AI overview · What this page shows
Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.
England
Day-one score
265–322
Pakistan
Day-one score
260–315
England vs Pakistan (1st Test) at Headingley on 19 Aug 2026: our model leans England at 71% on a green / seam surface, with a projected day-one score after 90 overs of 265–322.
At a glance
AI overview
England start as the favourite in the 1st Test at Headingley, but 16% of our model's weight sits on a draw, so the first two sessions matter most.
The Pakistan tour of England, 2026 reaches match 1 of 3 when England face Pakistan in a Test at Headingley. It is listed for Wednesday 19 August 2026, with the start at 19:30 IST. England have home conditions on their side, which our model counts as a small edge.
Both sides lean on their pace attack, so the contest is likely to be decided by whoever handles the new ball better. Headingley is a swing-friendly ground where the ball can move a long way under cloud, so we expect a green / seam surface with a first-day score around 265–322 for England and 260–315 for Pakistan.
Summer cloud is common, and a damp start can bring seam and swing before the surface flattens. Because a draw is a live result here (16%), watch how much time is lost before you read anything into a single session.
Match ticket
Cricket dates follow each series window, so confirm the exact day with the host board.
Win probability
England 71%, draw 16%, Pakistan 13%. A draw carries real weight in a Test, so read the split as three outcomes rather than two.
Model lean
England
71% to win · 58-point gap
The split comes from batting, pace and spin ratings for both teams, adjusted for Headingley and England's home conditions. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.
On a green / seam surface, Pakistan's pace group gets the extra weight in the model.
Rain and bad light matter more in a longer match, so the draw figure moves first when the forecast changes.
Impact names
Four names our model expects to move this match on green / seam conditions.
England
Fast bowler
Mark Wood
New-ball burst
England
Wicketkeeper
Jonny Bairstow
Anchor with the gloves
Pakistan
Fast bowler
Naseem Shah
Powerplay wickets
Pakistan
Wicketkeeper
Mohammad Rizwan
Anchor with the gloves
These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed selection. Check the official team announcement close to the toss.
Scoreboard model
Projected day-one score by session for each side, followed by the cumulative curve across 90 overs.
| Session | England | Pakistan |
|---|---|---|
| Session 1Overs 1–30 | 84–100 | 82–98 |
| Session 2Overs 31–60 | 93–111 | 91–108 |
| Session 3Overs 61–90 | 88–111 | 87–109 |
| Day one, 90 overs | 265–322 | 260–315 |
Overs bowled
After 30 overs
ENG 92PAK 90
After 60 overs
ENG 194PAK 189
After 90 overs
ENG 293PAK 287
Sessions are modelled at 30 overs each, and the totals are for the first 90 overs of a first innings.
Team details
Both sides lean on their pace attack, so the contest is likely to be decided by whoever handles the new ball better.
England come in with an aggressive, front-foot batting group and a pace attack that likes helpful conditions. In this Test, their pace attack is their strongest suit.
Headingley suits their pace group. Familiar home conditions help their planning. Their key question is how they handle Pakistan's pace attack.
Pakistan come in with a pace-heavy bowling group and a batting order that swings between brilliant and brittle. In this Test, their pace attack is their strongest suit.
Headingley suits their pace group. Their key question is how they handle England's pace attack.
Headingley is a swing-friendly ground where the ball can move a long way under cloud. Our surface tag for this match is green / seam, with a scoring index of 3 out of 5.
Sides that bowl first tend to get the best of the conditions.
Summer cloud is common, and a damp start can bring seam and swing before the surface flattens.
Venue: Headingley, Leeds. Surface tags are editorial estimates and can change on the day.
Market guide
The markets most followers look at for England vs Pakistan, with what our model says for each. These are reference figures, not live prices.
Backs a team to win, or the draw. Unlike limited-overs cricket the market has three outcomes.
Model split: England 71%, draw 16%, Pakistan 13%.
How this market worksA separate market on who wins the coin toss. It settles before the first ball.
Toss lean is to bowl first, so watch which captain has to choose.
How this market worksLines on how many runs a side scores in a session, or in a fixed number of overs.
Session 1: England 84–100, Pakistan 82–98.
How this market worksBets on which side leads after both first innings, or by how many runs.
Day-one projection: England 265–322, Pakistan 260–315.
How this market worksPicks the leading run-scorer for a team or for the match.
Mark Wood and Naseem Shah lead our watchlist.
How this market worksPrices move ball by ball with wickets, weather and session results.
Rain delays reset the draw price first, so check the covers.
How this market worksBetting tips
Practical points to check before you act. None of these is a guarantee.
Read the surface before the toss
Headingley is tagged green / seam. Early movement usually favours the bowlers, so expect early wickets.
Wait for the toss
The lean is to bowl first. If a captain does the opposite, treat it as new information and check the split again before you act.
Watch each session, not just the result
Sessions move prices in a Test. Our projection puts England at 84–100 in Session 1 against Pakistan's 82–98.
Check the team news
Playing XIs are announced close to the toss. A missing key player, such as Mark Wood or Naseem Shah, moves this model by several points.
Set a limit first
Decide what you can afford before the match starts and stop when you reach it. No model, tip or past result guarantees an outcome.
The case for this match
Pakistan keep it interesting
England are ahead at 71%, but Pakistan have enough in their pace attack to make the market move quickly.
Match 1 of 3 in the Pakistan tour of England
Series context shapes selection and tactics. Opening matches set the tone, and prices are often wider before form is clear.
Green / seam conditions add an edge
On a green / seam surface the early overs tend to carry the most information, so live markets can move quickly.
Depth of markets
A Test at Headingley normally carries match odds, toss, session runs and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.
For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.
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Keep exploring
Answers
Our model gives England 71%, Pakistan 13% and the draw 16%. England are the strong favourite, but this is a Test and results can change quickly with weather and sessions. It is an indicative estimate, not advice.
Headingley is a swing-friendly ground where the ball can move a long way under cloud. We tag it green / seam with a scoring index of 3 out of 5. Sides that bowl first tend to get the best of the conditions.
Our model projects England at 265–322 and Pakistan at 260–315 for the day-one score after 90 overs. Treat these as ranges, not promises.
The lean is to bowl first. Moisture and bounce on day one usually make the first session the best time to bowl.
It is listed for Wednesday 19 August 2026, with a scheduled start of 19:30 IST, at Headingley, Leeds. Cricket schedules in our source list a date window for each series, so this day is a planning date. Confirm the exact day with the host board before you plan around it.
Our watchlist has Mark Wood (England, new-ball burst), Jonny Bairstow (England, anchor with the gloves), Naseem Shah (Pakistan, powerplay wickets), Mohammad Rizwan (Pakistan, anchor with the gloves). These are reference names and not confirmed selections. The playing XI is announced close to the toss.
England play at home, which our model counts as a small edge because they know the surface and conditions.
A Test can last up to five days with two innings each, so a draw is a real result and sessions matter.
No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.
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Ask on WhatsAppPercentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.
