AI overview · What this page shows
Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.
New Zealand
Projected
156–181
India
Projected
169–196
New Zealand vs India (1st T20I) at Hagley Oval on 22 Oct 2026: our model leans India at 62% on a green / seam surface, with a projected first-innings total of 169–196.
At a glance
AI overview
India get the nod at 62% in this 1st T20I, with New Zealand at 38%. It is a clear lean, not a lock.
Hagley Oval hosts New Zealand against India in the 1st T20I, number 1 in a 12-match India tour of New Zealand, 2026. It is listed for Thursday 22 October 2026, with the start at 19:30 IST. New Zealand have home conditions on their side, which our model counts as a small edge.
New Zealand's edge is their pace attack, while India's is their batting depth. The side whose strength suits Hagley Oval gets the first say. Hagley Oval is a ground where seam and swing are on offer and the boundaries are big, so we expect a green / seam surface with a first-innings score around 169–196 for India and 156–181 for New Zealand.
Changeable weather is normal, and a cool, overcast morning suits the seamers. The toss lean is to bowl first. Early movement makes bowling first attractive while the surface still has life.
Match ticket
Cricket dates follow each series window, so confirm the exact day with the host board.
Win probability
New Zealand 38%, India 62%. That is a clear lean rather than a lock.
Model lean
India
62% to win · 24-point gap
The split comes from batting, pace and spin ratings for both teams, adjusted for Hagley Oval and New Zealand's home conditions. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.
On a green / seam surface, India's pace group gets the extra weight in the model.
The toss can shift this by a few points either way, so check the split again once the captains have spoken.
Impact names
Four names our model expects to move this match on green / seam conditions.
New Zealand
Fast bowler
Lockie Ferguson
Swing threat
New Zealand
Wicketkeeper
Devon Conway
Gloveman with power
India
Fast bowler
Mohammed Shami
Powerplay wickets
India
Wicketkeeper
KL Rahul
Gloveman with power
These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed selection. Check the official team announcement close to the toss.
Scoreboard model
Projected runs for each phase of the 20-over innings, followed by the cumulative over-by-over curve.
| Phase | New Zealand | India |
|---|---|---|
| PowerplayOvers 1–6 | 46–53 | 50–57 |
| Middle oversOvers 7–15 | 61–70 | 66–76 |
| Death oversOvers 16–20 | 49–58 | 53–63 |
| First innings | 156–181 | 169–196 |
Overs bowled
After 6 overs
NZ 50IND 54
After 15 overs
NZ 115IND 125
After 20 overs
NZ 168IND 183
Ranges cover roughly a normal spread of outcomes for Hagley Oval. A collapse or a big partnership can sit well outside them.
Team details
New Zealand's edge is their pace attack, while India's is their batting depth. The side whose strength suits Hagley Oval gets the first say.
New Zealand come in with disciplined seam bowling, sharp fielding and a batting order that rarely panics. In this T20I, their pace attack is their strongest suit.
Hagley Oval suits their pace group. Familiar home conditions help their planning. Their key question is how they handle India's batting depth.
India come in with a deep batting order, high-quality spin and a pace attack that peaks with the new ball. In this T20I, their batting depth is their strongest suit.
Hagley Oval suits their pace group. Their key question is how they handle New Zealand's pace attack.
Hagley Oval is a ground where seam and swing are on offer and the boundaries are big. Our surface tag for this match is green / seam, with a scoring index of 3 out of 5.
Bowling first is usually favoured while there is still moisture and movement on offer.
Changeable weather is normal, and a cool, overcast morning suits the seamers.
Venue: Hagley Oval, Christchurch. Surface tags are editorial estimates and can change on the day.
Market guide
The markets most followers look at for New Zealand vs India, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.
A straight pick on which team wins. In limited-overs cricket there are two outcomes, plus a tie or no result.
Model split: New Zealand 38%, India 62%.
How this market worksA market on the coin toss that settles before play starts.
Toss lean is to bowl first on this surface.
How this market worksA session-style line on how many runs a side scores in the first 6 overs.
New Zealand 46–53, India 50–57.
How this market worksOver-or-under lines on a side's final first-innings score.
New Zealand 156–181, India 169–196.
How this market worksPicks the leading run-scorer or wicket-taker for a team or the match.
Lockie Ferguson and Devon Conway are on our watchlist for New Zealand.
How this market worksPrices move ball by ball with wickets, run rate and required rate.
New Zealand usually see the biggest swing if they take early wickets.
How this market worksBetting tips
Practical points to check before you act. None of these is a guarantee.
Read the surface before the toss
Hagley Oval is tagged green / seam. Early movement usually favours the bowlers, so expect early wickets.
Wait for the toss
The lean is to bowl first. If a captain does the opposite, treat it as new information and check the split again before you act.
Trade the powerplay and the death overs separately
Our projection puts the powerplay at 46–53 for New Zealand and 50–57 for India, and the death overs at 49–58 and 53–63.
Check the team news
Playing XIs are announced close to the toss. A missing key player, such as Lockie Ferguson or Mohammed Shami, moves this model by several points.
Set a limit first
Decide what you can afford before the match starts and stop when you reach it. No model, tip or past result guarantees an outcome.
The case for this match
New Zealand keep it interesting
India are ahead at 62%, but New Zealand have enough in their pace attack to make the market move quickly.
Match 1 of 12 in the India tour of New Zealand
Series context shapes selection and tactics. Opening matches set the tone, and prices are often wider before form is clear.
Green / seam conditions add an edge
On a green / seam surface the early overs tend to carry the most information, so live markets can move quickly.
Depth of markets
A T20I at Hagley Oval normally carries match odds, toss, session runs and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.
For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.
Same series
Read before you follow
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Events
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Analysis
Find the 4th T20 between India and New Zealand on Gold365 using the numbered fixture - this page makes no score prediction.
Keep exploring
Answers
Our model leans India at 62% against New Zealand at 38%, a clear lean. It is based on team ratings and conditions at Hagley Oval, and it is not a guarantee.
Hagley Oval is a ground where seam and swing are on offer and the boundaries are big. We tag it green / seam with a scoring index of 3 out of 5. Bowling first is usually favoured while there is still moisture and movement on offer.
Our model projects New Zealand at 156–181 and India at 169–196 for the first-innings total. Treat these as ranges, not promises.
The lean is to bowl first. Early movement makes bowling first attractive while the surface still has life.
It is listed for Thursday 22 October 2026, with a scheduled start of 19:30 IST, at Hagley Oval, Christchurch. Cricket schedules in our source list a date window for each series, so this day is a planning date. Confirm the exact day with the host board before you plan around it.
Our watchlist has Lockie Ferguson (New Zealand, swing threat), Devon Conway (New Zealand, gloveman with power), Mohammed Shami (India, powerplay wickets), KL Rahul (India, gloveman with power). These are reference names and not confirmed selections. The playing XI is announced close to the toss.
New Zealand play at home, which our model counts as a small edge because they know the surface and conditions.
A T20I gives each side 20 overs. The powerplay and death overs carry most of the swing.
No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.
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Ask on WhatsAppPercentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.
