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Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.

Tennis · ATP · Quarter-finalsATP 250clayProjected pairing

Jannik Sinner vs Grigor DimitrovEFG Swiss Open Gstaad ATP Quarter-finals: prediction, predicted score & key players

Jannik Sinner

Win probability

86%

vs

Grigor Dimitrov

Win probability

14%

Sinner 86%14% Dimitrov
Predicted score
6–2, 6–3

2–0

Start
Order of play TBC
Venue
Gstaad
Format
Best of 3

clay

Jul 202613MonQuarter-finals

EFG Swiss Open Gstaad ATP Quarter-finals on 13 Jul 2026: our projection has Jannik Sinner vs Grigor Dimitrov, with Jannik Sinner the 86% favourite and a predicted score of 6–2, 6–3.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Jannik Sinner is the projected favourite at 86% over Grigor Dimitrov (14%) in the EFG Swiss Open Gstaad ATP Quarter-finals. It is a strong lean, not a lock.

Lean: Jannik SinnerCourt: clayFormat: best of 3Tie-break: 21%

EFG Swiss Open Gstaad ATP moves into the Quarter-finals on Monday 13 July 2026, with play at Gstaad. An ATP 250 on Alpine clay, where the thin mountain air makes the ball travel faster.

Our projection has Jannik Sinner vs Grigor Dimitrov as the headline match of the Quarter-finals. It comes from a projected bracket built on our reference player pool, not from the official draw, so the confirmed pairing can differ. Eight are left in the event, and the four winners go through to the semi-finals.

Jannik Sinner is a flat, powerful baseliner who takes the ball early and returns with pace. Grigor Dimitrov is an elegant all-court player with a one-handed backhand and a smooth serve. On slow, high-bouncing clay, our model leans Jannik Sinner, mainly through surface fit.

Match ticket

Match details

Date
Monday 13 July 2026
Tournament
EFG Swiss Open Gstaad ATP
Round
Quarter-finals
Category
ATP 250
Venue
Gstaad, Switzerland
Main court
Roy Emerson Arena, Gstaad
Surface
clay (slow pace)
Format
Singles, best of three sets
Ranking points
250 ranking points
Tour
ATP tour
Projected pairing
Jannik Sinner vs Grigor Dimitrov (projection, not the official draw)

Pairings are projected. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Projected line-up

EFG Swiss Open Gstaad ATP Quarter-finals predictions

Projected quarter-finals pairings from our bracket model, with the headline match first. Percentages are for the first-named player.

  1. Jannik SinnerITABULGrigor Dimitrov
    86%14%
  2. Holger RuneDENUSATaylor Fritz
    56%44%
  3. Felix Auger-AliassimeCANAUSAlex de Minaur
    55%45%
  4. Ben SheltonUSARUSDaniil Medvedev
    56%44%

Projected title favourite for this event: Jannik Sinner.

These pairings are projections from our reference player pool, not the official draw.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

We compare Jannik Sinner and Grigor Dimitrov on four factors: fit for clay, serve, return and recent form. The combined lean is Jannik Sinner at 86%.

Model lean

Jannik Sinner

86% to win · 72-point gap

Sinner 86%14% Dimitrov

Jannik Sinner is the strong pick because of a clear edge in surface fit. Grigor Dimitrov keeps a 14% chance, mostly through match-day variance.

Projected pairing: this comes from our reference player pool, so treat it as the shape of the round, not a confirmed order of play. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Slow, high-bouncing clay conditions favour patient baseliners and return games, which widens the gap between the two players' styles.

Jannik SinnerGrigor Dimitrov
  • 78Surface fitRated on clay22
  • 64ServeFirst-serve weapon and hold games36
  • 77ReturnBreak-point pressure23
  • 78Recent formLevel over recent events22

Impact names

Key players to watch

Four names our model expects to matter in this round on clay: the two headline players and the next-best names from the projected bracket.

  • Italy

    ATP

    Jannik Sinner

    Baseline power · Elite return

    Impact80%

  • Bulgaria

    ATP

    Grigor Dimitrov

    One-handed backhand · All-court

    Impact61%

  • Canada

    ATP

    Felix Auger-Aliassime

    Big serve · Forehand

    Impact68%

  • Denmark

    ATP

    Holger Rune

    All-court · Drop shot

    Impact67%

Names, countries and playing styles are real. Impact scores are a model reference. They are not a confirmed draw or line-up, so check the official order of play close to the match.

Scoreboard model

Predicted score & set markets

Jannik Sinner is projected to beat Grigor Dimitrov 2–0, 6–2, 6–3. The next table shows how the set and games markets line up around that call.

Predicted score

6–2, 6–3

Jannik Sinner to beat Grigor Dimitrov in 2–0

Every figure is an indicative model, not a live price. Sets and games are derived from a best of three sets format on clay.

Set score probability

  • Sinner 2–058.5%
  • Sinner 2–127.5%
  • Dimitrov 2–18.5%
  • Dimitrov 2–05.5%

  • Total games

    18–24

    Line 20.5. Average 20.8 games.

  • Tie-break

    21%

    About 9% per set.

  • Total aces

    9–13

    Sinner ~6, Dimitrov ~5.

  • Match length

    1h 47m–2h 16m

    About 2.4 sets expected.

Model lean for each tennis market
MarketModel leanWhy
Match winnerJannik Sinner 86%strong lean over Grigor Dimitrov (14%).
Set bettingJannik Sinner 2–02–0 for Sinner carries 59%. A deciding set is 36%.
Total gamesOver 20.5Model average is 20.8 games, in a range of 18–24.
Games handicapSinner −6.5Sinner is projected to win by about 7 more games than Dimitrov.
Tie-break in matchNo 79%About 9% per set on clay.
First set winnerSinner 74%Dimitrov takes at least one set 41% of the time.
Total aces9–13Sinner about 6, Dimitrov about 5.
Match length1h 47m–2h 16mBased on 2.4 sets at clay pace.

Popular tennis betting markets

The markets followers look at most for this match, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.

  • Match winner

    Back the player or nation you expect to win the match, whatever the score.

    Model lean: Jannik Sinner at 86%.

    How this market works

  • Set betting

    Pick the exact set score of a best of three sets match, such as 2–0.

    Most likely: Sinner 2–0, then a deciding set at 36%.

    How this market works

  • Total games

    Bet over or under a games line. Close, serve-led matches push the total up.

    Over 20.5 at a 20.8-game average.

    How this market works

  • Games handicap

    Give or take games to level up a mismatch, so the favourite has to win by a margin.

    Sinner −6.5 sits near the model's margin.

    How this market works

  • Tie-break market

    Predict whether any set reaches 6–6 and needs a tie-break.

    21% for at least one tie-break in the match.

    How this market works

  • Live tennis markets

    Prices move point by point, so first-set and break-of-serve lines can swing quickly.

    Dimitrov steals a set 41% of the time, which is why live lines matter.

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet this match?

  • A clear storyline

    Jannik Sinner carry a strong lean, so the interest is in the score and games markets, where the favourite still has to convert.

  • The court shapes the markets

    Slow, high-bouncing clay. It moves the total games line and the tie-break chance (21%), so surface reading is part of the edge.

  • Depth of markets

    Winner, set score, total games, handicap, tie-break, aces and first-set lines all exist for a ATP 250 quarter-finals, so you can pick the one that matches what you actually think.

  • Live pricing

    A best of three sets match has many turning points. Break points and set momentum move live prices, and our model shows a 41% chance the underdog takes a set.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Fixture guide

About EFG Swiss Open Gstaad ATP Quarter-finals

The EFG Swiss Open Gstaad ATP is a ATP 250 event, worth 250 ranking points to the champion. An ATP 250 on Alpine clay, where the thin mountain air makes the ball travel faster.

The Quarter-finals is played on clay at Roy Emerson Arena, Gstaad. Players start with the opening fixture listed, and the Semi-finals follows on 15 Jul 2026.

Our schedule lists 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 13 Jul 2026, Semi-finals on 15 Jul 2026, Final on 19 Jul 2026. Order of play is published by the tournament the day before and can change with weather.

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All tennis fixturesSee the full EFG Swiss Open Gstaad (ATP) table

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Answers

Questions about Sinner vs Dimitrov

  1. The Quarter-finals is listed for Monday 13 July 2026. Our schedule shows 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 13 Jul 2026, Semi-finals on 15 Jul 2026, Final on 19 Jul 2026.

  2. Our model leans Jannik Sinner at 86%, with Grigor Dimitrov at 14%. This is a projection built on a reference player pool, not the official draw, and it is not a guarantee of the result.

  3. Jannik Sinner is projected to win 2–0, 6–2, 6–3. Straight sets carry 64% and a deciding set 36%.

  4. The Quarter-finals is held in Gstaad, Switzerland, with the main court at Roy Emerson Arena, Gstaad. The surface is clay, which plays slow, so rallies run longer.

  5. Singles matches are best of three sets. Eight are left in the event, and the four winners go through to the semi-finals.

  6. No. Pairings are set by the official draw, which is not part of our schedule data. We show a projected pairing from our reference player pool so you can see the shape of the round. Check the tournament's order of play for the confirmed match.

  7. Jannik Sinner (ITA), Grigor Dimitrov (BUL), Felix Auger-Aliassime (CAN), Holger Rune (DEN). These are reference names from our model and not confirmed line-ups.

  8. Common markets are match winner, set betting, total games, games handicap, tie-break, first-set winner and total aces. Prices move live, and our figures here are model references only.

  9. The champion earns 250 ranking points. The Quarter-finals winner moves a step closer to that total.

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Pairings are a projection from our reference player pool and are not the official draw. Percentages, projected scores and impact figures are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the tournament. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

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