AI overview · What this page shows
Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.
India
Projected
294–341
Sri Lanka
Projected
248–289
India vs Sri Lanka (1st ODI) at Arun Jaitley Stadium on 13 Dec 2026: our model leans India at 82% on a dry / turning surface, with a projected first-innings total of 294–341.
At a glance
AI overview
India get the nod at 82% in this 1st ODI, with Sri Lanka at 18%. It is a strong lean, not a lock.
Arun Jaitley Stadium hosts India against Sri Lanka in the 1st ODI, number 1 in a 6-match Sri Lanka tour of India, 2026. It is listed for Sunday 13 December 2026, with the start at 19:30 IST. India have home conditions on their side, which our model counts as a small edge.
Both sides lean on their spin attack, so the contest is likely to be decided by whoever handles the middle-overs squeeze better. Arun Jaitley Stadium is a slower surface that grips for spin in the middle overs, so we expect a dry / turning surface with a first-innings score around 294–341 for India and 248–289 for Sri Lanka.
Dry weather, with the surface expected to slow and grip as the match goes on. The toss lean is to bowl first. Dew under lights makes the ball harder to grip, so chasing tends to be the easier task.
Match ticket
Cricket dates follow each series window, so confirm the exact day with the host board.
Win probability
India 82%, Sri Lanka 18%. The strong gap leaves room for an upset.
Model lean
India
82% to win · 64-point gap
The split comes from batting, pace and spin ratings for both teams, adjusted for Arun Jaitley Stadium and India's home conditions. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.
On a turning surface, India's spinners get the extra weight in the model.
The toss can shift this by a few points either way, so check the split again once the captains have spoken.
Impact names
Four names our model expects to move this match on dry / turning conditions.
India
Spinner
Kuldeep Yadav
Middle-overs control
India
All-rounder
Hardik Pandya
Balance of the XI
Sri Lanka
Spinner
Maheesh Theekshana
Middle-overs control
Sri Lanka
Fast bowler
Matheesha Pathirana
Death-overs specialist
These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed selection. Check the official team announcement close to the toss.
Scoreboard model
Projected runs for each phase of the 50-over innings, followed by the cumulative over-by-over curve.
| Phase | India | Sri Lanka |
|---|---|---|
| PowerplayOvers 1–10 | 56–64 | 47–54 |
| Middle oversOvers 11–40 | 154–177 | 130–150 |
| Death oversOvers 41–50 | 84–100 | 71–85 |
| First innings | 294–341 | 248–289 |
Overs bowled
After 10 overs
IND 60SL 51
After 40 overs
IND 226SL 191
After 50 overs
IND 318SL 269
Ranges cover roughly a normal spread of outcomes for Arun Jaitley Stadium. A collapse or a big partnership can sit well outside them.
Team details
Both sides lean on their spin attack, so the contest is likely to be decided by whoever handles the middle-overs squeeze better.
India come in with a deep batting order, high-quality spin and a pace attack that peaks with the new ball. In this ODI, their spin attack is their strongest suit.
Arun Jaitley Stadium suits their spinners. Familiar home conditions help their planning. Their key question is how they handle Sri Lanka's spin attack.
Sri Lanka come in with a spin-first identity, with wrist-spin and slow surfaces at the heart of their plans. In this ODI, their spin attack is their strongest suit.
Arun Jaitley Stadium suits their spinners. Their key question is how they handle India's spin attack.
Arun Jaitley Stadium is a slower surface that grips for spin in the middle overs. Our surface tag for this match is dry / turning, with a scoring index of 3 out of 5.
Batting first gets runs on the board before the surface slows and grips.
Dry weather, with the surface expected to slow and grip as the match goes on.
Venue: Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi. Surface tags are editorial estimates and can change on the day.
Market guide
The markets most followers look at for India vs Sri Lanka, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.
A straight pick on which team wins. In limited-overs cricket there are two outcomes, plus a tie or no result.
Model split: India 82%, Sri Lanka 18%.
How this market worksA market on the coin toss that settles before play starts.
Toss lean is to bowl first on this surface.
How this market worksA session-style line on how many runs a side scores in the first 10 overs.
India 56–64, Sri Lanka 47–54.
How this market worksOver-or-under lines on a side's final first-innings score.
India 294–341, Sri Lanka 248–289.
How this market worksPicks the leading run-scorer or wicket-taker for a team or the match.
Kuldeep Yadav and Hardik Pandya are on our watchlist for India.
How this market worksPrices move ball by ball with wickets, run rate and required rate.
Sri Lanka usually see the biggest swing if they take early wickets.
How this market worksBetting tips
Practical points to check before you act. None of these is a guarantee.
Read the surface before the toss
Arun Jaitley Stadium is tagged dry / turning. Expect the pitch to slow, so runs come harder later in the match.
Wait for the toss
The lean is to bowl first. If a captain does the opposite, treat it as new information and check the split again before you act.
Trade the powerplay and the death overs separately
Our projection puts the powerplay at 56–64 for India and 47–54 for Sri Lanka, and the death overs at 84–100 and 71–85.
Check the team news
Playing XIs are announced close to the toss. A missing key player, such as Kuldeep Yadav or Maheesh Theekshana, moves this model by several points.
Set a limit first
Decide what you can afford before the match starts and stop when you reach it. No model, tip or past result guarantees an outcome.
The case for this match
Sri Lanka keep it interesting
India are ahead at 82%, but Sri Lanka have enough in their spin attack to make the market move quickly.
Match 1 of 6 in the Sri Lanka tour of India
Series context shapes selection and tactics. Opening matches set the tone, and prices are often wider before form is clear.
Dry / turning conditions add an edge
On a dry / turning surface the middle overs tend to carry the most information, so live markets can move quickly.
Depth of markets
A ODI at Arun Jaitley Stadium normally carries match odds, toss, session runs and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.
For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.
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Answers
Our model leans India at 82% against Sri Lanka at 18%, a strong lean. It is based on team ratings and conditions at Arun Jaitley Stadium, and it is not a guarantee.
Arun Jaitley Stadium is a slower surface that grips for spin in the middle overs. We tag it dry / turning with a scoring index of 3 out of 5. Batting first gets runs on the board before the surface slows and grips.
Our model projects India at 294–341 and Sri Lanka at 248–289 for the first-innings total. Treat these as ranges, not promises.
The lean is to bowl first. Dew under lights makes the ball harder to grip, so chasing tends to be the easier task.
It is listed for Sunday 13 December 2026, with a scheduled start of 19:30 IST, at Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi. Cricket schedules in our source list a date window for each series, so this day is a planning date. Confirm the exact day with the host board before you plan around it.
Our watchlist has Kuldeep Yadav (India, middle-overs control), Hardik Pandya (India, balance of the xi), Maheesh Theekshana (Sri Lanka, middle-overs control), Matheesha Pathirana (Sri Lanka, death-overs specialist). These are reference names and not confirmed selections. The playing XI is announced close to the toss.
India play at home, which our model counts as a small edge because they know the surface and conditions.
An ODI gives each side 50 overs. The middle overs shape the platform and the final ten decide close games.
No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.
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Ask on WhatsAppPercentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.
