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Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.

Football · Match 26 · Group B15:00 ET

Canada vs SpainCAN vs ESP Match 26 prediction, projected score & key players

Canada

Projected

0:1

HT 0-0

Spain

CAN 22%Draw 26%52% ESP
Kick-off
15:00 ET
12:30 am IST (25 Jun)
Venue
BC Place, Vancouver
Model lean
Spain · 52%
Jun 202624Wed

Canada vs Spain (Match 26, Group B) at BC Place on 24 Jun 2026: our model leans Spain at 52% and projects 0-1 after 90 minutes.

Team details

Team details for Canada vs Spain

Spain are stronger in both attack (89/100) and defence (85/100), so the question is whether Canada can disrupt their rhythm.

Canada

Expected shape 4-4-2

Attack74
Midfield72
Defence68
Strength
Chance quality and finishing
Vulnerability
Space behind the back line

Canada are expected to line up in a 4-4-2 shape, with explosive pace down the flanks, aggressive transitions and a defence that can be tested. Their best unit in this match is the attack.

Familiar surroundings help their planning. The key question is how they handle Spain's territory and control of the midfield, while protecting against space behind the back line.

Spain

Expected shape 4-3-3

Attack89
Midfield92
Defence85
Strength
Territory and control of the midfield
Vulnerability
Space behind the back line

Spain are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 shape, with possession-first football, short passing triangles and a midfield that decides where the game is played. Their best unit in this match is the midfield.

The key question is how they handle Canada's chance quality and finishing, while protecting against space behind the back line.

Ratings are editorial estimates on a 0 to 100 scale and formations are expected shapes, not confirmed line-ups.

Prediction board

Canada vs Spain prediction

Full-time result, goals and handicap lines from our indicative model. Reference figures, not live prices.

CAN win

22%

Draw

26%

ESP win

52%

Model lean

Both teams to score

52%

A clean sheet is a real possibility.

Over 2.5 goals

50%

Combined expected goals: 2.7.

Asian handicap

Spain -0.75

Spain carry the handicap on an expected goal gap of 0.7.

First-goal window

11–46'

Busiest goal spell: 61–75'. Chance of 0-0: 7%.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Spain get the clear nod at 52%, with Canada at 22% and the draw at 26%. It is a lean, not a lock.

Lean: SpainProjected score: 0-1HT/FT: ESP / ESPHome side: Canada

BC Place hosts Canada against Spain in Match 26, Group B, number 26 of 36 in this part of the schedule. It is listed for Wednesday 24 June 2026, with kick-off at 15:00 ET, which is 12:30 am IST (25 Jun) in India. Canada are playing in their own country, which our model counts as a small edge.

Spain are stronger in both attack (89/100) and defence (85/100), so the question is whether Canada can disrupt their rhythm. Two names that could tilt it are Jonathan David for Canada and Álvaro Morata for Spain.

BC Place is a roofed stadium with a retractable lid, so conditions are cool, dry and controlled. Our model projects 0-1 at full time on expected goals of 1.0 for Canada and 1.7 for Spain, with the first goal typically arriving between minutes 11–46.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

Canada 22%, draw 26%, Spain 52% over 90 minutes. That is a clear gap rather than a lock.

Model lean

Spain

52% to win · 30-point gap

CAN 22%Draw 26%52% ESP

The split comes from attack, midfield and defence ratings for both teams, adjusted for BC Place and Canada's home edge. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.

Spain's strongest unit is territory and control of the midfield, and Canada's weakest point is space behind the back line. That is the pairing to watch as the game settles.

Confirmed line-ups are usually published about an hour before kick-off, so check the split again once the teams are named.

CanadaSpain
  • 45AttackChance creation and finishing55
  • 44Midfield controlTerritory, tempo and duels56
  • 44DefenceShape, aerial strength and keeping shots out56
  • 45Form & momentumOverall rating with a match-day adjustment55
  • 60Host advantageCanada play in their own country40

Impact names

Key players to watch

Six names our model expects to shape Canada vs Spain, with an impact score and a chance to score at any time.

Canada

  • Canada

    Wing-back

    Alphonso Davies

    Overlaps and delivers

    Impact80%

    Anytime scorer6%

  • Canada

    Striker

    Jonathan David

    Target for crosses and cut-backs

    Impact88%

    Anytime scorer29%

  • Canada

    Midfielder

    Stephen Eustáquio

    Wins the second ball

    Impact84%

    Anytime scorer8%

Spain

  • Spain

    Midfielder

    Pedri

    Controls territory

    Impact86%

    Anytime scorer12%

  • Spain

    Striker

    Álvaro Morata

    Target for crosses and cut-backs

    Impact88%

    Anytime scorer43%

  • Spain

    Winger

    Lamine Yamal

    Supplies the crosses

    Impact82%

    Anytime scorer28%

These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed line-up. Check the official team announcement about an hour before kick-off.

Scoreboard model

Projected score, HT/FT & goal markets

Projected score, half-time position and the goal markets for Canada vs Spain, built from expected goals of 1.0 for Canada and 1.7 for Spain.

Projected scoreboard

Full time

0-1

Half time

0-0

Likeliest scorelines

  • 1-113%
  • 0-111%
  • 1-210%

Half-time result: Canada 20%, draw 42%, Spain 38%.

Projected match stats for Canada and Spain
Team statCanadaSpain
Expected goals1.01.7
Possession38%62%
Shots7–911–13
Shots on target3–44–5
Clean sheet36%19%

HT/FT market

Half-time result first, full-time result second.

  • ESP / ESP32%
  • Draw / ESP17%
  • Draw / Draw16%
  • CAN / CAN12%
  • Draw / CAN9%
  • CAN / Draw5%
  • ESP / Draw5%
  • CAN / ESP3%
  • ESP / CAN1%

Goal markets

Total expected goals: 2.7.

  • Both teams to score52%
  • Over 1.5 goals75%
  • Over 2.5 goals50%
  • Over 3.5 goals28%
  • CAN clean sheet36%
  • ESP clean sheet19%
Goal timingChance of at least one goal in each 15-minute window. The opener typically lands between minutes 11–46, and the chance of no goal at all is 7%.
  • 30%
  • 35%
  • 33%
  • 36%
  • 41%
  • 39%
  • 1–15'
  • 16–30'
  • 31–45'
  • 46–60'
  • 61–75'
  • 76–90'

Probabilities come from a Poisson goals model with a small adjustment for low scores. They are indicative reference figures, not live prices, and one red card or early goal can move every line.

Popular football markets for this match

What each market means, with the reference figure from our model. These are not live prices.

  • Match result (1X2)

    A straight pick on a home win, a draw or an away win after 90 minutes.

    Model split: Canada 22%, draw 26%, Spain 52%.

    How this market works

  • Both teams to score

    Yes if each side scores at least once, whatever the final result.

    Model: Yes 52%, No 48%. Clean sheet: Canada 36%, Spain 19%.

    How this market works

  • Over / Under 2.5 goals

    A line on total goals. Over needs three or more, Under needs two or fewer.

    Model: Over 2.5 50%, Under 2.5 50%. Over 1.5 75%, Over 3.5 28%.

    How this market works

  • Half-time / full-time

    Backs the result at half time and at full time together, so there are nine outcomes.

    Likeliest: ESP / ESP 32%, then Draw / ESP 17%.

    How this market works

  • Asian handicap

    Gives one side a head start or a deficit in goals, which removes the draw from many lines.

    Model line: Spain -0.75.

    How this market works

  • Anytime goalscorer

    A player scores at any point in normal time. Own goals do not count in most books.

    Álvaro Morata leads our list at 43%, then Jonathan David (29%) and Lamine Yamal (28%).

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet Canada vs Spain?

  • Canada keep it interesting

    Spain are ahead at 52%, but Canada have enough in their chance quality and finishing to make the market move quickly.

  • Match 26 in the FIFA World Cup 2026

    Group games shape the table, so points and goal difference matter as well as the result.

  • First goal around minutes 11–46

    The model expects the opener between minutes 11–46, and the busiest spell for goals is 61–75. Live markets often move fastest around those moments.

  • Depth of markets

    A World Cup fixture like this normally carries 1X2, both teams to score, over/under, HT/FT, handicap and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Match ticket

Match details

About this fixture: Canada vs Spain at BC Place.

Tournament
FIFA World Cup 2026
Stage
Match 26, Group B
Fixture
Canada vs Spain
Date
Wednesday 24 June 2026
Kick-off
15:00 ET
In India
12:30 am IST (25 Jun)
Venue
BC Place, Vancouver
Format
90 minutes
Projected score
0-1 (half-time 0-0)
Home side
Canada
Referee
To be announced

Venue & conditions

Vancouver

BC Place in Vancouver is a roofed stadium with a retractable lid, so conditions are cool, dry and controlled.

Conditions are controlled or cool, so the pace of the game should hold up for the full 90 minutes.

Canada know the setting best, which our model reflects with a small lift in their expected goals.

Keep following

Other upcoming football matches

More football fixtures from the schedule, starting with games that involve these teams.

All football fixtures in the scheduleSee the full FIFA World Cup 2026 - Group Stage table

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Answers

Questions about Canada vs Spain

  1. Our model leans Spain at 52% against Canada at 22%, with the draw at 26%. It is a clear lean based on team ratings and conditions at BC Place, and it is not a guarantee.

  2. The model projects 0-1 at full time and 0-0 at half time. The next likeliest scorelines are 0-1 (11%) and 1-2 (10%).

  3. The likeliest half-time/full-time combination is ESP / ESP at 32%. Both teams to score is 52%, Over 2.5 goals is 50% and combined expected goals are 2.7.

  4. Our watchlist has Alphonso Davies (Canada, wing-back), Jonathan David (Canada, striker), Stephen Eustáquio (Canada, midfielder), Pedri (Spain, midfielder), Álvaro Morata (Spain, striker), Lamine Yamal (Spain, winger). These are reference names, not confirmed line-ups. Starting XIs are announced about an hour before kick-off.

  5. It is listed for Wednesday 24 June 2026, with kick-off at 15:00 ET, which is 12:30 am IST (25 Jun) in India, at BC Place, Vancouver.

  6. Canada are modelled in a 4-4-2 and Spain in a 4-3-3. Formations are editorial estimates and can change with team news.

  7. The model expects the first goal between minutes 11–46, with 61–75 the busiest 15-minute spell for goals. The chance of a 0-0 draw is 7%.

  8. Canada are playing in their own country, which our model counts as a small lift in expected goals.

  9. The 2026 World Cup has 48 teams in 12 groups of four. The top two in each group and the eight best third-placed teams reach the round of 32.

  10. No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.

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Percentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

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