AI overview · What this page shows
Match details with competition, start time and exchange-style back and lay prices where a market is open. Figures move constantly and are published for information only, never as advice or a prediction.
England
Projected
1:0
HT 0-0
Netherlands
England vs Netherlands (Round of 16) at Lumen Field on 6 Jul 2026: our model leans England at 41% and projects 1-0 after 90 minutes.
Team details
England are stronger in both attack (89/100) and defence (86/100), so the question is whether Netherlands can disrupt their rhythm.
Expected shape 4-2-3-1
England are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape, with a balanced squad with creative width, a controlling midfield pair and real strength from set pieces. Their best unit in this match is the attack.
The key question is how they handle Netherlands's a compact, organised back line, while protecting against space behind the back line.
Expected shape 4-3-3
Netherlands are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 shape, with a structured build-up, tall central defenders and forwards who attack the box in numbers. Their best unit in this match is the defence.
The key question is how they handle England's chance quality and finishing, while protecting against holding the midfield against a press.
Ratings are editorial estimates on a 0 to 100 scale and formations are expected shapes, not confirmed line-ups.
Prediction board
Full-time result, goals and handicap lines from our indicative model. Reference figures, not live prices.
ENG win
41%
Model lean
Draw
28%
NED win
31%
Both teams to score
53%
A clean sheet is a real possibility.
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Combined expected goals: 2.6.
Asian handicap
England -0.25
England carry the handicap on an expected goal gap of 0.2.
First-goal window
13–41'
Busiest goal spell: 16–30'. Chance of 0-0: 8%.
At a glance
AI overview
England get the modest nod at 41%, with Netherlands at 31% and the draw at 28%. It is a lean, not a lock.
England face Netherlands in the Round of 16 of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Lumen Field, Seattle. It is listed for Monday 6 July 2026, with kick-off at 18:00 ET, which is 3:30 am IST (7 Jul) in India. It is a neutral venue for both sides, so the model gives neither a home edge.
England are stronger in both attack (89/100) and defence (86/100), so the question is whether Netherlands can disrupt their rhythm. Two names that could tilt it are Harry Kane for England and Cody Gakpo for Netherlands.
Lumen Field is a loud, open-air ground with a cooler, damper climate and a crowd that funnels noise onto the pitch. Our model projects 1-0 at full time on expected goals of 1.4 for England and 1.2 for Netherlands, with the first goal typically arriving between minutes 13–41. Because this is a knockout tie, a level score goes to extra time and penalties, and the model gives England a 56% chance to progress.
Win probability
England 41%, draw 28%, Netherlands 31% over 90 minutes. It is a modest lean, and team news can move it.
Model lean
England
41% to win · 10-point gap
The split comes from attack, midfield and defence ratings for both teams, adjusted for Lumen Field. It is an indicative model, not a live market price and not betting advice.
England's strongest unit is chance quality and finishing, and Netherlands's weakest point is holding the midfield against a press. That is the pairing to watch as the game settles.
Because it is a knockout tie, the model also gives England a 56% chance to progress once extra time and penalties are counted.
Impact names
Six names our model expects to shape England vs Netherlands, with an impact score and a chance to score at any time.
England
Striker
Harry Kane
Main goal threat in the box
Anytime scorer38%
England
Winger
Bukayo Saka
Supplies the crosses
Anytime scorer24%
England
Midfielder
Declan Rice
Wins the second ball
Anytime scorer10%
Netherlands
Forward
Cody Gakpo
Threat on the counter
Anytime scorer30%
Netherlands
Midfielder
Frenkie de Jong
Wins the second ball
Anytime scorer9%
Netherlands
Centre-back
Virgil van Dijk
Anchor of the back line
Anytime scorer6%
These names come from a reference list and are not a confirmed line-up. Check the official team announcement about an hour before kick-off.
Scoreboard model
Projected score, half-time position and the goal markets for England vs Netherlands, built from expected goals of 1.4 for England and 1.2 for Netherlands.
Projected scoreboard
Full time
1-0
Half time
0-0
Likeliest scorelines
Half-time result: England 31%, draw 44%, Netherlands 25%.
| Team stat | England | Netherlands |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Possession | 54% | 46% |
| Shots | 10–12 | 8–10 |
| Shots on target | 4–5 | 3–4 |
| Clean sheet | 25% | 30% |
Half-time result first, full-time result second.
Total expected goals: 2.6.
Probabilities come from a Poisson goals model with a small adjustment for low scores. They are indicative reference figures, not live prices, and one red card or early goal can move every line.
What each market means, with the reference figure from our model. These are not live prices.
A straight pick on a home win, a draw or an away win after 90 minutes.
Model split: England 41%, draw 28%, Netherlands 31%.
How this market worksYes if each side scores at least once, whatever the final result.
Model: Yes 53%, No 47%. Clean sheet: England 25%, Netherlands 30%.
How this market worksA line on total goals. Over needs three or more, Under needs two or fewer.
Model: Over 2.5 47%, Under 2.5 53%. Over 1.5 73%, Over 3.5 26%.
How this market worksBacks the result at half time and at full time together, so there are nine outcomes.
Likeliest: ENG / ENG 24%, then NED / NED 18%.
How this market worksGives one side a head start or a deficit in goals, which removes the draw from many lines.
Model line: England -0.25.
How this market worksA player scores at any point in normal time. Own goals do not count in most books.
Harry Kane leads our list at 38%, then Cody Gakpo (30%) and Bukayo Saka (24%).
How this market worksThe case for this match
A genuinely close contest
With England at 41% and Netherlands at 31%, neither side is far ahead, so prices tend to move a lot on a single goal.
Round of 16 in the FIFA World Cup 2026
A knockout tie carries extra time and penalties, so the qualify market and the 90-minute market can point in different directions.
First goal around minutes 13–41
The model expects the opener between minutes 13–41, and the busiest spell for goals is 16–30. Live markets often move fastest around those moments.
Depth of markets
A World Cup fixture like this normally carries 1X2, both teams to score, over/under, HT/FT, handicap and player markets, so you can follow one game several ways.
For adults 18 and over. Betting can lead to loss, so only use money you can afford to lose.
Match ticket
About this fixture: England vs Netherlands at Lumen Field.
Lumen Field in Seattle is a loud, open-air ground with a cooler, damper climate and a crowd that funnels noise onto the pitch.
Conditions are controlled or cool, so the pace of the game should hold up for the full 90 minutes.
Neither side has home advantage, so squad depth and tactical flexibility carry more weight.
Knockout pairings depend on earlier results. Treat this fixture as a provisional listing and check FIFA's official schedule for the confirmed match-up.
Keep following
More football fixtures from the schedule, starting with games that involve these teams.
England vs Spain
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
View matchGermany vs Netherlands
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
View matchBrazil vs England
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
View matchFrance vs England
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
View matchRead before you follow
Events
There's no Dream11 football XI for a World Cup final on Gold365 — just real 1X2 and totals markets on whichever final fixture is actually scheduled.
Guide
Football on Gold365 is the same OTP ID with the football list open: 1X2, totals, live markets where marked — no second ID, no weekly salary.
Events
Knockout football on Gold365: 90 minutes versus extra time versus to-qualify markets. Watch the stream before going live — no fake bracket predictions.
Keep exploring
Answers
Our model leans England at 41% against Netherlands at 31%, with the draw at 28%. It is a modest lean based on team ratings and conditions at Lumen Field, and it is not a guarantee.
The model projects 1-0 at full time and 0-0 at half time. The next likeliest scorelines are 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9%).
The likeliest half-time/full-time combination is ENG / ENG at 24%. Both teams to score is 53%, Over 2.5 goals is 47% and combined expected goals are 2.6.
Our watchlist has Harry Kane (England, striker), Bukayo Saka (England, winger), Declan Rice (England, midfielder), Cody Gakpo (Netherlands, forward), Frenkie de Jong (Netherlands, midfielder), Virgil van Dijk (Netherlands, centre-back). These are reference names, not confirmed line-ups. Starting XIs are announced about an hour before kick-off.
It is listed for Monday 6 July 2026, with kick-off at 18:00 ET, which is 3:30 am IST (7 Jul) in India, at Lumen Field, Seattle. Knockout pairings depend on earlier results. Treat this fixture as a provisional listing and check FIFA's official schedule for the confirmed match-up.
England are modelled in a 4-2-3-1 and Netherlands in a 4-3-3. Formations are editorial estimates and can change with team news.
The model expects the first goal between minutes 13–41, with 16–30 the busiest 15-minute spell for goals. The chance of a 0-0 draw is 8%.
Yes. Neither England nor Netherlands is at home, so the model does not apply a venue adjustment.
Extra time is played, and a penalty shootout follows if it is still level. Our model gives England a 56% chance to progress.
No. The percentages, projections and market notes are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not advice and not a guarantee. Betting is for adults 18 and over, and you should set a limit before you start.
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Ask on WhatsAppPercentages, projections and player impact scores are an indicative model for information only. They are not live prices, not betting advice and not a guarantee of any result. Dates and times can change, so confirm them with the organiser. For adults 18 and over. Play responsibly and set limits.
