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Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.

Tennis · WTA · Semi-finalsWTA 1000hard courtProjected pairing

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica PegulaChina Open WTA Semi-finals: prediction, predicted score & key players

Aryna Sabalenka

Win probability

77%

vs

Jessica Pegula

Win probability

23%

Sabalenka 77%23% Pegula
Predicted score
6–3, 6–4

2–0

Start
Order of play TBC
Venue
Beijing
Format
Best of 3

hard court

Oct 202605MonSemi-finals

China Open WTA Semi-finals on 5 Oct 2026: our projection has Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula, with Aryna Sabalenka the 77% favourite and a predicted score of 6–3, 6–4.

At a glance

AI match overview

AI overview

Aryna Sabalenka is the projected favourite at 77% over Jessica Pegula (23%) in the China Open WTA Semi-finals. It is a strong lean, not a lock.

Lean: Aryna SabalenkaCourt: hard courtFormat: best of 3Tie-break: 30%

China Open WTA moves into the Semi-finals on Monday 5 October 2026, with play at Beijing. A WTA 1000 on hard courts in Beijing, part of the autumn Asian swing.

Our projection has Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula as the headline match of the Semi-finals. It comes from a projected bracket built on our reference player pool, not from the official draw, so the confirmed pairing can differ. Four are left, and the two winners meet in the final.

Aryna Sabalenka is an ultra-aggressive power baseliner with a huge serve and forehand. Jessica Pegula is a compact baseliner who redirects pace and returns well. On medium-pace hard court, our model leans Aryna Sabalenka, mainly through serve.

Match ticket

Match details

Date
Monday 5 October 2026
Tournament
China Open WTA
Round
Semi-finals
Category
WTA 1000
Venue
Beijing, China
Main court
Diamond Court, National Tennis Center, Beijing
Surface
hard court (medium pace)
Format
Singles, best of three sets
Ranking points
1,000 ranking points
Tour
WTA tour
Projected pairing
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula (projection, not the official draw)

Pairings are projected. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Projected line-up

China Open WTA Semi-finals predictions

Projected semi-finals pairings from our bracket model, with the headline match first. Percentages are for the first-named player.

  1. Aryna SabalenkaBLRUSAJessica Pegula
    77%23%
  2. Coco GauffUSAITAJasmine Paolini
    76%24%

Projected title favourite for this event: Aryna Sabalenka.

These pairings are projections from our reference player pool, not the official draw.

Win probability

Who will win today's match?

We compare Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula on four factors: fit for hard court, serve, return and recent form. The combined lean is Aryna Sabalenka at 77%.

Model lean

Aryna Sabalenka

77% to win · 54-point gap

Sabalenka 77%23% Pegula

Aryna Sabalenka is the strong pick because of a clear edge in serve. Jessica Pegula keeps a 23% chance, mostly through match-day variance.

Projected pairing: this comes from our reference player pool, so treat it as the shape of the round, not a confirmed order of play. The official draw and any withdrawals decide the real match.

Medium-pace hard court conditions sit between serve-led and baseline styles, which widens the gap between the two players' styles.

Aryna SabalenkaJessica Pegula
  • 64Surface fitRated on hard court36
  • 75ServeFirst-serve weapon and hold games25
  • 54ReturnBreak-point pressure46
  • 72Recent formLevel over recent events28

Impact names

Key players to watch

Four names our model expects to matter in this round on hard court: the two headline players and the next-best names from the projected bracket.

  • Belarus

    WTA

    Aryna Sabalenka

    Power · Big serve

    Impact82%

  • United States

    WTA

    Jessica Pegula

    Consistency · Return

    Impact73%

  • United States

    WTA

    Coco Gauff

    Defence · Athletic

    Impact77%

  • Poland

    WTA

    Iga Swiatek

    Clay · Topspin

    Impact76%

Names, countries and playing styles are real. Impact scores are a model reference. They are not a confirmed draw or line-up, so check the official order of play close to the match.

Scoreboard model

Predicted score & set markets

Aryna Sabalenka is projected to beat Jessica Pegula 2–0, 6–3, 6–4. The next table shows how the set and games markets line up around that call.

Predicted score

6–3, 6–4

Aryna Sabalenka to beat Jessica Pegula in 2–0

Every figure is an indicative model, not a live price. Sets and games are derived from a best of three sets format on hard court.

Set score probability

  • Sabalenka 2–047.5%
  • Sabalenka 2–129.5%
  • Pegula 2–113.3%
  • Pegula 2–09.7%

  • Total games

    20–26

    Line 22.5. Average 22.7 games.

  • Tie-break

    30%

    About 13% per set.

  • Total aces

    11–17

    Sabalenka ~9, Pegula ~5.

  • Match length

    1h 38m–2h 04m

    About 2.4 sets expected.

Model lean for each tennis market
MarketModel leanWhy
Match winnerAryna Sabalenka 77%strong lean over Jessica Pegula (23%).
Set bettingAryna Sabalenka 2–02–0 for Sabalenka carries 48%. A deciding set is 43%.
Total gamesOver 22.5Model average is 22.7 games, in a range of 20–26.
Games handicapSabalenka −4.5Sabalenka is projected to win by about 5 more games than Pegula.
Tie-break in matchNo 70%About 13% per set on hard court.
First set winnerSabalenka 67%Pegula takes at least one set 52% of the time.
Total aces11–17Sabalenka about 9, Pegula about 5.
Match length1h 38m–2h 04mBased on 2.4 sets at hard court pace.

Popular tennis betting markets

The markets followers look at most for this match, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.

  • Match winner

    Back the player or nation you expect to win the match, whatever the score.

    Model lean: Aryna Sabalenka at 77%.

    How this market works

  • Set betting

    Pick the exact set score of a best of three sets match, such as 2–0.

    Most likely: Sabalenka 2–0, then a deciding set at 43%.

    How this market works

  • Total games

    Bet over or under a games line. Close, serve-led matches push the total up.

    Over 22.5 at a 22.7-game average.

    How this market works

  • Games handicap

    Give or take games to level up a mismatch, so the favourite has to win by a margin.

    Sabalenka −4.5 sits near the model's margin.

    How this market works

  • Tie-break market

    Predict whether any set reaches 6–6 and needs a tie-break.

    30% for at least one tie-break in the match.

    How this market works

  • Live tennis markets

    Prices move point by point, so first-set and break-of-serve lines can swing quickly.

    Pegula steals a set 52% of the time, which is why live lines matter.

    How this market works

The case for this match

Why bet this match?

  • A clear storyline

    Aryna Sabalenka carry a strong lean, so the interest is in the score and games markets, where the favourite still has to convert.

  • The court shapes the markets

    Medium-pace hard court. It moves the total games line and the tie-break chance (30%), so surface reading is part of the edge.

  • Depth of markets

    Winner, set score, total games, handicap, tie-break, aces and first-set lines all exist for a WTA 1000 semi-finals, so you can pick the one that matches what you actually think.

  • Live pricing

    A best of three sets match has many turning points. Break points and set momentum move live prices, and our model shows a 52% chance the underdog takes a set.

For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.

Fixture guide

About China Open WTA Semi-finals

The China Open WTA is a WTA 1000 event, worth 1,000 ranking points to the champion. A WTA 1000 on hard courts in Beijing, part of the autumn Asian swing.

The Semi-finals is played on hard court at Diamond Court, National Tennis Center, Beijing. Players arrive after the Quarter-finals on 1 Oct 2026, and the Final follows on 11 Oct 2026.

Our schedule lists 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 1 Oct 2026, Semi-finals on 5 Oct 2026, Final on 11 Oct 2026. Order of play is published by the tournament the day before and can change with weather.

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Answers

Questions about Sabalenka vs Pegula

  1. The Semi-finals is listed for Monday 5 October 2026. Our schedule shows 3 rounds for this event: Quarter-finals on 1 Oct 2026, Semi-finals on 5 Oct 2026, Final on 11 Oct 2026.

  2. Our model leans Aryna Sabalenka at 77%, with Jessica Pegula at 23%. This is a projection built on a reference player pool, not the official draw, and it is not a guarantee of the result.

  3. Aryna Sabalenka is projected to win 2–0, 6–3, 6–4. Straight sets carry 57% and a deciding set 43%.

  4. The Semi-finals is held in Beijing, China, with the main court at Diamond Court, National Tennis Center, Beijing. The surface is hard court, which plays at a medium pace.

  5. Singles matches are best of three sets. Four are left, and the two winners meet in the final.

  6. No. Pairings are set by the official draw, which is not part of our schedule data. We show a projected pairing from our reference player pool so you can see the shape of the round. Check the tournament's order of play for the confirmed match.

  7. Aryna Sabalenka (BLR), Jessica Pegula (USA), Coco Gauff (USA), Iga Swiatek (POL). These are reference names from our model and not confirmed line-ups.

  8. Common markets are match winner, set betting, total games, games handicap, tie-break, first-set winner and total aces. Prices move live, and our figures here are model references only.

  9. The champion earns 1,000 ranking points. The Semi-finals winner moves a step closer to that total.

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Pairings are a projection from our reference player pool and are not the official draw. Percentages, projected scores and impact figures are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the tournament. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.

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