AI overview · What this page shows
Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.
New Zealand
Day-one score
313–380
Sri Lanka
Day-one score
292–354
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka (1st Test) at Bay Oval on 12 Feb 2027: our model leans New Zealand at 60% on a flat / batting surface, with a projected day-one score after 90 overs of 313–380.
At a glance
AI overview
New Zealand start as the favourite in the 1st Test at Bay Oval, but 28% of our model's weight sits on a draw, so the first two sessions matter most.
Bay Oval hosts New Zealand against Sri Lanka in the 1st Test, number 7 in an 8-match Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027. It is listed for Friday 12 February 2027, with the start at 19:30 IST. New Zealand have home conditions on their side, which our model counts as a small edge.
New Zealand's edge is their batting depth, while Sri Lanka's is their spin attack. The side whose strength suits Bay Oval gets the first say. Bay Oval is a true batting surface with quick scoring in the powerplay, so we expect a flat / batting surface with a first-day score around 313–380 for New Zealand and 292–354 for Sri Lanka.
Changeable weather is normal, and a cool, overcast morning suits the seamers. Because a draw is a live result here (28%), watch how much time is lost before you read anything into a single session.
Match ticket
Cricket dates follow each series window, so confirm the exact day with the host board.
Win probability
New Zealand 60%, draw 28%, Sri Lanka 12%. A draw carries real weight in a Test, so read the split as three outcomes rather than two.
Model lean
New Zealand
60% to win · 48-point gap
The split comes from batting, pace and spin ratings for both teams, adjusted for Bay Oval and New Zealand's home conditions. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.
On a true surface, New Zealand's batting depth gets the extra weight in the model.
Rain and bad light matter more in a longer match, so the draw figure moves first when the forecast changes.
Impact names
Four names our model expects to move this match on flat / batting conditions.
New Zealand
Batter
Glenn Phillips
Boundary-hitter on a true pitch
New Zealand
All-rounder
Daryl Mitchell
Partnership breaker
Sri Lanka
Wicketkeeper
Kusal Mendis
Anchor with the gloves
Sri Lanka
Batter
Charith Asalanka
Top-order firepower
These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed selection. Check the official team announcement close to the toss.
Scoreboard model
Projected day-one score by session for each side, followed by the cumulative curve across 90 overs.
| Session | New Zealand | Sri Lanka |
|---|---|---|
| Session 1Overs 1–30 | 99–118 | 92–110 |
| Session 2Overs 31–60 | 109–131 | 102–122 |
| Session 3Overs 61–90 | 105–131 | 98–122 |
| Day one, 90 overs | 313–380 | 292–354 |
Overs bowled
After 30 overs
NZ 109SL 101
After 60 overs
NZ 229SL 213
After 90 overs
NZ 347SL 323
Sessions are modelled at 30 overs each, and the totals are for the first 90 overs of a first innings.
Team details
New Zealand's edge is their batting depth, while Sri Lanka's is their spin attack. The side whose strength suits Bay Oval gets the first say.
New Zealand come in with disciplined seam bowling, sharp fielding and a batting order that rarely panics. In this Test, their batting depth is their strongest suit.
Bay Oval is a fair test rather than an obvious fit. Familiar home conditions help their planning. Their key question is how they handle Sri Lanka's spin attack.
Sri Lanka come in with a spin-first identity, with wrist-spin and slow surfaces at the heart of their plans. In this Test, their spin attack is their strongest suit.
Bay Oval is a fair test rather than an obvious fit. Their key question is how they handle New Zealand's batting depth.
Bay Oval is a true batting surface with quick scoring in the powerplay. Our surface tag for this match is flat / batting, with a scoring index of 4 out of 5.
A true surface lets either side control the game, so the toss matters less.
Changeable weather is normal, and a cool, overcast morning suits the seamers.
Venue: Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui. Surface tags are editorial estimates and can change on the day.
Market guide
The markets most followers look at for New Zealand vs Sri Lanka, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.
Backs a team to win, or the draw. Unlike limited-overs cricket the market has three outcomes.
Model split: New Zealand 60%, draw 28%, Sri Lanka 12%.
How this market worksA separate market on who wins the coin toss. It settles before the first ball.
Toss lean is to bat first, so watch which captain has to choose.
How this market worksLines on how many runs a side scores in a session, or in a fixed number of overs.
Session 1: New Zealand 99–118, Sri Lanka 92–110.
How this market worksBets on which side leads after both first innings, or by how many runs.
Day-one projection: New Zealand 313–380, Sri Lanka 292–354.
How this market worksPicks the leading run-scorer for a team or for the match.
Glenn Phillips and Kusal Mendis lead our watchlist.
How this market worksPrices move ball by ball with wickets, weather and session results.
Rain delays reset the draw price first, so check the covers.
How this market worksBetting tips
Practical points to check before you act. None of these is a guarantee.
Read the surface before the toss
Bay Oval is tagged flat / batting. Expect scores at or above the ground average once batters are set.
Wait for the toss
The lean is to bat first. If a captain does the opposite, treat it as new information and check the split again before you act.
Watch each session, not just the result
Sessions move prices in a Test. Our projection puts New Zealand at 99–118 in Session 1 against Sri Lanka's 92–110.
Check the team news
Playing XIs are announced close to the toss. A missing key player, such as Glenn Phillips or Kusal Mendis, moves this model by several points.
Set a limit first
Decide what you can afford before the match starts and stop when you reach it. No model, tip or past result guarantees an outcome.
The case for this match
Sri Lanka keep it interesting
New Zealand are ahead at 60%, but Sri Lanka have enough in their spin attack to make the market move quickly.
Match 7 of 8 in the Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand
Series context shapes selection and tactics. Results earlier in the series give a clearer read on form and combinations.
Flat / batting conditions add an edge
On a flat / batting surface the big overs tend to carry the most information, so live markets can move quickly.
Depth of markets
A Test at Bay Oval normally carries match odds, toss, session runs and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.
For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.
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Answers
Our model gives New Zealand 60%, Sri Lanka 12% and the draw 28%. New Zealand are the strong favourite, but this is a Test and results can change quickly with weather and sessions. It is an indicative estimate, not advice.
Bay Oval is a true batting surface with quick scoring in the powerplay. We tag it flat / batting with a scoring index of 4 out of 5. A true surface lets either side control the game, so the toss matters less.
Our model projects New Zealand at 313–380 and Sri Lanka at 292–354 for the day-one score after 90 overs. Treat these as ranges, not promises.
The lean is to bat first. A true surface rewards batting first, when the pitch is at its best.
It is listed for Friday 12 February 2027, with a scheduled start of 19:30 IST, at Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui. Cricket schedules in our source list a date window for each series, so this day is a planning date. Confirm the exact day with the host board before you plan around it.
Our watchlist has Glenn Phillips (New Zealand, boundary-hitter on a true pitch), Daryl Mitchell (New Zealand, partnership breaker), Kusal Mendis (Sri Lanka, anchor with the gloves), Charith Asalanka (Sri Lanka, top-order firepower). These are reference names and not confirmed selections. The playing XI is announced close to the toss.
New Zealand play at home, which our model counts as a small edge because they know the surface and conditions.
A Test can last up to five days with two innings each, so a draw is a real result and sessions matter.
No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.
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Ask on WhatsAppPercentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.
