, India 54%. A draw carries real weight in a Test, so read the split as three outcomes rather than two.
Model lean
India
54% to win · 25-point gap
The split comes from batting, pace and spin ratings for both teams, adjusted for Basin Reserve and New Zealand's home conditions. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.
On a green / seam surface, India's pace group gets the extra weight in the model.
Rain and bad light matter more in a longer match, so the draw figure moves first when the forecast changes.
Impact names
Four names our model expects to move this match on green / seam conditions.
New Zealand
Fast bowler
Trent Boult
New-ball burst
New Zealand
Wicketkeeper
Devon Conway
Anchor with the gloves
India
Fast bowler
Mohammed Shami
Powerplay wickets
India
All-rounder
Ravindra Jadeja
Balance of the XI
These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed selection. Check the official team announcement close to the toss.
Scoreboard model
Projected day-one score by session for each side, followed by the cumulative curve across 90 overs.
| Session | New Zealand | India |
|---|---|---|
| Session 1Overs 1–30 | 83–99 | 86–103 |
| Session 2Overs 31–60 | 92–110 | 95–114 |
| Session 3Overs 61–90 | 88–110 | 91–114 |
| Day one, 90 overs | 263–319 | 272–331 |
Overs bowled
After 30 overs
NZ 91IND 94
After 60 overs
NZ 192IND 199
After 90 overs
NZ 290IND 301
Sessions are modelled at 30 overs each, and the totals are for the first 90 overs of a first innings.
Team details
New Zealand's edge is their pace attack, while India's is their batting depth. The side whose strength suits Basin Reserve gets the first say.
New Zealand come in with disciplined seam bowling, sharp fielding and a batting order that rarely panics. In this Test, their pace attack is their strongest suit.
Basin Reserve suits their pace group. Familiar home conditions help their planning. Their key question is how they handle India's batting depth.
India come in with a deep batting order, high-quality spin and a pace attack that peaks with the new ball. In this Test, their batting depth is their strongest suit.
Basin Reserve suits their pace group. Their key question is how they handle New Zealand's pace attack.
Basin Reserve is a famously windy ground with movement through the air for the seamers. Our surface tag for this match is green / seam, with a scoring index of 3 out of 5.
Sides that bowl first tend to get the best of the conditions.
Changeable weather is normal, and a cool, overcast morning suits the seamers.
Venue: Basin Reserve, Wellington. Surface tags are editorial estimates and can change on the day.
Market guide
The markets most followers look at for New Zealand vs India, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.
Backs a team to win, or the draw. Unlike limited-overs cricket the market has three outcomes.
Model split: New Zealand 29%, draw 17%, India 54%.
How this market worksA separate market on who wins the coin toss. It settles before the first ball.
Toss lean is to bowl first, so watch which captain has to choose.
How this market worksLines on how many runs a side scores in a session, or in a fixed number of overs.
Session 1: New Zealand 83–99, India 86–103.
How this market worksBets on which side leads after both first innings, or by how many runs.
Day-one projection: New Zealand 263–319, India 272–331.
How this market worksPicks the leading run-scorer for a team or for the match.
Trent Boult and Mohammed Shami lead our watchlist.
How this market worksPrices move ball by ball with wickets, weather and session results.
Rain delays reset the draw price first, so check the covers.
How this market worksBetting tips
Practical points to check before you act. None of these is a guarantee.
Read the surface before the toss
Basin Reserve is tagged green / seam. Early movement usually favours the bowlers, so expect early wickets.
Wait for the toss
The lean is to bowl first. If a captain does the opposite, treat it as new information and check the split again before you act.
Watch each session, not just the result
Sessions move prices in a Test. Our projection puts New Zealand at 83–99 in Session 1 against India's 86–103.
Check the team news
Playing XIs are announced close to the toss. A missing key player, such as Trent Boult or Mohammed Shami, moves this model by several points.
Set a limit first
Decide what you can afford before the match starts and stop when you reach it. No model, tip or past result guarantees an outcome.
The case for this match
New Zealand keep it interesting
India are ahead at 54%, but New Zealand have enough in their pace attack to make the market move quickly.
Match 11 of 12 in the India tour of New Zealand
Series context shapes selection and tactics. Results earlier in the series give a clearer read on form and combinations.
Green / seam conditions add an edge
On a green / seam surface the early overs tend to carry the most information, so live markets can move quickly.
Depth of markets
A Test at Basin Reserve normally carries match odds, toss, session runs and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.
For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.
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Keep exploring
Answers
Our model gives New Zealand 29%, India 54% and the draw 17%. India are the clear favourite, but this is a Test and results can change quickly with weather and sessions. It is an indicative estimate, not advice.
Basin Reserve is a famously windy ground with movement through the air for the seamers. We tag it green / seam with a scoring index of 3 out of 5. Sides that bowl first tend to get the best of the conditions.
Our model projects New Zealand at 263–319 and India at 272–331 for the day-one score after 90 overs. Treat these as ranges, not promises.
The lean is to bowl first. Moisture and bounce on day one usually make the first session the best time to bowl.
It is listed for Thursday 26 November 2026, with a scheduled start of 19:30 IST, at Basin Reserve, Wellington. Cricket schedules in our source list a date window for each series, so this day is a planning date. Confirm the exact day with the host board before you plan around it.
Our watchlist has Trent Boult (New Zealand, new-ball burst), Devon Conway (New Zealand, anchor with the gloves), Mohammed Shami (India, powerplay wickets), Ravindra Jadeja (India, balance of the xi). These are reference names and not confirmed selections. The playing XI is announced close to the toss.
New Zealand play at home, which our model counts as a small edge because they know the surface and conditions.
A Test can last up to five days with two innings each, so a draw is a real result and sessions matter.
No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.
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Ask on WhatsAppPercentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.
